{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4226081337","doi":"https://doi.org/10.14778/3503585.3503593","title":"Popularity prediction for social media over arbitrary time horizons","display_name":"Popularity prediction for social media over arbitrary time horizons","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4226081337","doi":"https://doi.org/10.14778/3503585.3503593"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.14778/3503585.3503593","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.14778/3503585.3503593","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210226185","display_name":"Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment","issn_l":"2150-8097","issn":["2150-8097"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319798","host_organization_name":"Association for Computing Machinery","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319798"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for Computing Machinery"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.02092","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046710059","display_name":"Daniel Haimovich","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210114444","display_name":"Meta (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/01zbnvs85","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Haimovich","raw_affiliation_strings":["Core Data Science, Meta Platforms"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Core Data Science, Meta Platforms","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028077455","display_name":"Dima Karamshuk","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210114444","display_name":"Meta (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/01zbnvs85","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dima Karamshuk","raw_affiliation_strings":["Core Data Science, Meta Platforms"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Core Data Science, Meta Platforms","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087853861","display_name":"Thomas J. Leeper","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4097-6326"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210114444","display_name":"Meta (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/01zbnvs85","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Thomas J. Leeper","raw_affiliation_strings":["Core Data Science, Meta Platforms"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Core Data Science, Meta Platforms","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057760022","display_name":"Evgeniy Riabenko","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210114444","display_name":"Meta (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/01zbnvs85","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Evgeniy Riabenko","raw_affiliation_strings":["Core Data Science, Meta Platforms"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Core Data Science, Meta Platforms","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079870557","display_name":"Milan Vojnovi\u0107","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1382-022X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210161993","display_name":"Laser Scan Engineering (United Kingdom)","ror":"https://ror.org/05rg8s453","country_code":"GB","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210161993"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27589593","display_name":"Lahore School of Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/0175kt397","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27589593"]}],"countries":["GB","PK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Milan Vojnovic","raw_affiliation_strings":["LSE","Department of Statistics, LSE"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"LSE","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210161993"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, LSE","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27589593"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5046710059"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210114444"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.1494,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.55211152,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"15","issue":"4","first_page":"841","last_page":"849"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.992900013923645,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.992900013923645,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10064","display_name":"Complex Network Analysis Techniques","score":0.9656000137329102,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11901","display_name":"Bayesian Methods and Mixture Models","score":0.9473000168800354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/popularity","display_name":"Popularity","score":0.9388485550880432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.743963360786438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scalability","display_name":"Scalability","score":0.5720890164375305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/content","display_name":"Content (measure theory)","score":0.5162246227264404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ranking","display_name":"Ranking (information retrieval)","score":0.513286292552948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-modelling","display_name":"Predictive modelling","score":0.49790453910827637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/point","display_name":"Point (geometry)","score":0.47406595945358276},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.45566079020500183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baseline","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","score":0.4475220739841461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.4455448389053345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/feature","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","score":0.42648136615753174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.3310829997062683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.1317579746246338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/database","display_name":"Database","score":0.08530983328819275}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.9388485550880432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.743963360786438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48044578","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q727490","display_name":"Scalability","level":2,"score":0.5720890164375305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778152352","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165061","display_name":"Content (measure theory)","level":2,"score":0.5162246227264404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189430467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7293293","display_name":"Ranking (information retrieval)","level":2,"score":0.513286292552948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.49790453910827637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.47406595945358276},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.45566079020500183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.4475220739841461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4455448389053345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776401178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12050496","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.42648136615753174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3310829997062683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.1317579746246338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77088390","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8513","display_name":"Database","level":1,"score":0.08530983328819275},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.14778/3503585.3503593","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.14778/3503585.3503593","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210226185","display_name":"Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment","issn_l":"2150-8097","issn":["2150-8097"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319798","host_organization_name":"Association for Computing Machinery","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319798"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for Computing Machinery"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:researchonline.lse.ac.uk:115272","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1382-022X>","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401593","display_name":"London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I909854389","host_organization_name":"London School of Economics and Political Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I909854389"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"PeerReviewed"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2009.02092","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.02092","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.02092","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2009.02092","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.02092","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.02092","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.4699999988079071,"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":62,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W863049760","https://openalex.org/W1578006941","https://openalex.org/W1742402942","https://openalex.org/W1970777322","https://openalex.org/W1992537918","https://openalex.org/W2004110412","https://openalex.org/W2015186536","https://openalex.org/W2021314079","https://openalex.org/W2027135291","https://openalex.org/W2070493638","https://openalex.org/W2080290417","https://openalex.org/W2096845327","https://openalex.org/W2097754156","https://openalex.org/W2101645017","https://openalex.org/W2102177432","https://openalex.org/W2107260313","https://openalex.org/W2112056172","https://openalex.org/W2113889316","https://openalex.org/W2114544578","https://openalex.org/W2127267264","https://openalex.org/W2127434196","https://openalex.org/W2141250202","https://openalex.org/W2144305663","https://openalex.org/W2166771689","https://openalex.org/W2171410332","https://openalex.org/W2184179640","https://openalex.org/W2214702106","https://openalex.org/W2323881768","https://openalex.org/W2330168953","https://openalex.org/W2509830164","https://openalex.org/W2510535358","https://openalex.org/W2551441958","https://openalex.org/W2569260160","https://openalex.org/W2605163477","https://openalex.org/W2739620949","https://openalex.org/W2767220239","https://openalex.org/W2795931350","https://openalex.org/W2798526869","https://openalex.org/W2903664715","https://openalex.org/W2912066479","https://openalex.org/W2946154398","https://openalex.org/W2949377321","https://openalex.org/W2951274548","https://openalex.org/W2951617294","https://openalex.org/W2951851909","https://openalex.org/W2952395191","https://openalex.org/W2964052964","https://openalex.org/W2964269387","https://openalex.org/W2997431870","https://openalex.org/W3001111845","https://openalex.org/W3028571922","https://openalex.org/W3028825970","https://openalex.org/W3083587685","https://openalex.org/W3101614988","https://openalex.org/W3104250540","https://openalex.org/W3104987177","https://openalex.org/W3122471732","https://openalex.org/W3125272213","https://openalex.org/W3125952634","https://openalex.org/W3134021275","https://openalex.org/W4298854966","https://openalex.org/W6778187300"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2368605798","https://openalex.org/W2518037665","https://openalex.org/W2348524959","https://openalex.org/W2477036161","https://openalex.org/W2368049389","https://openalex.org/W2384861574","https://openalex.org/W4294565801","https://openalex.org/W2170801710","https://openalex.org/W2952704802","https://openalex.org/W2994850404"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Predicting":[0],"the":[1,59,82,135,157],"popularity":[2,64,112,137,160,170],"of":[3,27,61,134,150,159,183,193,205,210,212,229],"social":[4],"media":[5],"content":[6,30,34,49,73,105,196,206,214],"in":[7,144,164],"real":[8],"time":[9,70,79,93,175,236],"requires":[10],"approaches":[11],"that":[12,155,177,227],"efficiently":[13],"operate":[14],"at":[15,66,138],"global":[16],"scale.":[17],"Popularity":[18],"prediction":[19,37,69,92,116,133,171,174,221,235],"is":[20,39,96],"important":[21],"for":[22,77,90,98,169,233],"many":[23],"applications,":[24],"including":[25],"detection":[26],"harmful":[28],"viral":[29],"to":[31,86,100,115,186],"enable":[32],"timely":[33],"moderation.":[35],"The":[36,216],"task":[38],"difficult":[40],"because":[41],"views":[42,207],"result":[43],"from":[44],"interactions":[45],"between":[46],"user":[47],"interests,":[48],"features,":[50],"resharing,":[51],"feed":[52],"ranking,":[53],"and":[54,76,106,208],"network":[55],"structure.":[56],"We":[57,118],"consider":[58],"problem":[60],"accurately":[62],"predicting":[63],"both":[65],"any":[67],"given":[68],"since":[71],"a":[72,120,125,147,165,180,191,200,224],"item's":[74],"creation":[75],"arbitrary":[78,173],"horizons":[80,143,176],"into":[81],"future.":[83],"In":[84],"order":[85],"achieve":[87],"high":[88,181],"accuracy":[89,222],"different":[91],"horizons,":[94],"it":[95],"essential":[97],"models":[99,232],"use":[101],"static":[102],"features":[103],"(of":[104],"user)":[107],"as":[108,110],"well":[109],"observed":[111],"growth":[113,153],"up":[114],"time.":[117],"propose":[119],"feature-based":[121],"approach":[122],"based":[123],"on":[124,190,197],"self-excited":[126],"Hawkes":[127],"point":[128,148],"process":[129],"model,":[130],"which":[131],"involves":[132],"content's":[136],"one":[139],"or":[140],"more":[141],"reference":[142],"tandem":[145],"with":[146],"predictor":[149],"an":[151],"effective":[152],"parameter":[154],"reflects":[156],"timescale":[158],"growth.":[161],"This":[162],"results":[163],"highly":[166],"scalable":[167],"method":[168],"over":[172,199],"also":[178],"achieves":[179],"degree":[182],"accuracy,":[184],"compared":[185],"several":[187],"leading":[188],"baselines,":[189],"dataset":[192],"public":[194],"page":[195],"Facebook":[198],"two-month":[201],"period,":[202],"covering":[203],"billions":[204],"hundreds":[209],"thousands":[211],"distinct":[213],"items.":[215],"model":[217],"has":[218],"shown":[219],"competitive":[220],"against":[223],"strong":[225],"baseline":[226],"consists":[228],"separately":[230],"trained":[231],"specific":[234],"horizons.":[237]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
