{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3208321177","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","title":"OutbreakFlow: Model-based Bayesian inference of disease outbreak dynamics with invertible neural networks and its application to the COVID-19 pandemics in Germany","display_name":"OutbreakFlow: Model-based Bayesian inference of disease outbreak dynamics with invertible neural networks and its application to the COVID-19 pandemics in Germany","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-10-25","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3208321177","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","mag":"3208321177","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34695111"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004723202","display_name":"Stefan T. Radev","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6702-9559"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Stefan T. Radev","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Psychology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6702-9559","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Psychology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058044076","display_name":"Frederik Graw","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1198-6632"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frederik Graw","raw_affiliation_strings":["BioQuant - Center for Quantitative Biology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1198-6632","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"BioQuant - Center for Quantitative Biology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080287965","display_name":"Simiao Chen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0555-2157"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I200296433","display_name":"Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College","ror":"https://ror.org/02drdmm93","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I200296433"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801228662","display_name":"Peking Union Medical College Hospital","ror":"https://ror.org/04jztag35","country_code":"CN","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801228662"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802164966","display_name":"University Hospital Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/013czdx64","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]}],"countries":["CN","DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Simiao Chen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China","Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0555-2157","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801228662","https://openalex.org/I200296433"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909","https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066551739","display_name":"Nico T. Mutters","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0156-9595"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2799391451","display_name":"University Hospital Bonn","ror":"https://ror.org/01xnwqx93","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799391451"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nico T. Mutters","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Hygiene and Public Health, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0156-9595","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Hygiene and Public Health, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2799391451"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5048659639","display_name":"Vanessa M. Eichel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3259-2920"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802164966","display_name":"University Hospital Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/013czdx64","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Vanessa M. Eichel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center of Infectious Diseases, University Hospital Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3259-2920","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center of Infectious Diseases, University Hospital Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966","https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003138186","display_name":"Till B\u00e4rnighausen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4182-4212"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802164966","display_name":"University Hospital Heidelberg","ror":"https://ror.org/013czdx64","country_code":"DE","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210127310","display_name":"Africa Health Research Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/034m6ke32","country_code":"ZA","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210127310","https://openalex.org/I87048295"]}],"countries":["DE","US","ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Till B\u00e4rnighausen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa","Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America","Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4182-4212","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210127310"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909","https://openalex.org/I2802164966"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110454166","display_name":"Ullrich K\u00f6the","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I223822909","display_name":"Heidelberg University","ror":"https://ror.org/038t36y30","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ullrich K\u00f6the","raw_affiliation_strings":["Computer Vision and Learning Lab, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6036-1287","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Computer Vision and Learning Lab, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":4,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5004723202"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I223822909"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2205,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2378},"fwci":2.0078,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":34,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86820708,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"17","issue":"10","first_page":"e1009472","last_page":"e1009472"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10167","display_name":"Influenza Virus Research Studies","score":0.9878000020980835,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10439","display_name":"Climate change impacts on agriculture","score":0.9122999906539917,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6916931867599487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inference","display_name":"Inference","score":0.640927791595459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.5879095792770386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.5209835171699524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-neural-network","display_name":"Artificial neural network","score":0.5144882202148438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.4835798144340515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.4820778965950012},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.46542614698410034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-modelling-of-infectious-disease","display_name":"Mathematical modelling of infectious disease","score":0.43798500299453735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-model","display_name":"Statistical model","score":0.426222026348114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.4131094813346863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.4072834551334381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.35094648599624634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.2506769895553589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.1021379828453064}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6916931867599487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.640927791595459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5879095792770386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5209835171699524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.5144882202148438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4835798144340515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.4820778965950012},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.46542614698410034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101531171","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q990044","display_name":"Mathematical modelling of infectious disease","level":4,"score":0.43798500299453735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.426222026348114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.4131094813346863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.4072834551334381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.35094648599624634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.2506769895553589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.1021379828453064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005858","descriptor_name":"Germany","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:34695111","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34695111","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2010.00300","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.00300","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.00300","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:c2ab8101c9a24307b30cefb605157c82","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/c2ab8101c9a24307b30cefb605157c82","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 17, Iss 10, p e1009472 (2021)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:7474853","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://europepmc.org/pmc/articles/PMC8584772","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8584772","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8584772","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009472&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8299999833106995,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2259167076","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"GRK 2277","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","funder_display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G552393262","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"INV-006261","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7773841895","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Project INV-006261","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","funder_display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306137","display_name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/0456r8d26"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320308269","display_name":"Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung","ror":"https://ror.org/012kf4317"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","ror":"https://ror.org/018mejw64"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321114","display_name":"Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Bildung und Forschung","ror":"https://ror.org/04pz7b180"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324316","display_name":"Klaus Tschira Stiftung","ror":"https://ror.org/052jep661"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320327540","display_name":"Chica and Heinz Schaller Foundation","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3208321177.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3208321177.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":64,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1965175390","https://openalex.org/W2025000283","https://openalex.org/W2026653933","https://openalex.org/W2032616735","https://openalex.org/W2045656233","https://openalex.org/W2065069831","https://openalex.org/W2097117768","https://openalex.org/W2100708780","https://openalex.org/W2116261113","https://openalex.org/W2136848157","https://openalex.org/W2166022262","https://openalex.org/W2335001735","https://openalex.org/W2594816818","https://openalex.org/W2736620193","https://openalex.org/W2797452937","https://openalex.org/W2915656168","https://openalex.org/W2949236913","https://openalex.org/W2949631852","https://openalex.org/W2963218043","https://openalex.org/W2963822196","https://openalex.org/W2975024646","https://openalex.org/W3003573988","https://openalex.org/W3005529452","https://openalex.org/W3006655826","https://openalex.org/W3007580879","https://openalex.org/W3008827533","https://openalex.org/W3009468976","https://openalex.org/W3010131837","https://openalex.org/W3010383561","https://openalex.org/W3010647567","https://openalex.org/W3012284084","https://openalex.org/W3012496101","https://openalex.org/W3013188135","https://openalex.org/W3014570987","https://openalex.org/W3018228603","https://openalex.org/W3022839876","https://openalex.org/W3023190093","https://openalex.org/W3024403805","https://openalex.org/W3025600770","https://openalex.org/W3025654679","https://openalex.org/W3031514878","https://openalex.org/W3032725243","https://openalex.org/W3032971139","https://openalex.org/W3033219406","https://openalex.org/W3035189381","https://openalex.org/W3040552450","https://openalex.org/W3045997785","https://openalex.org/W3101046181","https://openalex.org/W3108139339","https://openalex.org/W3112286896","https://openalex.org/W3117021508","https://openalex.org/W3117609339","https://openalex.org/W3124001654","https://openalex.org/W3145065436","https://openalex.org/W3148419734","https://openalex.org/W3158760197","https://openalex.org/W3167438434","https://openalex.org/W3175666822","https://openalex.org/W3213412084","https://openalex.org/W3214607193","https://openalex.org/W4225897185","https://openalex.org/W4235301045","https://openalex.org/W4248681815","https://openalex.org/W4288350962"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2378327072","https://openalex.org/W326517241","https://openalex.org/W3193316261","https://openalex.org/W1963959170","https://openalex.org/W3122205993","https://openalex.org/W1548037568","https://openalex.org/W1965606190","https://openalex.org/W2358968663","https://openalex.org/W2803441138","https://openalex.org/W52930762"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Mathematical":[0],"models":[1,24,48],"in":[2,160,227],"epidemiology":[3],"are":[4,25,232],"an":[5,36,105,150],"indispensable":[6],"tool":[7],"to":[8,28,49,68,162,182,198,221,234],"determine":[9],"the":[10,42,113,129,137,141,146,155,158,165,222],"dynamics":[11,44,167],"and":[12,32,55,153,168,208,257],"important":[13,240],"characteristics":[14],"of":[15,76,91,132,149,157,185,218,248,252,265],"infectious":[16],"diseases.":[17],"Apart":[18],"from":[19,71],"their":[20],"scientific":[21],"merit,":[22],"these":[23,215],"often":[26],"used":[27,116],"inform":[29],"political":[30],"decisions":[31],"interventional":[33],"measures":[34],"during":[35],"ongoing":[37],"outbreak.":[38],"However,":[39],"reliably":[40,169],"inferring":[41],"epidemical":[43],"by":[45],"connecting":[46],"complex":[47],"real":[50],"data":[51,148],"is":[52,115,180,192,196],"still":[53],"hard":[54],"requires":[56],"either":[57],"laborious":[58],"manual":[59],"parameter":[60,206],"fitting":[61],"or":[62],"expensive":[63],"optimization":[64],"methods":[65],"which":[66,124],"have":[67],"be":[69],"repeated":[70],"scratch":[72],"for":[73,120,239],"every":[74],"application":[75],"a":[77,88,109,118,121,183,261],"given":[78],"model.":[79],"In":[80,104,136],"this":[81,85],"work,":[82],"we":[83,231],"address":[84],"problem":[86],"with":[87,94],"novel":[89],"combination":[90],"epidemiological":[92,186],"modeling":[93],"specialized":[95],"neural":[96,122,143],"networks.":[97],"Our":[98],"approach":[99,179],"entails":[100],"two":[101],"computational":[102],"phases:":[103],"initial":[106],"training":[107],"phase,":[108,140],"mathematical":[110],"model":[111,159],"describing":[112],"epidemic":[114],"as":[117,244],"coach":[119],"network,":[123],"acquires":[125],"global":[126],"knowledge":[127,203],"about":[128,204],"full":[130],"range":[131],"possible":[133],"disease":[134,241],"dynamics.":[135],"subsequent":[138],"inference":[139],"trained":[142],"network":[144],"processes":[145],"observed":[147,166],"actual":[151],"outbreak":[152,225],"infers":[154],"parameters":[156],"order":[161],"realistically":[163],"reproduce":[164],"predict":[170],"future":[171],"progression.":[172],"With":[173],"its":[174],"flexible":[175],"framework,":[176],"our":[177,190,219],"simulation-based":[178],"applicable":[181],"variety":[184],"models.":[187],"Moreover,":[188],"since":[189],"method":[191,220],"fully":[193],"Bayesian,":[194],"it":[195],"designed":[197],"incorporate":[199],"all":[200],"available":[201],"prior":[202],"plausible":[205],"values":[207],"returns":[209],"complete":[210],"joint":[211],"posterior":[212],"distributions":[213],"over":[214],"parameters.":[216],"Application":[217],"early":[223],"Covid-19":[224],"phase":[226],"Germany":[228],"demonstrates":[229],"that":[230],"able":[233],"obtain":[235],"reliable":[236],"probabilistic":[237],"estimates":[238],"characteristics,":[242],"such":[243],"generation":[245],"time,":[246],"fraction":[247],"undetected":[249],"infections,":[250],"likelihood":[251],"transmission":[253],"before":[254],"symptom":[255],"onset,":[256],"reporting":[258],"delays":[259],"using":[260],"very":[262],"moderate":[263],"amount":[264],"real-world":[266],"observations.":[267]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-05-06T08:25:59.206177","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
