{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4220706185","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","title":"Performance of early warning signals for disease re-emergence: A case study on COVID-19 data","display_name":"Performance of early warning signals for disease re-emergence: A case study on COVID-19 data","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-03-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4220706185","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35353809"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037164344","display_name":"Daniele Proverbio","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-479X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186903577","display_name":"University of Luxembourg","ror":"https://ror.org/036x5ad56","country_code":"LU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I23923803","display_name":"University of Exeter","ror":"https://ror.org/03yghzc09","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]}],"countries":["GB","LU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Daniele Proverbio","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom","Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-479X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091254699","display_name":"Fran\u00e7oise Kemp","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186903577","display_name":"University of Luxembourg","ror":"https://ror.org/036x5ad56","country_code":"LU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]}],"countries":["LU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fran\u00e7oise Kemp","raw_affiliation_strings":["Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5845-293X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5089094325","display_name":"Stefano Magni","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8649-3616"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186903577","display_name":"University of Luxembourg","ror":"https://ror.org/036x5ad56","country_code":"LU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]}],"countries":["LU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stefano Magni","raw_affiliation_strings":["Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8649-3616","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035877557","display_name":"Jorge Gon\u00e7alves","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5228-6165"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186903577","display_name":"University of Luxembourg","ror":"https://ror.org/036x5ad56","country_code":"LU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I241749","display_name":"University of Cambridge","ror":"https://ror.org/013meh722","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I241749"]}],"countries":["GB","LU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jorge Gon\u00e7alves","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom","Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5228-6165","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I241749"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, University of Luxembourg, Belvaux, Luxembourg","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5037164344"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186903577","https://openalex.org/I23923803"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":3.7396,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":36,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93869101,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"18","issue":"3","first_page":"e1009958","last_page":"e1009958"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.9911999702453613,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9901000261306763,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/warning-system","display_name":"Warning system","score":0.6661829948425293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/noise","display_name":"Noise (video)","score":0.5772978067398071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5771358013153076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variance","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","score":0.5188428163528442},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.46778571605682373},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/set","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","score":0.4488086700439453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4448167681694031},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.4435498118400574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autocorrelation","display_name":"Autocorrelation","score":0.44351568818092346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.3852940499782562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","score":0.37608861923217773},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.3372964859008789},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.27565956115722656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.2091447114944458},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.20350992679595947},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.12571769952774048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.10631135106086731},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pathology","display_name":"Pathology","score":0.086771160364151}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.6661829948425293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99498987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2210247","display_name":"Noise (video)","level":3,"score":0.5772978067398071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5771358013153076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.5188428163528442},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.46778571605682373},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.4488086700439453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4448167681694031},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4435498118400574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C5297727","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q786970","display_name":"Autocorrelation","level":2,"score":0.44351568818092346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.3852940499782562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.37608861923217773},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3372964859008789},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.27565956115722656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2091447114944458},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.20350992679595947},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.12571769952774048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.10631135106086731},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.086771160364151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115961682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860623","display_name":"Image (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000175","qualifier_name":"diagnosis","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058872","descriptor_name":"Epidemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058872","descriptor_name":"Epidemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058872","descriptor_name":"Epidemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:35353809","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35353809","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1009958","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:36c31301bedc4df595688f43d259b642","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/36c31301bedc4df595688f43d259b642","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 18, Iss 3, p e1009958 (2022)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:orbilu.uni.lu:10993/50892","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://orbilu.uni.lu/handle/10993/50892","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401815","display_name":"Open Repository and Bibliography (University of Luxembourg)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I186903577","host_organization_name":"University of Luxembourg","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186903577"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, 18 (3), e1009958 (2022)","raw_type":"peer reviewed"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9000113","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9000113","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009958","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.7300000190734863,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3116806350","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PRIDE17/12244779/PARK-QC","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321038","funder_display_name":"Fonds National de la Recherche Luxembourg"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8373894933","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PRIDE DTU CriTiCS, ref 10907093","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321038","funder_display_name":"Fonds National de la Recherche Luxembourg"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321038","display_name":"Fonds National de la Recherche Luxembourg","ror":"https://ror.org/039z13y21"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":66,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W627107180","https://openalex.org/W1545410837","https://openalex.org/W1722683538","https://openalex.org/W1966512215","https://openalex.org/W2012469177","https://openalex.org/W2017731476","https://openalex.org/W2054379763","https://openalex.org/W2100106837","https://openalex.org/W2116199452","https://openalex.org/W2134205611","https://openalex.org/W2134761831","https://openalex.org/W2153268540","https://openalex.org/W2155653089","https://openalex.org/W2158678754","https://openalex.org/W2158698691","https://openalex.org/W2160885387","https://openalex.org/W2162233069","https://openalex.org/W2168487879","https://openalex.org/W2168773352","https://openalex.org/W2169715400","https://openalex.org/W2170330538","https://openalex.org/W2171351474","https://openalex.org/W2348336253","https://openalex.org/W2725900963","https://openalex.org/W2753470284","https://openalex.org/W2801493987","https://openalex.org/W2803383072","https://openalex.org/W2806697564","https://openalex.org/W2888251577","https://openalex.org/W2903293690","https://openalex.org/W2936927658","https://openalex.org/W3003573988","https://openalex.org/W3007602081","https://openalex.org/W3008443627","https://openalex.org/W3009751878","https://openalex.org/W3009983851","https://openalex.org/W3010674559","https://openalex.org/W3011882609","https://openalex.org/W3014001472","https://openalex.org/W3014442018","https://openalex.org/W3015056889","https://openalex.org/W3018782651","https://openalex.org/W3022576629","https://openalex.org/W3023729043","https://openalex.org/W3024034875","https://openalex.org/W3027104006","https://openalex.org/W3033094519","https://openalex.org/W3038804008","https://openalex.org/W3088138099","https://openalex.org/W3088170253","https://openalex.org/W3099545566","https://openalex.org/W3100575704","https://openalex.org/W3103645382","https://openalex.org/W3134841099","https://openalex.org/W3137139376","https://openalex.org/W3139832680","https://openalex.org/W3163461246","https://openalex.org/W3176429099","https://openalex.org/W3195588037","https://openalex.org/W3202538527","https://openalex.org/W4210911151","https://openalex.org/W4226318388","https://openalex.org/W4233751321","https://openalex.org/W4239181501","https://openalex.org/W4250883246","https://openalex.org/W6776917422"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W747394405","https://openalex.org/W1987236514","https://openalex.org/W174653542","https://openalex.org/W2381153750","https://openalex.org/W2088220880","https://openalex.org/W2041235277","https://openalex.org/W3121354342","https://openalex.org/W2060952610","https://openalex.org/W2391377755","https://openalex.org/W2128717546"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Developing":[0],"measures":[1],"for":[2,180,220],"rapid":[3],"and":[4,42,69,112,149,207],"early":[5,26,168],"detection":[6],"of":[7,17,46,71,105,118,183,195,217],"disease":[8,135],"re-emergence":[9],"is":[10,50,190],"important":[11],"to":[12,37,61,73,192],"perform":[13],"science-based":[14],"risk":[15],"assessment":[16],"epidemic":[18,184],"threats.":[19],"In":[20,94,152],"the":[21,44,103,116,147,166,196,215],"past":[22],"few":[23],"years,":[24],"several":[25],"warning":[27,169],"signals":[28],"(EWS)":[29],"from":[30],"complex":[31],"systems":[32],"theory":[33],"have":[34],"been":[35,85],"introduced":[36],"detect":[38],"impending":[39],"critical":[40,74],"transitions":[41,148],"extend":[43],"set":[45],"indicators.":[47],"However,":[48],"it":[49],"still":[51],"debated":[52],"whether":[53],"they":[54],"are":[55,141],"generically":[56],"applicable":[57],"or":[58,160],"potentially":[59],"sensitive":[60,191],"some":[62,138],"dynamical":[63],"characteristics":[64],"such":[65,108],"as":[66,109],"system":[67],"noise":[68,158],"rates":[70],"approach":[72],"parameter":[75],"values.":[76],"Moreover,":[77],"testing":[78],"on":[79],"empirical":[80,208],"data":[81],"has,":[82],"so":[83],"far,":[84],"limited.":[86],"Hence,":[87],"verifying":[88],"EWS":[89,129,176,218],"performance":[90,104,189],"remains":[91],"a":[92,143,203,211],"challenge.":[93],"this":[95,99],"study,":[96],"we":[97,155],"tackle":[98],"question":[100],"by":[101],"analyzing":[102],"common":[106],"EWS,":[107],"increasing":[110],"variance":[111],"autocorrelation,":[113],"in":[114,121,133],"detecting":[115,134],"emergence":[117,136],"COVID-19":[119],"outbreaks":[120],"various":[122],"countries.":[123],"Our":[124,199],"work":[125],"illustrates":[126],"that":[127,157,175,187],"these":[128],"might":[130],"be":[131,178],"successful":[132],"when":[137],"basic":[139],"assumptions":[140],"satisfied:":[142],"slow":[144],"forcing":[145],"through":[146],"not-fat-tailed":[150],"noise.":[151],"uncertain":[153],"cases,":[154],"observe":[156],"properties":[159],"commensurable":[161],"time":[162],"scales":[163],"may":[164],"obscure":[165],"expected":[167],"signals.":[170],"Overall,":[171],"our":[172],"results":[173],"suggest":[174],"can":[177],"useful":[179],"active":[181],"monitoring":[182],"dynamics,":[185],"but":[186],"their":[188],"certain":[193],"features":[194],"underlying":[197],"dynamics.":[198],"findings":[200],"thus":[201],"pave":[202],"connection":[204],"between":[205],"theoretical":[206],"studies,":[209],"constituting":[210],"further":[212],"step":[213],"towards":[214],"application":[216],"indicators":[219],"informing":[221],"public":[222],"health":[223],"policies.":[224]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-03-27T05:58:40.876381","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}