{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4293780013","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","title":"Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions","display_name":"Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-08-26","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4293780013","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36026483"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033114427","display_name":"Tom\u00e1\u0161 Gaven\u010diak","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1119-2426"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I21250087","display_name":"Charles University","ror":"https://ror.org/024d6js02","country_code":"CZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I21250087"]}],"countries":["CZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tom\u00e1\u0161 Gaven\u010diak","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21250087"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080142325","display_name":"Joshua Teperowski Monrad","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7377-2074"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210089966","display_name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","ror":"https://ror.org/00a0jsq62","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120717","display_name":"Faculty of Public Health","ror":"https://ror.org/01zqv1s26","country_code":"GB","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210120717"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I909854389","display_name":"London School of Economics and Political Science","ror":"https://ror.org/0090zs177","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I909854389"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Joshua Teperowski Monrad","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom","Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I909854389"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210120717","https://openalex.org/I4210089966"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5029915724","display_name":"Gavin Leech","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9298-1488"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","display_name":"University of Bristol","ror":"https://ror.org/0524sp257","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gavin Leech","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003223014","display_name":"Mrinank Sharma","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4304-7963"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210146410","display_name":"Science Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/04j8yhy50","country_code":"GB","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210146410"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mrinank Sharma","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210146410","https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012960540","display_name":"S\u00f6ren Mindermann","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0315-9821"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"S\u00f6ren Mindermann","raw_affiliation_strings":["Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091290326","display_name":"Samir Bhatt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0891-4611"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I124055696","display_name":"University of Copenhagen","ror":"https://ror.org/035b05819","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124055696"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I47508984","display_name":"Imperial College London","ror":"https://ror.org/041kmwe10","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I47508984"]}],"countries":["DK","GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Samir Bhatt","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark","Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I124055696"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I47508984"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030437398","display_name":"Jan Brauner","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1588-5724"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jan Brauner","raw_affiliation_strings":["Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031843089","display_name":"Jan Kulveit","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3791-8355"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I21250087","display_name":"Charles University","ror":"https://ror.org/024d6js02","country_code":"CZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I21250087"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["CZ","GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jan Kulveit","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic","Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21250087"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":8,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5080142325"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149","https://openalex.org/I4210089966","https://openalex.org/I4210120717","https://openalex.org/I909854389"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2657,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2865},"fwci":7.3957,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":58,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98559874,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"18","issue":"8","first_page":"e1010435","last_page":"e1010435"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.9966999888420105,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.9934999942779541,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","score":0.7074548006057739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.6377246379852295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/temperate-climate","display_name":"Temperate climate","score":0.6339616775512695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2019-20-coronavirus-outbreak","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","score":0.6143632531166077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transmission","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","score":0.5747747421264648},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variation","display_name":"Variation (astronomy)","score":0.5105100870132446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.44422993063926697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biology","display_name":"Biology","score":0.41269126534461975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecology","display_name":"Ecology","score":0.344174325466156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.33214879035949707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.2356628179550171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.22626248002052307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.14740267395973206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.14668118953704834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.11384373903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.11311355233192444},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.09394010901451111},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/telecommunications","display_name":"Telecommunications","score":0.0814845860004425}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.7074548006057739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.6377246379852295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81461190","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q167466","display_name":"Temperate climate","level":2,"score":0.6339616775512695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.6143632531166077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.5747747421264648},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778334786","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1586270","display_name":"Variation (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.5105100870132446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.44422993063926697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.41269126534461975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.344174325466156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.33214879035949707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2356628179550171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.22626248002052307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.14740267395973206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.14668118953704834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.11384373903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.11311355233192444},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.09394010901451111},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0814845860004425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44870925","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37547","display_name":"Astrophysics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002980","descriptor_name":"Climate","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002980","descriptor_name":"Climate","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002980","descriptor_name":"Climate","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002980","descriptor_name":"Climate","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002980","descriptor_name":"Climate","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012621","descriptor_name":"Seasons","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":7,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:36026483","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36026483","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/cecea5d6-b959-4cef-bef4-803fb8bc0034","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/cecea5d6-b959-4cef-bef4-803fb8bc0034","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400895","display_name":"Bristol Research (University of Bristol)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","host_organization_name":"University of Bristol","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Gaven\u010diak, T, Monrad, J T, Leech, G, Sharma, M, Mindermann, S, Bhatt, S, Brauner, J & Kulveit, J 2022, 'Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions', PLOS Computational Biology. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},{"id":"pmh:oai:eprints.lse.ac.uk:116892","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401593","display_name":"London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I909854389","host_organization_name":"London School of Economics and Political Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I909854389"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"PeerReviewed"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:10ebc465f2884edaaccab0a40bb92c02","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/10ebc465f2884edaaccab0a40bb92c02","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 18, Iss 8, p e1010435 (2022)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9455844","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9455844","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:openaire_cris_publications/260e5efe-ecf5-44ae-8e43-38e71eedd596","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://researchprofiles.ku.dk/da/publications/260e5efe-ecf5-44ae-8e43-38e71eedd596","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401983","display_name":"Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I124055696","host_organization_name":"University of Copenhagen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124055696"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Gavenciak , T , Monrad , J T , Leech , G , Sharma , M , Mindermann , S , Bhatt , S , Brauner , J & Kulveit , J 2022 , ' Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates : A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions ' , PLoS Computational Biology , vol. 18 , no. 8 , 1010435 . https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":0.75,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1052272520","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MR/R015600/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338462","funder_display_name":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1290574323","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Award","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2347075150","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EDCTP2","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2366428187","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MR/R015600/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319990","funder_display_name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2740751069","display_name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis","funder_award_id":"MR/R015600/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","funder_display_name":"Medical Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2746181667","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320330760","funder_display_name":"Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3112244512","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MR/V038109/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","funder_display_name":"UK Research and Innovation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3122335838","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"OPP1197730","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G31554954","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"RDA02","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320284","funder_display_name":"Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3166327464","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MR/R015600/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3363401584","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"RDA02","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319990","funder_display_name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3514550006","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Centre","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3608459267","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NNF20OC0059309)","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325957","funder_display_name":"Novo Nordisk Fonden"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3806843037","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Springboard","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320241","funder_display_name":"Academy of Medical Sciences"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G393184570","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MR/R015600/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320330760","funder_display_name":"Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4071893609","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Centre for Doctoral Training in Int","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4180995733","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"OPP11","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4336306655","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MR/R015600/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4337640808","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2242671","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4592421031","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"analysis","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322436","funder_display_name":"Novo Nordisk"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G49701852","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EP/S022937/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","funder_display_name":"UK Research and Innovation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G514412981","display_name":"Multiresolution predictive dynamics of COVID-19 risk and intervention effects","funder_award_id":"MR/V038109/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","funder_display_name":"Medical Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5288895031","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G551833079","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NNF20OC0059309","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325957","funder_display_name":"Novo Nordisk Fonden"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5670947113","display_name":"EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Autonomous Intelligent Machines and Systems","funder_award_id":"EP/S024050/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5715794163","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EP/S022937/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5803958605","display_name":"John G. McCullough Free Library - to expand public access to computers and the Internet","funder_award_id":"OPP11977","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6244725262","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Centre for Doctoral Training","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6406438334","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","funder_display_name":"Medical Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6520098237","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MR/R015600/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","funder_display_name":"Medical Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7063735130","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EDCTP2","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338462","funder_display_name":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8046233024","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Complex Risks in Complex Systems (PRIMUS 22/HUM/020)","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320309755","funder_display_name":"Univerzita Karlova v Praze"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8092665698","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"MC_PC_19012","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","funder_display_name":"Medical Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8198710262","display_name":"Kappa Kappa Gamma Foundation - to support a scholarship fund","funder_award_id":"OPP119","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8537180282","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NNF20OC0059309","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322436","funder_display_name":"Novo Nordisk"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8895942654","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Imperial College","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8949023311","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PRIMUS","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320309755","funder_display_name":"Univerzita Karlova v Praze"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/0456r8d26"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320309755","display_name":"Univerzita Karlova v Praze","ror":"https://ror.org/024d6js02"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","display_name":"UK Research and Innovation","ror":"https://ror.org/001aqnf71"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320317153","display_name":"DeepMind","ror":"https://ror.org/00971b260"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320318095","display_name":"National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319985","display_name":"Cancer Research UK","ror":"https://ror.org/054225q67"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319990","display_name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research","ror":"https://ror.org/0187kwz08"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320241","display_name":"Academy of Medical Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00c489v88"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320283","display_name":"Imperial College London","ror":"https://ror.org/041kmwe10"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320284","display_name":"Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust","ror":"https://ror.org/056ffv270"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320290","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","display_name":"European Commission","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322035","display_name":"Rural Development Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/03xs9yg50"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322436","display_name":"Novo Nordisk","ror":"https://ror.org/0435rc536"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325957","display_name":"Novo Nordisk Fonden","ror":"https://ror.org/04txyc737"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320330760","display_name":"Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","display_name":"Medical Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/03x94j517"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/0439y7842"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338462","display_name":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership","ror":"https://ror.org/031jv9v19"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4293780013.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4293780013.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":44,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1981529455","https://openalex.org/W1987860229","https://openalex.org/W2016900314","https://openalex.org/W2072799635","https://openalex.org/W2085424172","https://openalex.org/W2100753820","https://openalex.org/W2101660588","https://openalex.org/W2105723189","https://openalex.org/W2108144722","https://openalex.org/W2129728285","https://openalex.org/W2142176189","https://openalex.org/W2142773663","https://openalex.org/W2165012312","https://openalex.org/W2169258494","https://openalex.org/W2419019064","https://openalex.org/W2463635797","https://openalex.org/W2921976328","https://openalex.org/W2944868902","https://openalex.org/W2950504050","https://openalex.org/W2963977107","https://openalex.org/W3006655826","https://openalex.org/W3008443627","https://openalex.org/W3010647567","https://openalex.org/W3010940342","https://openalex.org/W3012108358","https://openalex.org/W3015988827","https://openalex.org/W3025654679","https://openalex.org/W3033099837","https://openalex.org/W3034928620","https://openalex.org/W3081314660","https://openalex.org/W3093991130","https://openalex.org/W3111564425","https://openalex.org/W3119858919","https://openalex.org/W3120047031","https://openalex.org/W3135382942","https://openalex.org/W3159771495","https://openalex.org/W3166084170","https://openalex.org/W3166391143","https://openalex.org/W3170215671","https://openalex.org/W3191721219","https://openalex.org/W3201866125","https://openalex.org/W4239975174","https://openalex.org/W6788553154","https://openalex.org/W6794800126"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3127156785","https://openalex.org/W3009669391","https://openalex.org/W4200329650","https://openalex.org/W4205215807","https://openalex.org/W3005417802","https://openalex.org/W4205754011","https://openalex.org/W4226296940","https://openalex.org/W3028835529","https://openalex.org/W3036314732","https://openalex.org/W3134376730"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Although":[0],"seasonal":[1,52,83,119,162],"variation":[2,53,107],"has":[3],"a":[4,25,59,98,105,112,166],"known":[5],"influence":[6],"on":[7,30],"the":[8,49,79,87,117,148,169,194,199,207,217,225],"transmission":[9,19,57,109,211],"of":[10,33,62,74,82,89,97,116,126,150,177,188,196,201,209,228],"several":[11],"respiratory":[12],"viral":[13,56],"infections,":[14],"its":[15],"role":[16,149],"in":[17,95,108,137,156,168,214],"SARS-CoV-2":[18,210],"remains":[20],"unclear.":[21],"While":[22],"there":[23],"is":[24,212],"sizable":[26],"and":[27,41,69,110,131,153],"growing":[28],"literature":[29],"environmental":[31],"drivers":[32],"COVID-19":[34],"transmission,":[35],"recent":[36],"reviews":[37],"have":[38],"highlighted":[39],"conflicting":[40],"inconclusive":[42],"findings.":[43],"This":[44],"indeterminacy":[45],"partly":[46],"owes":[47],"to":[48,55,143,198,216],"fact":[50],"that":[51,206],"relates":[54],"by":[58,181],"complicated":[60],"web":[61],"causal":[63,93],"pathways,":[64],"including":[65],"many":[66],"interacting":[67],"biological":[68],"behavioural":[70],"factors.":[71],"Since":[72],"analyses":[73],"specific":[75],"factors":[76],"cannot":[77],"determine":[78],"aggregate":[80],"strength":[81],"forcing,":[84],"we":[85,140],"sidestep":[86],"challenge":[88],"disentangling":[90],"various":[91],"possible":[92],"paths":[94],"favor":[96],"holistic":[99],"approach.":[100],"We":[101,159],"model":[102],"seasonality":[103,208],"as":[104],"sinusoidal":[106],"infer":[111],"single":[113],"Bayesian":[114],"estimate":[115],"overall":[118],"effect.":[120],"By":[121],"extending":[122],"two":[123],"state-of-the-art":[124],"models":[125],"non-pharmaceutical":[127],"intervention":[128],"(NPI)":[129],"effects":[130],"their":[132],"datasets":[133],"covering":[134],"143":[135],"regions":[136],"temperate":[138],"Europe,":[139],"are":[141],"able":[142],"adjust":[144],"our":[145],"estimates":[146],"for":[147],"both":[151],"NPIs":[152,221],"mobility":[154],"patterns":[155],"reducing":[157],"transmission.":[158],"find":[160],"strong":[161],"patterns,":[163],"consistent":[164],"with":[165],"reduction":[167],"time-varying":[170],"reproduction":[171],"number":[172,176],"R(t)":[173],"(the":[174],"expected":[175],"new":[178],"infections":[179],"generated":[180],"an":[182],"infectious":[183],"individual":[184,220],"at":[185],"time":[186],"t)":[187],"42.1%":[189],"(95%":[190],"CI:":[191],"24.7%-53.4%)":[192],"from":[193],"peak":[195,200],"winter":[197],"summer.":[202],"These":[203],"results":[204],"imply":[205],"comparable":[213],"magnitude":[215],"most":[218],"effective":[219],"but":[222],"less":[223],"than":[224],"combined":[226],"effect":[227],"multiple":[229],"interventions.":[230]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":18},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-04-10T15:06:20.359241","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}