{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4385754098","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","title":"Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany","display_name":"Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-08-11","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4385754098","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37566642"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025955938","display_name":"Daniel Wolffram","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0318-3669"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71030271","display_name":"Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01f7bcy98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Wolffram","raw_affiliation_strings":["Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0318-3669","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083613572","display_name":"Sam Abbott","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-8037"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210089966","display_name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","ror":"https://ror.org/00a0jsq62","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sam Abbott","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001172598","display_name":"Matthias an der Heiden","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5863-4549"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24359323","display_name":"Robert Koch Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/01k5qnb77","country_code":"DE","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24359323"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Matthias an der Heiden","raw_affiliation_strings":["Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24359323"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058699536","display_name":"Sebastian Funk","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2842-3406"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210089966","display_name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","ror":"https://ror.org/00a0jsq62","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sebastian Funk","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2842-3406","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108249419","display_name":"Felix G\u00fcnther","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161593684","display_name":"Stockholm University","ror":"https://ror.org/05f0yaq80","country_code":"SE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161593684"]}],"countries":["SE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Felix G\u00fcnther","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161593684"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056860292","display_name":"Davide Hailer","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Davide Hailer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085431857","display_name":"Stefan Heyder","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3371-4072"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I119449181","display_name":"Technische Universit\u00e4t Ilmenau","ror":"https://ror.org/01weqhp73","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I119449181"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Stefan Heyder","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universit\u00e4t Ilmenau, Ilmenau, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universit\u00e4t Ilmenau, Ilmenau, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I119449181"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006607273","display_name":"Thomas Hotz","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I119449181","display_name":"Technische Universit\u00e4t Ilmenau","ror":"https://ror.org/01weqhp73","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I119449181"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Thomas Hotz","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universit\u00e4t Ilmenau, Ilmenau, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universit\u00e4t Ilmenau, Ilmenau, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I119449181"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069838478","display_name":"Jan van de Kassteele","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5926-6709"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210104433","display_name":"National Institute for Public Health and the Environment","ror":"https://ror.org/01cesdt21","country_code":"NL","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210104433"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jan van de Kassteele","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210104433"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5008211267","display_name":"Helmut K\u00fcchenhoff","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6372-2487"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4403386549","display_name":"Munich Center for Machine Learning","ror":"https://ror.org/02nfy3535","country_code":null,"type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4403386549","https://openalex.org/I62916508","https://openalex.org/I8204097"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","display_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","ror":"https://ror.org/05591te55","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Helmut K\u00fcchenhoff","raw_affiliation_strings":["Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany","Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4403386549"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5092796981","display_name":"S\u00f6ren M\u00fcller-Hansen","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"S\u00f6ren M\u00fcller-Hansen","raw_affiliation_strings":["S\u00fcddeutsche Zeitung, Munich, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"S\u00fcddeutsche Zeitung, Munich, Germany","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056283595","display_name":"Diell\u00eb Syliqi","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","display_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","ror":"https://ror.org/05591te55","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Diell\u00eb Syliqi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079624888","display_name":"Alexander Ullrich","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4894-6124"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24359323","display_name":"Robert Koch Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/01k5qnb77","country_code":"DE","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24359323"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Alexander Ullrich","raw_affiliation_strings":["Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24359323"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039086570","display_name":"Maximilian Weigert","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4400-134X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4403386549","display_name":"Munich Center for Machine Learning","ror":"https://ror.org/02nfy3535","country_code":null,"type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4403386549","https://openalex.org/I62916508","https://openalex.org/I8204097"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","display_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","ror":"https://ror.org/05591te55","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Maximilian Weigert","raw_affiliation_strings":["Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany","Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4400-134X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4403386549"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001322748","display_name":"Melanie Schienle","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6000-5653"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71030271","display_name":"Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01f7bcy98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Melanie Schienle","raw_affiliation_strings":["Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081121618","display_name":"Johannes Bracher","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3777-1410"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71030271","display_name":"Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01f7bcy98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Johannes Bracher","raw_affiliation_strings":["Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3777-1410","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":4,"institutions_distinct_count":16,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5001172598","https://openalex.org/A5001322748","https://openalex.org/A5006607273","https://openalex.org/A5008211267","https://openalex.org/A5025955938","https://openalex.org/A5039086570","https://openalex.org/A5056283595","https://openalex.org/A5056860292","https://openalex.org/A5058699536","https://openalex.org/A5069838478","https://openalex.org/A5079624888","https://openalex.org/A5081121618","https://openalex.org/A5083613572","https://openalex.org/A5085431857","https://openalex.org/A5092796981","https://openalex.org/A5108249419"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I119449181","https://openalex.org/I161593684","https://openalex.org/I24359323","https://openalex.org/I4210089966","https://openalex.org/I4210104433","https://openalex.org/I4403386549","https://openalex.org/I71030271","https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":3156,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":3403},"fwci":5.8415,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":27,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97040126,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"19","issue":"8","first_page":"e1011394","last_page":"e1011394"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.9988999962806702,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.9988999962806702,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9854999780654907,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10167","display_name":"Influenza Virus Research Studies","score":0.9700000286102295,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nowcasting","display_name":"Nowcasting","score":0.9780101776123047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.6832015514373779},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dashboard","display_name":"Dashboard","score":0.6523115038871765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.6178162097930908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.5699924230575562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.4922560751438141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.4911465346813202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/german","display_name":"German","score":0.4869133234024048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychological-intervention","display_name":"Psychological intervention","score":0.47681042551994324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incidence","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","score":0.4273397922515869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.41375842690467834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/names-of-the-days-of-the-week","display_name":"Names of the days of the week","score":0.41280221939086914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","score":0.4120948016643524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3890615701675415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.384859561920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medical-emergency","display_name":"Medical emergency","score":0.37178704142570496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.3363068103790283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.29730096459388733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.2972627282142639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.26113253831863403},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.13810995221138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/internal-medicine","display_name":"Internal medicine","score":0.1209297776222229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meteorology","display_name":"Meteorology","score":0.11693641543388367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pathology","display_name":"Pathology","score":0.101275235414505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.09080544114112854}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781013037","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1433331","display_name":"Nowcasting","level":2,"score":0.9780101776123047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.6832015514373779},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33499554","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1417134","display_name":"Dashboard","level":2,"score":0.6523115038871765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.6178162097930908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.5699924230575562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.4922560751438141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.4911465346813202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154775046","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188","display_name":"German","level":2,"score":0.4869133234024048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.47681042551994324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61511704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1671857","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.4273397922515869},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.41375842690467834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18246116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42962347","display_name":"Names of the days of the week","level":2,"score":0.41280221939086914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.4120948016643524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3890615701675415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.384859561920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C545542383","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2751242","display_name":"Medical emergency","level":1,"score":0.37178704142570496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3363068103790283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.29730096459388733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.2972627282142639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.26113253831863403},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.13810995221138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.1209297776222229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.11693641543388367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.101275235414505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.09080544114112854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006760","descriptor_name":"Hospitalization","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006760","descriptor_name":"Hospitalization","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006760","descriptor_name":"Hospitalization","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006760","descriptor_name":"Hospitalization","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:37566642","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37566642","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk:4680348","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0318-3669>;","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402527","display_name":"LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210089966","host_organization_name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210089966"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"PeerReviewed"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:10446237","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/10446237","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10446237/pdf/pcbi.1011394.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:0f26ad6c456b4b648aad5cdf9fd23c52","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/0f26ad6c456b4b648aad5cdf9fd23c52","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 19, Iss 8, p e1011394 (2023)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:rivm.openrepository.com:10029/626885","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10029/626885","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401681","display_name":"Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210104433","host_organization_name":"National Institute for Public Health and the Environment","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210104433"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.8399999737739563,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2208160801","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"210758/Z/18/Z","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320311904","funder_display_name":"Wellcome Trust"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3739158938","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"HIDSS4Health","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325698","funder_display_name":"Helmholtz Association"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4612253761","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"512483310","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","funder_display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5320564054","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"105572","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322885","funder_display_name":"NordForsk"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6888588356","display_name":"Real-time modelling for forecasts during infectious disease outbreaks","funder_award_id":"210758","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320311904","funder_display_name":"Wellcome Trust"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320311904","display_name":"Wellcome Trust","ror":"https://ror.org/029chgv08"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320876","display_name":"Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft","ror":"https://ror.org/0281dp749"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","ror":"https://ror.org/018mejw64"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321114","display_name":"Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Bildung und Forschung","ror":"https://ror.org/04pz7b180"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322885","display_name":"NordForsk","ror":"https://ror.org/05bqzfg94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324316","display_name":"Klaus Tschira Stiftung","ror":"https://ror.org/052jep661"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325698","display_name":"Helmholtz Association","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":42,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1546763728","https://openalex.org/W1924589045","https://openalex.org/W1970487353","https://openalex.org/W2025720061","https://openalex.org/W2047445560","https://openalex.org/W2071790139","https://openalex.org/W2096904991","https://openalex.org/W2097536801","https://openalex.org/W2102383033","https://openalex.org/W2146819114","https://openalex.org/W2171585602","https://openalex.org/W2757602662","https://openalex.org/W2909758842","https://openalex.org/W2950881544","https://openalex.org/W2963870508","https://openalex.org/W3014092698","https://openalex.org/W3015830833","https://openalex.org/W3024468332","https://openalex.org/W3031381838","https://openalex.org/W3100067787","https://openalex.org/W3101716397","https://openalex.org/W3104962527","https://openalex.org/W3107976532","https://openalex.org/W3112594766","https://openalex.org/W3118303387","https://openalex.org/W3132458565","https://openalex.org/W3138719020","https://openalex.org/W3180050536","https://openalex.org/W3196188801","https://openalex.org/W3213784469","https://openalex.org/W4206027538","https://openalex.org/W4207057792","https://openalex.org/W4223487063","https://openalex.org/W4226192094","https://openalex.org/W4245501439","https://openalex.org/W4282965214","https://openalex.org/W4297492196","https://openalex.org/W4311827889","https://openalex.org/W4366602904","https://openalex.org/W6685112792","https://openalex.org/W6783656829","https://openalex.org/W6826897132"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2098567841","https://openalex.org/W3124209601","https://openalex.org/W2238969010","https://openalex.org/W2189249776","https://openalex.org/W1526105959","https://openalex.org/W3193710367","https://openalex.org/W3122492506","https://openalex.org/W4388046081","https://openalex.org/W1778290058","https://openalex.org/W3169192659"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Real-time":[0],"surveillance":[1],"is":[2,19],"a":[3,34,72,200,206,209,212,229,253,280,286,312],"crucial":[4],"element":[5],"in":[6,100,106,123,194,199,205,250,310],"the":[7,14,91,101,104,130,178,186,195,222,233,242,274,295,299,307,316,329],"response":[8],"to":[9,51,85,111,120,153,167,227],"infectious":[10],"disease":[11],"outbreaks.":[12],"However,":[13],"interpretation":[15],"of":[16,28,59,76,103,113,132,197,232,244,315,331],"incidence":[17],"data":[18,29],"often":[20,305],"hampered":[21],"by":[22,81,129,144,236,279,323],"delays":[23,145,293],"occurring":[24],"at":[25,185],"various":[26],"stages":[27],"gathering":[30],"and":[31,62,108,146,180,189,203,211,288,334],"reporting.":[32],"As":[33],"result,":[35],"recent":[36,60,301],"values":[37],"are":[38,127,141,304],"biased":[39],"downward,":[40],"which":[41,124,303],"obscures":[42],"current":[43,179],"trends.":[44],"Statistical":[45],"nowcasting":[46,78,332],"techniques":[47],"can":[48,147],"be":[49],"employed":[50],"correct":[52],"these":[53],"biases,":[54],"allowing":[55],"for":[56,177,265],"accurate":[57],"characterization":[58],"developments":[61],"thus":[63],"enhancing":[64],"situational":[65],"awareness.":[66],"In":[67],"this":[68,157],"paper,":[69],"we":[70],"present":[71],"preregistered":[73],"real-time":[74],"assessment":[75],"eight":[77],"approaches,":[79],"applied":[80,162],"independent":[82],"research":[83],"teams":[84,240],"German":[86,138],"7-day":[87],"hospitalization":[88,125,139],"incidences":[89,140,284],"during":[90],"COVID-19":[92],"pandemic.":[93],"This":[94],"indicator":[95],"played":[96],"an":[97],"important":[98],"role":[99],"management":[102],"outbreak":[105],"Germany":[107],"was":[109,277],"linked":[110],"levels":[112,191],"non-pharmaceutical":[114],"interventions":[115],"via":[116],"certain":[117],"thresholds.":[118],"Due":[119],"its":[121],"definition,":[122],"counts":[126],"aggregated":[128],"date":[131],"case":[133,283],"report":[134],"rather":[135],"than":[136,294],"admission,":[137],"particularly":[142],"affected":[143],"take":[148],"several":[149],"weeks":[150],"or":[151],"months":[152],"fully":[154],"stabilize.":[155],"For":[156,298],"study,":[158],"all":[159,267,271],"methods":[160,224],"were":[161,192,216,225,261],"from":[163],"22":[164],"November":[165],"2021":[166],"29":[168],"April":[169],"2022,":[170],"with":[171,252],"probabilistic":[172],"nowcasts":[173,251,318],"produced":[174],"each":[175],"day":[176],"28":[181],"preceding":[182],"days.":[183],"Nowcasts":[184],"national,":[187],"state,":[188],"age-group":[190],"collected":[193],"form":[196],"quantiles":[198],"public":[201],"repository":[202],"displayed":[204],"dashboard.":[207],"Moreover,":[208],"mean":[210,313],"median":[213],"ensemble":[214,314],"nowcast":[215,272],"generated.":[217],"We":[218,321],"find":[219],"that":[220],"overall,":[221],"compared":[223],"able":[226],"remove":[228],"large":[230],"part":[231],"biases":[234],"introduced":[235],"delays.":[237],"Most":[238],"participating":[239],"underestimated":[241],"importance":[243],"very":[245],"long":[246],"delays,":[247],"though,":[248],"resulting":[249],"slight":[254],"downward":[255],"bias.":[256],"The":[257],"accompanying":[258],"prediction":[259],"intervals":[260],"also":[262],"too":[263],"narrow":[264],"almost":[266],"methods.":[268],"Averaged":[269],"over":[270],"horizons,":[273],"best":[275],"performance":[276],"achieved":[278],"model":[281],"using":[282],"as":[285],"covariate":[287],"taking":[289],"into":[290],"account":[291],"longer":[292],"other":[296],"approaches.":[297],"most":[300,308],"days,":[302],"considered":[306],"relevant":[309],"practice,":[311],"submitted":[317],"performed":[319],"best.":[320],"conclude":[322],"providing":[324],"some":[325],"lessons":[326],"learned":[327],"on":[328],"definition":[330],"targets":[333],"practical":[335],"challenges.":[336]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-05-06T08:25:59.206177","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}