{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4405708935","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","title":"Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics","display_name":"Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-12-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4405708935","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39715270"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002628068","display_name":"Oscar Fajardo-Fontiveros","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0705-8972"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Oscar Fajardo-Fontiveros","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0705-8972","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068193714","display_name":"Mattia Mattei","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3442-0885"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mattia Mattei","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026353353","display_name":"Giulio Burgio","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6333-4847"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Giulio Burgio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044570898","display_name":"Clara Granell","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3156-0417"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Clara Granell","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040997517","display_name":"Sergio G\u00f3mez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1820-0062"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sergio G\u00f3mez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1820-0062","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027588100","display_name":"\u00c0lex Arenas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0937-0334"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1325736334","display_name":"Battelle","ror":"https://ror.org/01h5tnr73","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1325736334"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I142606810","display_name":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/05h992307","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1325736334","https://openalex.org/I1330989302","https://openalex.org/I142606810","https://openalex.org/I39565521"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES","US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Alex Arenas","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd, Richland, Washington, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd, Richland, Washington, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1325736334","https://openalex.org/I142606810"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007407500","display_name":"Marta Sales\u2010Pardo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8140-6525"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Marta Sales-Pardo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074855536","display_name":"Roger Guimer\u00e0","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3597-4310"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I11932220","display_name":"Instituci\u00f3 Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avan\u00e7ats","ror":"https://ror.org/0371hy230","country_code":"ES","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I11932220"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210104448","display_name":"Institut Catal\u00e0 de Ci\u00e8ncies del Clima","ror":"https://ror.org/01bpa4157","country_code":"ES","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210104448"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55952717","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Roger Guimer\u00e0","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","ICREA, Barcelona, Catalonia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3597-4310","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55952717"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"ICREA, Barcelona, Catalonia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11932220","https://openalex.org/I4210104448"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5007407500","https://openalex.org/A5027588100","https://openalex.org/A5074855536"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11932220","https://openalex.org/I1325736334","https://openalex.org/I142606810","https://openalex.org/I4210104448","https://openalex.org/I55952717"],"apc_list":{"value":2926,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2926},"apc_paid":{"value":2926,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2926},"fwci":0.5724,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.6442715,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"20","issue":"12","first_page":"e1012687","last_page":"e1012687"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10167","display_name":"Influenza Virus Research Studies","score":0.9846000075340271,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.9836000204086304,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incidence","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","score":0.7415234446525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.5995712280273438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.5934463739395142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.5930526256561279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5393893718719482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.4880598783493042},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.4864075183868408},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.3748483657836914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.364430695772171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.2595057487487793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.22952815890312195},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.19087949395179749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pathology","display_name":"Pathology","score":0.10453015565872192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.1021660566329956}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61511704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1671857","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.7415234446525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5995712280273438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.5934463739395142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5930526256561279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5393893718719482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.4880598783493042},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4864075183868408},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3748483657836914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.364430695772171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.2595057487487793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.22952815890312195},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.19087949395179749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.10453015565872192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.1021660566329956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000069550","descriptor_name":"Machine Learning","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":7,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:39715270","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39715270","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:11706490","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/11706490","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11706490/pdf/pcbi.1012687.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1012687","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:68562ab43d2e441baf48b555c85f4f91","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/68562ab43d2e441baf48b555c85f4f91","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 20, Iss 12, p e1012687 (2024)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:osti.gov:2483624","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2483624","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402487","display_name":"OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I139351228","host_organization_name":"Office of Scientific and Technical Information","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I139351228"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:osti.gov:2497345","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2497345","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402487","display_name":"OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I139351228","host_organization_name":"Office of Scientific and Technical Information","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I139351228"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012687","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7400000095367432,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1167900597","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PID2021-128005NBC21","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322930","funder_display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1175115578","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"AEI//10.13039/501100011033/","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G125460123","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"DE-AC05\u201376RL01830","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306084","funder_display_name":"U.S. Department of Energy"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1627207137","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"101092749","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306250","funder_display_name":"Battelle"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1899721271","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"AC05-76RL01830","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306250","funder_display_name":"Battelle"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1929452620","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CREXDATA project, grant agreement no. 101092749","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338447","funder_display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Non-nuclear direct actions of the Joint Research Centre"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2035687314","display_name":"Critical Action Planning over Extreme-Scale Data","funder_award_id":"101092749","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2039832971","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2023PFR-URV-00633","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324497","funder_display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2064873908","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"10.13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","funder_display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G210041235","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MCIN /AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2262748287","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2506945562","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"76RL01830","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306084","funder_display_name":"U.S. Department of Energy"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2510423872","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"AC05-76RL01830","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306084","funder_display_name":"U.S. Department of Energy"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2601397997","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"10.13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3005324705","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","funder_display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G300979063","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"10.13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G34346518","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501 100 011 033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3480869486","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"13039","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3681454997","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4042783231","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G425668148","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":".13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G434337789","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"HORIZON2020","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G467823389","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"945413","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324497","funder_display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4726210797","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"101092749","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334322","funder_display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5005173022","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2021SGR-633","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","funder_display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5080475149","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"10.13039","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5195188938","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"/AEI/10.13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5321382714","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"76RL01830","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338354","funder_display_name":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G69051668","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MCIN /AEI/10.13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","funder_display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7084143925","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"AEI/10","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7633744207","display_name":"Multilevel analysis of complex networked systems","funder_award_id":"220020325","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306183","funder_display_name":"James S. McDonnell Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7642705769","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2023PFR-URV-00633","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","funder_display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7878273963","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PID2022-142600NB-I00","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322930","funder_display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8007659284","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"945413","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338438","funder_display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8118709007","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334322","funder_display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8837313003","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PID2022-142600NB-I00","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","funder_display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8989372489","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"grant agreement no. 101092749","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338447","funder_display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Non-nuclear direct actions of the Joint Research Centre"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G970472912","display_name":"Mart\u00ed i Franqu\u00e8s Doctoral Programme Plus","funder_award_id":"945413","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306084","display_name":"U.S. Department of Energy","ror":"https://ror.org/01bj3aw27"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306183","display_name":"James S. McDonnell Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/03dy4aq19"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306250","display_name":"Battelle","ror":"https://ror.org/01h5tnr73"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","display_name":"European Commission","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/01bg62x04"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322930","display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci\u00f3n","ror":"https://ror.org/034900433"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324497","display_name":"Universitat Rovira i Virgili","ror":"https://ror.org/00g5sqv46"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334322","display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335598","display_name":"Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338354","display_name":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/05h992307"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338438","display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338447","display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Non-nuclear direct actions of the Joint Research Centre","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":44,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W26772505","https://openalex.org/W2033643506","https://openalex.org/W2040792883","https://openalex.org/W2097446414","https://openalex.org/W2102383033","https://openalex.org/W2148301044","https://openalex.org/W2163930085","https://openalex.org/W2784403987","https://openalex.org/W2811295899","https://openalex.org/W3003690504","https://openalex.org/W3006065484","https://openalex.org/W3009930573","https://openalex.org/W3014866318","https://openalex.org/W3021693646","https://openalex.org/W3022726747","https://openalex.org/W3024108935","https://openalex.org/W3032918711","https://openalex.org/W3036944539","https://openalex.org/W3091046231","https://openalex.org/W3091913409","https://openalex.org/W3093082373","https://openalex.org/W3101670640","https://openalex.org/W3106630282","https://openalex.org/W3111883190","https://openalex.org/W3116362583","https://openalex.org/W3117021508","https://openalex.org/W3117830403","https://openalex.org/W3120867737","https://openalex.org/W3123545922","https://openalex.org/W3129862573","https://openalex.org/W3132732596","https://openalex.org/W3133022860","https://openalex.org/W3153779486","https://openalex.org/W3185702296","https://openalex.org/W3186633320","https://openalex.org/W3197766849","https://openalex.org/W4220666549","https://openalex.org/W4243624795","https://openalex.org/W4297243502","https://openalex.org/W4321748135","https://openalex.org/W4378174047","https://openalex.org/W4380766472","https://openalex.org/W4388473546","https://openalex.org/W6784238413"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3136336094","https://openalex.org/W4200558412","https://openalex.org/W120539917","https://openalex.org/W3165628818","https://openalex.org/W4281740907","https://openalex.org/W4281257067","https://openalex.org/W3131084444","https://openalex.org/W4401713459","https://openalex.org/W3118468330","https://openalex.org/W3117641683"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Accurate":[0],"estimates":[1],"of":[2,5,13,41,56,139],"the":[3,11,23,42,54,65,79,112,152],"incidence":[4,55,96,141,157],"infectious":[6],"diseases":[7],"are":[8,18,32],"key":[9],"for":[10,98,127,146,168],"control":[12],"epidemics.":[14],"However,":[15],"healthcare":[16],"systems":[17],"often":[19],"unable":[20],"to":[21,36,52,76,105,143,154],"test":[22,67],"population":[24],"exhaustively,":[25],"especially":[26],"when":[27],"asymptomatic":[28],"and":[29,38,64,90,117,135],"paucisymptomatic":[30],"cases":[31,63],"widespread;":[33],"this":[34],"leads":[35],"significant":[37],"systematic":[39],"under-reporting":[40],"real":[43],"incidence.":[44,87,109],"Here,":[45],"we":[46,71,121],"propose":[47],"a":[48,57,124,131,165],"machine":[49],"learning":[50],"approach":[51],"estimate":[53],"pandemic":[58],"in":[59,114,158],"real-time,":[60],"using":[61,94,160],"reported":[62],"overall":[66],"rate.":[68],"In":[69],"particular,":[70],"use":[72],"Bayesian":[73],"symbolic":[74],"regression":[75],"automatically":[77],"learn":[78],"closed-form":[80,161],"mathematical":[81,162],"models":[82,93,145],"that":[83,123],"most":[84],"parsimoniously":[85],"describe":[86],"We":[88],"develop":[89],"validate":[91],"our":[92],"COVID-19":[95],"values":[97],"nine":[99],"different":[100],"countries,":[101,120],"confirming":[102],"their":[103],"ability":[104],"accurately":[106,155],"predict":[107],"daily":[108],"Remarkably,":[110],"despite":[111],"differences":[113],"epidemic":[115],"trajectories":[116],"dynamics":[118],"across":[119],"find":[122],"single":[125],"model":[126,156],"all":[128],"countries":[129],"offers":[130],"more":[132,137],"parsimonious":[133],"description":[134],"is":[136],"predictive":[138],"actual":[140],"compared":[142],"separate":[144],"each":[147],"country.":[148],"Our":[149],"results":[150],"show":[151],"potential":[153],"real-time":[159],"models,":[163],"providing":[164],"valuable":[166],"tool":[167],"public":[169],"health":[170],"decision-makers.":[171]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-08-28T12:50:07.497085","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}