{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2782785877","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","title":"A Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Model for American College Football","display_name":"A Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Model for American College Football","publication_year":2017,"publication_date":"2017-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2782785877","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","mag":"2782785877"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","pdf_url":"https://content.sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/ijcss/16/3/article-p185.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210193852","display_name":"International Journal of Computer Science in Sport","issn_l":"1684-4769","issn":["1684-4769"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320322","host_organization_name":"De Gruyter Open","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320322","https://openalex.org/P4310313990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["De Gruyter Open","De Gruyter"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computer Science in Sport","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://content.sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/ijcss/16/3/article-p185.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5097676781","display_name":"J. Kolbush","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130701444","display_name":"Georgia Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01zkghx44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"J. Kolbush","raw_affiliation_strings":["H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062554863","display_name":"Joel Sokol","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8228-8359"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130701444","display_name":"Georgia Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01zkghx44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J. Sokol","raw_affiliation_strings":["H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5097676781"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"],"apc_list":{"value":210,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":226},"apc_paid":{"value":210,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":226},"fwci":7.9703,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":11,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97168627,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"16","issue":"3","first_page":"185","last_page":"196"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9987000226974487,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9987000226974487,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10260","display_name":"Software Engineering Research","score":0.9710000157356262,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12423","display_name":"Software Reliability and Analysis Research","score":0.9054999947547913,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1712","display_name":"Software"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/football","display_name":"Football","score":0.7426443099975586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/basketball","display_name":"Basketball","score":0.7163408994674683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ranking","display_name":"Ranking (information retrieval)","score":0.7159134149551392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-regression","display_name":"Logistic regression","score":0.7121579051017761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tournament","display_name":"Tournament","score":0.6955737471580505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-chain","display_name":"Markov chain","score":0.536358654499054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/margin","display_name":"Margin (machine learning)","score":0.445118248462677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.4355927109718323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.37385037541389465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.3636435866355896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3220694065093994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.2522197961807251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.2277979850769043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.17863202095031738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.12829574942588806},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.1189737319946289},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.0874210000038147}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778444522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1081491","display_name":"Football","level":2,"score":0.7426443099975586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103189561","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5372","display_name":"Basketball","level":2,"score":0.7163408994674683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189430467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7293293","display_name":"Ranking (information retrieval)","level":2,"score":0.7159134149551392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.7121579051017761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136975688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1320634","display_name":"Tournament","level":2,"score":0.6955737471580505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98763669","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov chain","level":2,"score":0.536358654499054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C774472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6760393","display_name":"Margin (machine learning)","level":2,"score":0.445118248462677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4355927109718323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.37385037541389465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3636435866355896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3220694065093994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2522197961807251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2277979850769043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.17863202095031738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.12829574942588806},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.1189737319946289},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.0874210000038147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114614502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q76592","display_name":"Combinatorics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","pdf_url":"https://content.sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/ijcss/16/3/article-p185.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210193852","display_name":"International Journal of Computer Science in Sport","issn_l":"1684-4769","issn":["1684-4769"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320322","host_organization_name":"De Gruyter Open","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320322","https://openalex.org/P4310313990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["De Gruyter Open","De Gruyter"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computer Science in Sport","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:072a128c3f274e3eb3d97e4356b01ecf","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/072a128c3f274e3eb3d97e4356b01ecf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computer Science in Sport, Vol 16, Iss 3, Pp 185-196 (2017)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ijcss-2017-0014","pdf_url":"https://content.sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/ijcss/16/3/article-p185.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210193852","display_name":"International Journal of Computer Science in Sport","issn_l":"1684-4769","issn":["1684-4769"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320322","host_organization_name":"De Gruyter Open","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320322","https://openalex.org/P4310313990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["De Gruyter Open","De Gruyter"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Computer Science in Sport","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2782785877.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2782785877.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":5,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2000708151","https://openalex.org/W2008779875","https://openalex.org/W2059420114","https://openalex.org/W2082723369","https://openalex.org/W2531688208"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3123786980","https://openalex.org/W4287997709","https://openalex.org/W2994965880","https://openalex.org/W2357757633","https://openalex.org/W2951933385","https://openalex.org/W190274399","https://openalex.org/W3121108812","https://openalex.org/W3139434641","https://openalex.org/W3151498429","https://openalex.org/W2161148151"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Kvam":[1],"and":[2,94],"Sokol":[3],"developed":[4],"a":[5,83,91,97],"successful":[6,43],"logistic":[7],"regression/Markov":[8],"chain":[9],"(LRMC)":[10],"model":[11,37],"for":[12],"ranking":[13,44,137],"college":[14,64],"basketball":[15],"teams":[16,111],"part":[17],"of":[18,21,40,50,67,70,107,109,134],"Division":[19,53],"I":[20,54],"the":[22,35,41,48,51,68,105,122,132,135],"National":[23],"Colligate":[24],"Athletic":[25],"Association":[26],"(NCAA).":[27],"In":[28],"their":[29,113],"2006":[30],"publication,":[31],"they":[32],"illustrated":[33],"that":[34,73,86,128],"LRMC":[36,74,99],"is":[38,130],"one":[39],"most":[42],"systems":[45,138],"in":[46,76,116],"predicting":[47],"outcome":[49],"NCAA":[52],"Basketball":[55],"Tournament.":[56],"However,":[57],"it":[58],"cannot":[59],"directly":[60],"be":[61],"extended":[62],"to":[63,89,112],"football":[65,98],"because":[66],"lack":[69],"home-and-home":[71],"matchups":[72],"exploits":[75],"performing":[77],"its":[78],"Logistic":[79,92],"Regression.":[80],"We":[81],"present":[82],"common-opponents-based":[84],"approach":[85,103],"allows":[87],"us":[88],"perform":[90],"Regression":[93],"thus":[95],"create":[96],"(F-LRMC)":[100],"model.":[101],"This":[102],"compares":[104],"margin":[106],"victory":[108],"home":[110],"winning":[114],"percentage":[115],"games":[117],"played":[118],"against":[119],"common-opponents":[120],"with":[121],"away":[123],"team.":[124],"Computational":[125],"results":[126],"show":[127],"F-LRMC":[129],"among":[131],"best":[133],"many":[136],"tracked":[139],"by":[140],"Massey's":[141],"College":[142],"Football":[143],"Ranking":[144],"Composite.":[145]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}