{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4283579734","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","title":"An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China","display_name":"An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-06-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4283579734","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35759513"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047629145","display_name":"Yuliang Chen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0456-7763"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32574673","display_name":"Shantou University","ror":"https://ror.org/01a099706","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120522","display_name":"Shantou University Medical College","ror":"https://ror.org/02gxych78","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yuliang Chen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673","https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100338131","display_name":"Tao Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1451-5251"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210152526","display_name":"Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention","ror":"https://ror.org/04tms6279","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210152526"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tao Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1451-5251","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210152526"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023894386","display_name":"Xiaolin Yu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9248-9568"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32574673","display_name":"Shantou University","ror":"https://ror.org/01a099706","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120522","display_name":"Shantou University Medical College","ror":"https://ror.org/02gxych78","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xiaolin Yu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9248-9568","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673","https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103153930","display_name":"Qinghui Zeng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3257-8910"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32574673","display_name":"Shantou University","ror":"https://ror.org/01a099706","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120522","display_name":"Shantou University Medical College","ror":"https://ror.org/02gxych78","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Qinghui Zeng","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673","https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054759859","display_name":"Zixi Cai","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32574673","display_name":"Shantou University","ror":"https://ror.org/01a099706","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zixi Cai","raw_affiliation_strings":["Shantou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shantou, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Shantou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shantou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034063408","display_name":"Haisheng Wu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4011-0704"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32574673","display_name":"Shantou University","ror":"https://ror.org/01a099706","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120522","display_name":"Shantou University Medical College","ror":"https://ror.org/02gxych78","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Haisheng Wu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673","https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101426027","display_name":"Qingying Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4908-4757"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32574673","display_name":"Shantou University","ror":"https://ror.org/01a099706","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120522","display_name":"Shantou University Medical College","ror":"https://ror.org/02gxych78","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Qingying Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673","https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5008885437","display_name":"Jianpeng Xiao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9665-6036"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210152526","display_name":"Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention","ror":"https://ror.org/04tms6279","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210152526"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jianpeng Xiao","raw_affiliation_strings":["Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210152526"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112385733","display_name":"Wenjun Ma","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1451-5251"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210152526","display_name":"Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention","ror":"https://ror.org/04tms6279","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210152526"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Wenjun Ma","raw_affiliation_strings":["Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210152526"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5089869489","display_name":"Sen Pei","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7072-2995"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sen Pei","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7072-2995","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090243481","display_name":"Pi Guo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0990-6461"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32574673","display_name":"Shantou University","ror":"https://ror.org/01a099706","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32574673"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210120522","display_name":"Shantou University Medical College","ror":"https://ror.org/02gxych78","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Pi Guo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0990-6461","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673","https://openalex.org/I4210120522"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5089869489","https://openalex.org/A5090243481","https://openalex.org/A5112385733"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32574673","https://openalex.org/I4210120522","https://openalex.org/I4210152526","https://openalex.org/I78577930"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":2.5734,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":14,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.89110798,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"18","issue":"6","first_page":"e1010218","last_page":"e1010218"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10166","display_name":"Mosquito-borne diseases and control","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10166","display_name":"Mosquito-borne diseases and control","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9959999918937683,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12047","display_name":"Viral Infections and Vectors","score":0.9958000183105469,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dengue-fever","display_name":"Dengue fever","score":0.8770697712898254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.7614922523498535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","score":0.5799557566642761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.5047870874404907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transmission","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","score":0.45694029331207275},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dengue-virus","display_name":"Dengue virus","score":0.41080546379089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.3887472152709961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3873908817768097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.34319621324539185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.32398784160614014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meteorology","display_name":"Meteorology","score":0.28642261028289795},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demography","display_name":"Demography","score":0.21060675382614136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.19846618175506592},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biology","display_name":"Biology","score":0.169293612241745},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.16016680002212524}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C533803919","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q30953","display_name":"Dengue fever","level":2,"score":0.8770697712898254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.7614922523498535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.5799557566642761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5047870874404907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.45694029331207275},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779635636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q476209","display_name":"Dengue virus","level":3,"score":0.41080546379089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3887472152709961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3873908817768097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.34319621324539185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.32398784160614014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.28642261028289795},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.21060675382614136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.19846618175506592},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.169293612241745},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.16016680002212524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000072138","descriptor_name":"Mosquito Vectors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000072138","descriptor_name":"Mosquito Vectors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000072138","descriptor_name":"Mosquito Vectors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000818","descriptor_name":"Animals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000818","descriptor_name":"Animals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000818","descriptor_name":"Animals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002681","descriptor_name":"China","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002681","descriptor_name":"China","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002681","descriptor_name":"China","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003715","descriptor_name":"Dengue","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003715","descriptor_name":"Dengue","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003715","descriptor_name":"Dengue","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D009033","descriptor_name":"Culicidae","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D009033","descriptor_name":"Culicidae","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D009033","descriptor_name":"Culicidae","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D012189","descriptor_name":"Retrospective Studies","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012189","descriptor_name":"Retrospective Studies","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012189","descriptor_name":"Retrospective Studies","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:35759513","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35759513","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:2263da1137f84e7197b67af10ab6310c","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/2263da1137f84e7197b67af10ab6310c","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 18, Iss 6, p e1010218 (2022)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9269975","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9269975","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8700000047683716,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5145738580","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"81703323","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5752162884","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NO. 81773497","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7571783479","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2018YFA0606200","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335777","funder_display_name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332162","display_name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","ror":"https://ror.org/042twtr12"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335777","display_name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4283579734.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4283579734.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":48,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W154982423","https://openalex.org/W274452916","https://openalex.org/W1615607538","https://openalex.org/W1650635506","https://openalex.org/W1977086731","https://openalex.org/W1997722165","https://openalex.org/W2020088285","https://openalex.org/W2042479028","https://openalex.org/W2063906603","https://openalex.org/W2065211178","https://openalex.org/W2079884780","https://openalex.org/W2091171349","https://openalex.org/W2096551676","https://openalex.org/W2098155356","https://openalex.org/W2100253428","https://openalex.org/W2102810005","https://openalex.org/W2117400478","https://openalex.org/W2131222241","https://openalex.org/W2143469080","https://openalex.org/W2152887095","https://openalex.org/W2158832254","https://openalex.org/W2166575329","https://openalex.org/W2179584279","https://openalex.org/W2334312104","https://openalex.org/W2342282097","https://openalex.org/W2369877784","https://openalex.org/W2482860176","https://openalex.org/W2531458834","https://openalex.org/W2560814907","https://openalex.org/W2589339869","https://openalex.org/W2607083325","https://openalex.org/W2761473263","https://openalex.org/W2772004151","https://openalex.org/W2791420655","https://openalex.org/W2795390616","https://openalex.org/W2807079879","https://openalex.org/W2807402268","https://openalex.org/W2885676436","https://openalex.org/W2887984741","https://openalex.org/W2890636333","https://openalex.org/W2953342850","https://openalex.org/W2954366093","https://openalex.org/W2988205563","https://openalex.org/W2997697448","https://openalex.org/W3006509283","https://openalex.org/W3011208276","https://openalex.org/W3096946259","https://openalex.org/W3118395338"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2399399246","https://openalex.org/W1585158025","https://openalex.org/W2775372485","https://openalex.org/W2149961808","https://openalex.org/W2549485495","https://openalex.org/W2021776701","https://openalex.org/W3004711645","https://openalex.org/W3156758060","https://openalex.org/W951912817","https://openalex.org/W2034848905"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"As":[0],"a":[1,22,65,74,211],"common":[2],"vector-borne":[3],"disease,":[4],"dengue":[5,43,92,111,186,234],"fever":[6,44,93],"remains":[7],"challenging":[8],"to":[9,12,87,106,142,229],"predict":[10],"due":[11],"large":[13],"variations":[14,126],"in":[15,130,188,223],"epidemic":[16],"size":[17,129,136,163,177],"across":[18],"seasons":[19],"driven":[20],"by":[21,100],"number":[23],"of":[24,52,69,91,110,127,185,202,233],"factors":[25],"including":[26],"population":[27,135,162],"susceptibility,":[28],"mosquito":[29,103,116],"density,":[30],"meteorological":[31,101],"conditions,":[32],"geographical":[33],"factors,":[34],"and":[35,102,115,118,169,207,225],"human":[36,114],"mobility.":[37],"An":[38],"ensemble":[39,60,80,217],"forecast":[40,61,184,197,218],"system":[41,62,219],"for":[42,123],"is":[45,85,139,148,178],"first":[46],"proposed":[47,196],"that":[48,138,173],"addresses":[49],"the":[50,79,108,124,133,144,151,155,160,165,174,182,192,195,231],"difficulty":[51],"predicting":[53],"outbreaks":[54,187],"with":[55,73],"drastically":[56],"different":[57,131],"scales.":[58],"The":[59,96,216],"based":[63],"on":[64],"susceptible-infected-recovered":[66],"(SIR)":[67],"type":[68],"compartmental":[70],"model":[71,97,198,214],"coupled":[72],"data":[75],"assimilation":[76],"method":[77],"called":[78],"adjusted":[81],"Kalman":[82],"filter":[83],"(EAKF)":[84],"constructed":[86],"generate":[88,119],"real-time":[89,224],"forecasts":[90],"spread":[94],"dynamics.":[95],"was":[98],"informed":[99],"density":[104],"information":[105],"depict":[107],"transmission":[109,156],"virus":[112],"among":[113],"populations,":[117],"predictions.":[120],"To":[121],"account":[122],"dramatic":[125],"outbreak":[128,146,176],"seasons,":[132,194],"effective":[134,161],"parameter":[137],"sequentially":[140],"updated":[141],"adjust":[143],"predicted":[145,175],"scale":[147],"introduced":[149],"into":[150],"model.":[152],"Before":[153],"optimizing":[154],"model,":[157],"we":[158],"update":[159],"using":[164],"most":[166],"recent":[167],"observations":[168],"historical":[170],"records":[171],"so":[172],"dynamically":[179],"adjusted.":[180],"In":[181],"retrospective":[183],"Guangzhou,":[189],"China":[190],"during":[191],"2011-2017":[193],"generates":[199],"accurate":[200],"projections":[201],"peak":[203,205],"timing,":[204],"intensity,":[206],"total":[208],"incidence,":[209],"outperforming":[210],"generalized":[212],"additive":[213],"approach.":[215],"can":[220],"be":[221],"operated":[222],"inform":[226],"control":[227],"planning":[228],"reduce":[230],"burden":[232],"fever.":[235]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-07-08T08:33:18.762332","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
