{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2998569780","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","title":"Comparison of Indonesian Imports Forecastingby Limited Period using SARIMA Method","display_name":"Comparison of Indonesian Imports Forecastingby Limited Period using SARIMA Method","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2998569780","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","mag":"2998569780"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","pdf_url":"http://journal2.um.ac.id/index.php/keds/article/download/11100/4974","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210237352","display_name":"Knowledge Engineering and Data Science","issn_l":"2597-4602","issn":["2597-4602","2597-4637"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314921","host_organization_name":"State University of Malang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314921"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["State University of Malang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Knowledge Engineering and Data Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"http://journal2.um.ac.id/index.php/keds/article/download/11100/4974","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080579612","display_name":"Harits Ar Rosyid","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0014-3533"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102893293","display_name":"State University of Malang","ror":"https://ror.org/00ypgyy34","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Harits Ar Rosyid","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007040103","display_name":"Mutyara Whening Aniendya","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102893293","display_name":"State University of Malang","ror":"https://ror.org/00ypgyy34","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mutyara Whening Aniendya","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia","Universitas Negeri Malang"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universitas Negeri Malang","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017188688","display_name":"Heru Wahyu Herwanto","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0796-3596"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102893293","display_name":"State University of Malang","ror":"https://ror.org/00ypgyy34","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Heru Wahyu Herwanto","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia","Universitas Negeri Malang"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universitas Negeri Malang","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102893293"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.8233,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":7,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.78065268,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"2","issue":"2","first_page":"90","last_page":"100"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9902999997138977,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9902999997138977,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.9764999747276306,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13141","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Applications","score":0.9753999710083008,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-integrated-moving-average","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","score":0.9016104340553284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/indonesian","display_name":"Indonesian","score":0.722682774066925},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/christian-ministry","display_name":"Christian ministry","score":0.6159511208534241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/government","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","score":0.4962218403816223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/value","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","score":0.49280503392219543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.46163249015808105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/moving-average","display_name":"Moving average","score":0.44741952419281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.44105765223503113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4221665859222412},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/indonesian-government","display_name":"Indonesian government","score":0.4189894199371338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.3664143979549408},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agricultural-economics","display_name":"Agricultural economics","score":0.32888591289520264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.21103927493095398},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.17329642176628113}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.9016104340553284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779207338","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9240","display_name":"Indonesian","level":2,"score":0.722682774066925},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C521751864","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1729207","display_name":"Christian ministry","level":2,"score":0.6159511208534241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.4962218403816223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.49280503392219543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.46163249015808105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175706884","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130194","display_name":"Moving average","level":2,"score":0.44741952419281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.44105765223503113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4221665859222412},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993675096","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20716634","display_name":"Indonesian government","level":3,"score":0.4189894199371338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.3664143979549408},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48824518","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q396340","display_name":"Agricultural economics","level":1,"score":0.32888591289520264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.21103927493095398},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17329642176628113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27206212","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q34178","display_name":"Theology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","pdf_url":"http://journal2.um.ac.id/index.php/keds/article/download/11100/4974","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210237352","display_name":"Knowledge Engineering and Data Science","issn_l":"2597-4602","issn":["2597-4602","2597-4637"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314921","host_organization_name":"State University of Malang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314921"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["State University of Malang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Knowledge Engineering and Data Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:f7c8388a40d4494990e57b25d53957ff","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/f7c8388a40d4494990e57b25d53957ff","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Knowledge Engineering and Data Science, Vol 2, Iss 2, Pp 90-100 (2019)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17977/um018v2i22019p90-100","pdf_url":"http://journal2.um.ac.id/index.php/keds/article/download/11100/4974","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210237352","display_name":"Knowledge Engineering and Data Science","issn_l":"2597-4602","issn":["2597-4602","2597-4637"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310314921","host_organization_name":"State University of Malang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310314921"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["State University of Malang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Knowledge Engineering and Data Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.49000000953674316,"display_name":"Partnerships for the goals","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/17"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320329008","display_name":"Universitas Negeri Malang","ror":"https://ror.org/00ypgyy34"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2998569780.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2998569780.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":20,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1966266047","https://openalex.org/W1968407436","https://openalex.org/W1984755515","https://openalex.org/W1987464952","https://openalex.org/W2015863683","https://openalex.org/W2044986678","https://openalex.org/W2056929675","https://openalex.org/W2082468961","https://openalex.org/W2093199908","https://openalex.org/W2183936775","https://openalex.org/W2296609147","https://openalex.org/W2338714606","https://openalex.org/W2377246897","https://openalex.org/W2972309228","https://openalex.org/W4241434207","https://openalex.org/W4246711051","https://openalex.org/W6641786650","https://openalex.org/W6664657244","https://openalex.org/W6686358049","https://openalex.org/W6747032676"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3204780408","https://openalex.org/W3125596490","https://openalex.org/W3121186135","https://openalex.org/W3167898685","https://openalex.org/W4292097865","https://openalex.org/W2377573437","https://openalex.org/W4385612224","https://openalex.org/W3190289737","https://openalex.org/W3115491726","https://openalex.org/W4313123484"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,36,143,165],"development":[1],"of":[2,33,44,55,84,95,106,110,145,186,193,220],"Indonesia's":[3],"imports":[4,26,56,85,199,213],"fluctuate":[5],"over":[6],"years.":[7],"Inability":[8],"to":[9,19,30,39,74,122,158,224],"anticipate":[10],"such":[11,210],"rapid":[12],"changes":[13],"can":[14,67,204,238],"cause":[15],"economic":[16,233],"slump":[17],"due":[18],"inappropriate":[20],"policy.":[21,65],"For":[22],"instance,":[23],"recent":[24],"years":[25],"in":[27,46,61,79,86,138,168],"rice":[28,34,45],"led":[29],"the":[31,41,53,59,63,82,87,103,107,124,131,146,153,169,202,218,221,232],"extermination":[32],"reserves.":[35],"reason":[37],"is":[38,120,128,152,173],"maintain":[40,229],"market":[42],"price":[43],"Indonesia.":[47,225],"To":[48],"overcome":[49],"these":[50],"changes,":[51],"forecasting":[52,139,159,181],"amount":[54,83,219],"should":[57],"assist":[58],"Government":[60],"determining":[62],"optimum":[64],"This":[66,97,126],"be":[68],"done":[69],"by":[70,160],"utilizing":[71],"an":[72,190],"algorithm":[73],"forecast":[75,123,151,200],"time":[76],"series":[77],"data,":[78],"this":[80,198],"case":[81],"next":[88],"few":[89],"months":[90],"with":[91,182],"a":[92,183,206],"high":[93],"degree":[94],"accuracy.":[96],"study":[98],"uses":[99],"data":[100,141],"obtained":[101],"from":[102],"official":[104],"website":[105],"Indonesian":[108],"Ministry":[109],"Trade.":[111],"Then,":[112],"Seasonal":[113],"Autoregressive":[114],"Integrated":[115],"Moving":[116],"Average":[117],"(SARIMA)":[118],"method":[119,127],"applied":[121],"imports.":[125],"suitable":[129],"for":[130],"interconnected":[132],"dependent":[133],"variables,":[134],"as":[135,137,211],"well":[136],"seasonal":[140],"patterns.":[142],"results":[144,156],"experiment":[147],"showed":[148],"that":[149,172],"6-period":[150],"most":[154],"accurate":[155],"compared":[157],"16":[161],"and":[162,215],"24":[163],"periods.":[164],"research":[166],"resulted":[167],"best":[170],"model,":[171,201],"ARIMA":[174],"(0,":[175],"1,":[176,178],"3)(0,":[177],"1)12":[179],"produces":[180],"MAPE":[184],"value":[185],"7.210":[187],"%":[188],"or":[189,230],"accuracy":[191],"rate":[192],"92.790":[194],"%.":[195],"By":[196],"applying":[197],"government":[203],"have":[205],"forward":[207],"strategic":[208],"plans":[209],"selectively":[212],"products":[214,223],"carefully":[216],"decide":[217],"incoming":[222],"Hence,":[226],"it":[227],"could":[228],"improve":[231],"condition":[234],"where":[235],"local":[236],"businesses":[237],"grow":[239],"confidently.":[240]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
