{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3110800957","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","title":"Empirical model for short-time prediction of COVID-19 spreading","display_name":"Empirical model for short-time prediction of COVID-19 spreading","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-12-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3110800957","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","mag":"3110800957","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33296373"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032436254","display_name":"Mart\u00ed Catal\u00e0","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3308-9905"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210137002","display_name":"Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol","ror":"https://ror.org/03bzdww12","country_code":"ES","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210137002","https://openalex.org/I4387153040"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9617848","display_name":"Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/03mb6wj31","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mart\u00ed Catal\u00e0","raw_affiliation_strings":["Comparative Medicine and Bioimage Centre of Catalonia (CMCiB), Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain","Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3308-9905","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Comparative Medicine and Bioimage Centre of Catalonia (CMCiB), Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210137002"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068363272","display_name":"Sergio Alonso","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3989-8757"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9617848","display_name":"Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/03mb6wj31","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sergio Alonso","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3989-8757","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069323459","display_name":"Enrique \u00c1lvarez-Lacalle","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6824-6857"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9617848","display_name":"Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/03mb6wj31","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Enrique Alvarez-Lacalle","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6824-6857","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5005772227","display_name":"Daniel L\u00f3pez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0408-4526"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9617848","display_name":"Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/03mb6wj31","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel L\u00f3pez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5000283880","display_name":"P\u00e8re-Joan Cardona","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5623-7873"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I123044942","display_name":"Universitat Aut\u00f2noma de Barcelona","ror":"https://ror.org/052g8jq94","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I123044942"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210099160","display_name":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias","ror":"https://ror.org/0119pby33","country_code":"ES","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4210099160","https://openalex.org/I4210115082","https://openalex.org/I4387152914"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210137002","display_name":"Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol","ror":"https://ror.org/03bzdww12","country_code":"ES","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210137002","https://openalex.org/I4387153040"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pere-Joan Cardona","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid, Spain","Comparative Medicine and Bioimage Centre of Catalonia (CMCiB), Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain","Experimental Tuberculosis Unit, Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Universitat Aut\u00f2noma de Barcelona, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5623-7873","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210099160"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Comparative Medicine and Bioimage Centre of Catalonia (CMCiB), Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210137002"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Experimental Tuberculosis Unit, Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Universitat Aut\u00f2noma de Barcelona, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210137002","https://openalex.org/I123044942"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033745823","display_name":"Clara Prats","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1398-7559"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210137002","display_name":"Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol","ror":"https://ror.org/03bzdww12","country_code":"ES","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210137002","https://openalex.org/I4387153040"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9617848","display_name":"Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/03mb6wj31","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Clara Prats","raw_affiliation_strings":["Comparative Medicine and Bioimage Centre of Catalonia (CMCiB), Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain","Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1398-7559","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Comparative Medicine and Bioimage Centre of Catalonia (CMCiB), Fundaci\u00f3 Institut d'Investigaci\u00f3 en Ci\u00e8ncies de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210137002"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5068363272"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9617848"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":1.2607,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":45,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8589677,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"16","issue":"12","first_page":"e1008431","last_page":"e1008431"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.9865999817848206,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.9146999716758728,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gompertz-function","display_name":"Gompertz function","score":0.8008074760437012},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.730589747428894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/term","display_name":"Term (time)","score":0.6840308904647827},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/surprise","display_name":"Surprise","score":0.6739125847816467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.6202669739723206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2019-20-coronavirus-outbreak","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","score":0.4352288544178009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3772431015968323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3544328510761261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.3169945776462555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.24911153316497803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.2365500032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/physics","display_name":"Physics","score":0.11955124139785767},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.10149240493774414},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.08856776356697083}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134463574","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1011785","display_name":"Gompertz function","level":2,"score":0.8008074760437012},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.730589747428894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.6840308904647827},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780343955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333173","display_name":"Surprise","level":2,"score":0.6739125847816467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6202669739723206},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.4352288544178009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3772431015968323},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3544328510761261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.3169945776462555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.24911153316497803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.2365500032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.11955124139785767},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.10149240493774414},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.08856776356697083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005060","descriptor_name":"Europe","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005060","descriptor_name":"Europe","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005060","descriptor_name":"Europe","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005060","descriptor_name":"Europe","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011634","descriptor_name":"Public Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011634","descriptor_name":"Public Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011634","descriptor_name":"Public Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011634","descriptor_name":"Public Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:33296373","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33296373","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:ddd.uab.cat:244137","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://ddd.uab.cat/record/244137","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400380","display_name":"Dip\u00f2sit Digital de Documents de la UAB (Universitat Aut\u00f2noma de Barcelona)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I123044942","host_organization_name":"Universitat Aut\u00f2noma de Barcelona","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I123044942"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:0d08acf82be949bcb9fa5781881ad7b7","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/0d08acf82be949bcb9fa5781881ad7b7","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 16, Iss 12, p e1008431 (2020)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7725384","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7725384","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/341579","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2117/341579","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210207057","display_name":"QRU Quaderns de Recerca en Urbanisme","issn_l":"2014-9689","issn":["2014-9689","2385-6777"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310322448","host_organization_name":"Q71272178","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310322448"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Q71272178"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.550000011920929,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1032159399","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"LCF/PR/GN17/50300003","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312058","funder_display_name":"\u201cla Caixa\u201d Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1255325603","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"100010434","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1414461396","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2017-SGR-500","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334830","funder_display_name":"Ag\u00e8ncia de Gesti\u00f3 d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4993383890","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"100010434","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312058","funder_display_name":"\u201cla Caixa\u201d Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G577722875","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PGC2018-095456-B-I00","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335322","funder_display_name":"European Regional Development Fund"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6757293247","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"LC-01485746","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334788","funder_display_name":"Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7731791180","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ID 100010434","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","funder_display_name":"European Commission"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8326656882","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"PGC2018-095456-B-I00","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315062","funder_display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci\u00f3n y Universidades"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8501810922","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ID 100010434","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312058","funder_display_name":"\u201cla Caixa\u201d Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320312058","display_name":"\u201cla Caixa\u201d Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/03zhx9h04"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315062","display_name":"Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci\u00f3n y Universidades","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","display_name":"European Commission","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334788","display_name":"Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/00w9hey63"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334830","display_name":"Ag\u00e8ncia de Gesti\u00f3 d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca","ror":"https://ror.org/01n4pqe45"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335322","display_name":"European Regional Development Fund","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3110800957.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3110800957.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":33,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W154646596","https://openalex.org/W1606697907","https://openalex.org/W1792367798","https://openalex.org/W1851617358","https://openalex.org/W1965576617","https://openalex.org/W2096145431","https://openalex.org/W2106418531","https://openalex.org/W2123669082","https://openalex.org/W2132504853","https://openalex.org/W2138904898","https://openalex.org/W2147166346","https://openalex.org/W2162554556","https://openalex.org/W2551299342","https://openalex.org/W2581622373","https://openalex.org/W2750398991","https://openalex.org/W2885629070","https://openalex.org/W2902463792","https://openalex.org/W2944866126","https://openalex.org/W2964299980","https://openalex.org/W3001118548","https://openalex.org/W3006028741","https://openalex.org/W3008629533","https://openalex.org/W3013360115","https://openalex.org/W3013649595","https://openalex.org/W3022922549","https://openalex.org/W3024883959","https://openalex.org/W3031293910","https://openalex.org/W3036959836","https://openalex.org/W3037722606","https://openalex.org/W3040433962","https://openalex.org/W3103645382","https://openalex.org/W3118845514","https://openalex.org/W6732773775"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4236382845","https://openalex.org/W152192128","https://openalex.org/W193081795","https://openalex.org/W1987826597","https://openalex.org/W4388712630","https://openalex.org/W2481168998","https://openalex.org/W2358924152","https://openalex.org/W2321147632","https://openalex.org/W2476994687","https://openalex.org/W642988558"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,133],"appearance":[1],"and":[2,19,47,97,102,156,178],"fast":[3],"spreading":[4,95,129],"of":[5,39,65,82,115,140,152,164],"Covid-19":[6,94,116,154],"took":[7],"the":[8,27,37,44,63,80,93,112,141,149,153,165],"international":[9],"community":[10],"by":[11,73],"surprise.":[12],"Collaboration":[13],"between":[14],"researchers,":[15],"public":[16],"health":[17],"workers,":[18],"politicians":[20],"has":[21,57,107],"been":[22,58,108],"established":[23],"to":[24,60,90,110,160,174],"deal":[25],"with":[26],"epidemic.":[28],"One":[29],"important":[30],"contribution":[31],"from":[32,117],"researchers":[33,159],"in":[34,76,128,144,148],"epidemiology":[35],"is":[36,71],"analysis":[38],"trends":[40,50],"so":[41],"that":[42,123,146],"both":[43],"current":[45],"state":[46],"short-term":[48,100,142,176],"future":[49],"can":[51,170],"be":[52,172],"carefully":[53],"evaluated.":[54],"Gompertz":[55],"model":[56,106,134],"shown":[59],"correctly":[61],"describe":[62],"dynamics":[64],"cumulative":[66,113],"confirmed":[67],"cases,":[68],"since":[69],"it":[70,86,98],"characterized":[72],"a":[74,88,137],"decrease":[75],"growth":[77],"rate":[78],"showing":[79],"effect":[81],"control":[83],"measures.":[84],"Thus,":[85],"provides":[87],"way":[89],"systematically":[91],"quantify":[92],"velocity":[96,130],"allows":[99],"predictions":[101,135,169],"longer-term":[103],"estimations.":[104],"This":[105],"employed":[109],"fit":[111],"cases":[114],"several":[118],"European":[119],"countries.":[120,132],"Results":[121],"show":[122],"there":[124],"are":[125,147],"systematic":[126],"differences":[127],"among":[131],"provide":[136],"reliable":[138],"picture":[139],"evolution":[143],"countries":[145],"initial":[150],"stages":[151],"outbreak,":[155],"may":[157],"permit":[158],"uncover":[161],"some":[162],"characteristics":[163],"long-term":[166],"evolution.":[167],"These":[168],"also":[171],"generalized":[173],"calculate":[175],"hospital":[177],"intensive":[179],"care":[180],"units":[181],"(ICU)":[182],"requirements.":[183]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7}],"updated_date":"2026-01-13T01:12:25.745995","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}