{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7137832852","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","title":"Estimating Online Influence Needs Causal Modeling! Counterfactual Analysis of Misinformation Engagement on Social Media","display_name":"Estimating Online Influence Needs Causal Modeling! Counterfactual Analysis of Misinformation Engagement on Social Media","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-14","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7137832852","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210191458","display_name":"Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence","issn_l":"2159-5399","issn":["2159-5399","2374-3468"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320058","host_organization_name":"Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320058"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence"],"type":"conference"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5129675795","display_name":"LIN TIAN","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lin Tian","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5129746240","display_name":"Marian-Andrei Rizoiu","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marian-Andrei Rizoiu","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"40","issue":"2","first_page":"1078","last_page":"1086"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11147","display_name":"Misinformation and Its Impacts","score":0.7914999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11147","display_name":"Misinformation and Its Impacts","score":0.7914999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10557","display_name":"Social Media and Politics","score":0.052000001072883606,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3315","display_name":"Communication"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10609","display_name":"Digital Marketing and Social Media","score":0.021400000900030136,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/misinformation","display_name":"Misinformation","score":0.9337999820709229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-thinking","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","score":0.8105000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-media","display_name":"Social media","score":0.7203999757766724},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disinformation","display_name":"Disinformation","score":0.61080002784729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-conditional","display_name":"Counterfactual conditional","score":0.41679999232292175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scale","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","score":0.36419999599456787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/false-accusation","display_name":"False accusation","score":0.34049999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/control","display_name":"Control (management)","score":0.32420000433921814}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776990098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13579947","display_name":"Misinformation","level":2,"score":0.9337999820709229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.8105000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518677369","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q202833","display_name":"Social media","level":2,"score":0.7203999757766724},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776552730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189656","display_name":"Disinformation","level":3,"score":0.61080002784729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.44440001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71889745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783264","display_name":"Counterfactual conditional","level":3,"score":0.41679999232292175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.40860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.36419999599456787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59577422","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10265143","display_name":"False accusation","level":2,"score":0.34049999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775924081","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55608371","display_name":"Control (management)","level":2,"score":0.32420000433921814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780791683","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q846785","display_name":"Action (physics)","level":2,"score":0.3183000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.31690001487731934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.3084999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780009758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804172","display_name":"Measure (data warehouse)","level":2,"score":0.29600000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116834253","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2039217","display_name":"Identification (biology)","level":2,"score":0.29159998893737793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166052673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83021","display_name":"Empirical evidence","level":2,"score":0.2897000014781952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192209626","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190909","display_name":"Focus (optics)","level":2,"score":0.275299996137619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778729106","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140126","display_name":"Social media analytics","level":3,"score":0.274399995803833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.2734000086784363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.2718000113964081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.2671999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108827166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q175975","display_name":"Internet privacy","level":1,"score":0.26460000872612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C131158328","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1307337","display_name":"Social influence","level":2,"score":0.26179999113082886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120936955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2155640","display_name":"Empirical research","level":2,"score":0.2605000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C67469775","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q304922","display_name":"Social dynamics","level":2,"score":0.25209999084472656}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210191458","display_name":"Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence","issn_l":"2159-5399","issn":["2159-5399","2374-3468"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320058","host_organization_name":"Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320058"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence"],"type":"conference"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:ojs.aaai.org:article/37078","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/37078","pdf_url":"https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/download/37078/41040","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"2159-5399","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v40i2.37078","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210191458","display_name":"Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence","issn_l":"2159-5399","issn":["2159-5399","2374-3468"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320058","host_organization_name":"Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320058"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence"],"type":"conference"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/10","display_name":"Reduced inequalities","score":0.4667031466960907}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320409","display_name":"Australian Academy of Science","ror":"https://ror.org/0186yvf62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335334","display_name":"Defence Science and Technology Group","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Understanding":[0,47],"true":[1],"influence":[2,122],"in":[3,48,87],"social":[4,108],"media":[5,109],"requires":[6],"distinguishing":[7],"correlation":[8],"from":[9],"causation\u2014particularly":[10],"when":[11],"analyzing":[12],"misinformation":[13,71,77,140],"spread.":[14],"While":[15],"existing":[16,58,83],"approaches":[17],"focus":[18],"on":[19,75,106],"exposure":[20,95],"metrics":[21],"and":[22,78,100,150],"network":[23],"structures,":[24],"they":[25],"often":[26],"fail":[27],"to":[28,61],"capture":[29],"the":[30],"causal":[31,114],"mechanisms":[32],"by":[33,85],"which":[34],"external":[35,64,145],"temporal":[36,97],"signals":[37],"trigger":[38],"engagement.":[39,72],"We":[40],"introduce":[41],"CITRUS":[42,81,125,135],"(Causal":[43],"Influence":[44],"through":[45],"Treatment-Response":[46],"Social":[49],"media),":[50],"a":[51,127],"novel":[52],"joint":[53],"treatment-outcome":[54],"framework":[55,129],"that":[56,112,138,157],"leverages":[57],"sequential":[59],"models":[60],"understand":[62],"how":[63],"signals\u2014search":[65],"trends,":[66],"news":[67],"coverage,":[68],"influencer":[69],"activity\u2014trigger":[70],"Through":[73],"experiments":[74],"real-world":[76],"disinformation":[79],"datasets,":[80],"outperforms":[82],"benchmarks":[84],"15-22%":[86],"predicting":[88],"engagement":[89,159],"across":[90],"diverse":[91],"counterfactual":[92],"scenarios,":[93],"including":[94],"adjustment,":[96],"alignment":[98],"shifts,":[99],"varied":[101],"intervention":[102],"durations.":[103],"Case":[104],"studies":[105],"492":[107],"users":[110],"demonstrate":[111],"our":[113],"effect":[115],"measure":[116],"aligns":[117],"strongly":[118],"with":[119,154,164],"expert-based":[120],"empirical":[121],"assessments,":[123],"validating":[124],"as":[126],"robust":[128],"for":[130],"understanding":[131],"information":[132],"spread":[133],"dynamics.":[134],"also":[136],"reveals":[137],"low-baseline":[139],"can":[141],"scale":[142],"6-fold":[143],"under":[144],"promotion,":[146],"showing":[147],"super-linear":[148],"growth,":[149],"unmasks":[151],"hidden":[152],"amplifiers\u2014accounts":[153],"modest":[155],"followings":[156],"double":[158],"rates,":[160],"outperforming":[161],"supposed":[162],"\"influencers\"":[163],"100x":[165],"more":[166],"followers.":[167]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-14T23:27:15.235271","created_date":"2026-03-18T00:00:00"}
