{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3031381838","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","title":"Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format","display_name":"Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-02-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3031381838","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","mag":"3031381838","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33577550"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","datacite","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081121618","display_name":"Johannes Bracher","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3777-1410"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71030271","display_name":"Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01f7bcy98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Johannes Bracher","raw_affiliation_strings":["Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065779040","display_name":"Evan L Ray","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4035-0243"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24603500","display_name":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","ror":"https://ror.org/0072zz521","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Evan L. Ray","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Public Health and Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Public Health and Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046150465","display_name":"Tilmann Gneiting","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9397-3271"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71030271","display_name":"Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies","ror":"https://ror.org/01f7bcy98","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tilmann Gneiting","raw_affiliation_strings":["Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Germany","Institute for Stochastics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71030271"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Stochastics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071543888","display_name":"Nicholas G Reich","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3503-9899"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24603500","display_name":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","ror":"https://ror.org/0072zz521","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Nicholas G. Reich","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Public Health and Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Public Health and Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5071543888"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":36.6105,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":292,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99924254,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"17","issue":"2","first_page":"e1008618","last_page":"e1008618"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9976999759674072,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9976999759674072,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11871","display_name":"Advanced Statistical Methods and Models","score":0.9629999995231628,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10282","display_name":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","score":0.9437999725341797,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6198214292526245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-interval","display_name":"Prediction interval","score":0.5753061175346375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.5673468112945557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantile","display_name":"Quantile","score":0.5609120726585388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interval","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","score":0.5565580129623413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalization","display_name":"Generalization","score":0.5272138118743896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consensus-forecast","display_name":"Consensus forecast","score":0.50737065076828},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.48986002802848816},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/credible-interval","display_name":"Credible interval","score":0.486098051071167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","score":0.46375375986099243},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.463541716337204},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4632021486759186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4366220533847809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/confidence-interval","display_name":"Confidence interval","score":0.4142516851425171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.2854772210121155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.243929922580719},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.17772945761680603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.14199873805046082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.12315282225608826}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6198214292526245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.5753061175346375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5673468112945557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118671147","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q578714","display_name":"Quantile","level":2,"score":0.5609120726585388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.5565580129623413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177148314","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170084","display_name":"Generalization","level":2,"score":0.5272138118743896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.50737065076828},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.48986002802848816},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121117317","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4439221","display_name":"Credible interval","level":3,"score":0.486098051071167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.46375375986099243},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.463541716337204},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4632021486759186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4366220533847809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.4142516851425171},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2854772210121155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.243929922580719},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.17772945761680603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.14199873805046082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.12315282225608826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114614502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q76592","display_name":"Combinatorics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000821","qualifier_name":"virology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000821","qualifier_name":"virology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000821","qualifier_name":"virology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000821","qualifier_name":"virology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":"Q000302","qualifier_name":"isolation & purification","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":"Q000302","qualifier_name":"isolation & purification","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":"Q000302","qualifier_name":"isolation & purification","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":"Q000302","qualifier_name":"isolation & purification","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003141","descriptor_name":"Communicable Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003141","descriptor_name":"Communicable Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003141","descriptor_name":"Communicable Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003141","descriptor_name":"Communicable Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011336","descriptor_name":"Probability","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011336","descriptor_name":"Probability","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011336","descriptor_name":"Probability","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011336","descriptor_name":"Probability","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":10,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:33577550","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33577550","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2005.12881","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12881","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12881","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:EVASTAR-Karlsruhe.de:1000135014","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000135014","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401992","display_name":"Repository KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","host_organization_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"ISSN: 1553-7358","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},{"id":"pmh:oai:scholarworks.umass.edu:bioepi_faculty_pubs-1042","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://scholarworks.umass.edu/bioepi_faculty_pubs/42","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402057","display_name":"Scholarworks (University of Massachusetts Amherst)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I24603500","host_organization_name":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Biostatistics and Epidemiology Faculty Publications Series","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1008618","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:ca7ae5c7d221495d83bd6ed87855f369","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/ca7ae5c7d221495d83bd6ed87855f369","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 17, Iss 2, p e1008618 (2021)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7880475","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7880475","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:scholarworks.umass.edu:20.500.14394/3757","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14394/3757","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402240","display_name":"ScholarWorks@UMassAmherst (University of Massachusetts Amherst)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I24603500","host_organization_name":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"published","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"doi:10.5445/ir/1000135014","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000135014","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407052948","display_name":"KITopen","issn_l":null,"issn":[],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8700000047683716,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6122954585","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"1U01IP001122","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332162","funder_display_name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320324316","display_name":"Klaus Tschira Stiftung","ror":"https://ror.org/052jep661"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332162","display_name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","ror":"https://ror.org/042twtr12"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3031381838.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3031381838.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":36,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1983125795","https://openalex.org/W1984925443","https://openalex.org/W2008709824","https://openalex.org/W2025720061","https://openalex.org/W2027216529","https://openalex.org/W2065089656","https://openalex.org/W2075965721","https://openalex.org/W2119839985","https://openalex.org/W2126795629","https://openalex.org/W2130715829","https://openalex.org/W2148402438","https://openalex.org/W2296521892","https://openalex.org/W2304821373","https://openalex.org/W2329494830","https://openalex.org/W2584549161","https://openalex.org/W2755746910","https://openalex.org/W2796293253","https://openalex.org/W2890970784","https://openalex.org/W2904883024","https://openalex.org/W2909758842","https://openalex.org/W2912023657","https://openalex.org/W2950181669","https://openalex.org/W2952959099","https://openalex.org/W2959101608","https://openalex.org/W2963507686","https://openalex.org/W2969976360","https://openalex.org/W2975053335","https://openalex.org/W2976061511","https://openalex.org/W2988205563","https://openalex.org/W3038817229","https://openalex.org/W3042156163","https://openalex.org/W3080387602","https://openalex.org/W3111504971","https://openalex.org/W3125696988","https://openalex.org/W3160899915","https://openalex.org/W4291327732"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4312560394","https://openalex.org/W4319216254","https://openalex.org/W3108096541","https://openalex.org/W2993094624","https://openalex.org/W2185949831","https://openalex.org/W4248109090","https://openalex.org/W3123575011","https://openalex.org/W2092263746","https://openalex.org/W4239038426","https://openalex.org/W43322209"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"For":[0],"practical":[1],"reasons,":[2],"many":[3],"forecasts":[4,41,92,98,139],"of":[5,14,27,81,88,109,133,148],"case,":[6],"hospitalization,":[7],"and":[8,90,107,140,150,154],"death":[9],"counts":[10],"in":[11,24,43,60,99],"the":[12,15,25,37,40,44,53,86,105,110,121,134],"context":[13],"current":[16],"Coronavirus":[17],"Disease":[18],"2019":[19],"(COVID-19)":[20],"pandemic":[21],"are":[22,66],"issued":[23],"form":[26],"central":[28],"predictive":[29,74],"intervals":[30],"at":[31],"various":[32],"levels.":[33],"This":[34,76],"is":[35,115],"also":[36],"case":[38],"for":[39,85,142,152],"collected":[42],"COVID-19":[45],"Forecast":[46,49],"Hub":[47],"(https://covid19forecasthub.org/).":[48],"evaluation":[50,87],"metrics":[51],"like":[52],"logarithmic":[54],"score,":[55,113],"which":[56,114],"has":[57],"been":[58],"applied":[59,95],"several":[61],"infectious":[62],"disease":[63],"forecasting":[64],"challenges,":[65],"then":[67],"not":[68],"available":[69],"as":[70,130],"they":[71],"require":[72],"full":[73],"distributions.":[75],"article":[77],"provides":[78],"an":[79],"overview":[80],"how":[82],"established":[83],"methods":[84],"quantile":[89],"interval":[91,112],"can":[93,127],"be":[94,128],"to":[96,137],"epidemic":[97],"this":[100],"format.":[101],"Specifically,":[102],"we":[103],"discuss":[104],"computation":[106],"interpretation":[108],"weighted":[111],"a":[116,131,143,146],"proper":[117],"score":[118],"that":[119],"approximates":[120],"continuous":[122],"ranked":[123],"probability":[124],"score.":[125],"It":[126],"interpreted":[129],"generalization":[132],"absolute":[135],"error":[136],"probabilistic":[138],"allows":[141],"decomposition":[144],"into":[145],"measure":[147],"sharpness":[149],"penalties":[151],"over-":[153],"underprediction.":[155]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":21},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":67},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":59},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":59},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":40},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":44},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-04-18T07:56:08.524223","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}