{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3039571446","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","title":"Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices","display_name":"Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-07-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3039571446","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","mag":"3039571446","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32614817"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087646566","display_name":"Joe Hilton","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2787-3827"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I39555362","display_name":"University of Warwick","ror":"https://ror.org/01a77tt86","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Joe Hilton","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086651355","display_name":"Matt J. Keeling","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4639-4765"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I39555362","display_name":"University of Warwick","ror":"https://ror.org/01a77tt86","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matt J. Keeling","raw_affiliation_strings":["Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5087646566"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":4.106,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":130,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95651495,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"16","issue":"7","first_page":"e1008031","last_page":"e1008031"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11987","display_name":"COVID-19 Impact on Reproduction","score":0.9847999811172485,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2729","display_name":"Obstetrics and Gynecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12943","display_name":"COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing","score":0.9664000272750854,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/asymptomatic","display_name":"Asymptomatic","score":0.7342447638511658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transmission","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","score":0.7323049306869507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/basic-reproduction-number","display_name":"Basic reproduction number","score":0.6995559334754944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak","display_name":"Outbreak","score":0.6211859583854675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.6126605272293091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.5014593601226807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demography","display_name":"Demography","score":0.47031015157699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.4574448764324188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/estimation","display_name":"Estimation","score":0.4181009531021118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.37180107831954956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.36679351329803467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.3201521337032318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-health","display_name":"Environmental health","score":0.3024548590183258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.291813462972641},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.14756643772125244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.13454964756965637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/internal-medicine","display_name":"Internal medicine","score":0.12639060616493225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/telecommunications","display_name":"Telecommunications","score":0.08859780430793762},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.08605489134788513}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777910003","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1707292","display_name":"Asymptomatic","level":2,"score":0.7342447638511658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.7323049306869507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204264503","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q901464","display_name":"Basic reproduction number","level":3,"score":0.6995559334754944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.6211859583854675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.6126605272293091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5014593601226807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.47031015157699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.4574448764324188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.4181009531021118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.37180107831954956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.36679351329803467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3201521337032318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.3024548590183258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.291813462972641},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.14756643772125244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.13454964756965637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.12639060616493225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.08859780430793762},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.08605489134788513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201995342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682496","display_name":"Systems engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000073640","descriptor_name":"Betacoronavirus","qualifier_ui":"Q000302","qualifier_name":"isolation & purification","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000073640","descriptor_name":"Betacoronavirus","qualifier_ui":"Q000302","qualifier_name":"isolation & purification","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000073640","descriptor_name":"Betacoronavirus","qualifier_ui":"Q000302","qualifier_name":"isolation & purification","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000073640","descriptor_name":"Betacoronavirus","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000073640","descriptor_name":"Betacoronavirus","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000073640","descriptor_name":"Betacoronavirus","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086402","descriptor_name":"SARS-CoV-2","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000367","descriptor_name":"Age Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000367","descriptor_name":"Age Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000367","descriptor_name":"Age Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002681","descriptor_name":"China","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002681","descriptor_name":"China","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002681","descriptor_name":"China","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011024","descriptor_name":"Pneumonia, Viral","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011024","descriptor_name":"Pneumonia, Viral","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011024","descriptor_name":"Pneumonia, Viral","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011024","descriptor_name":"Pneumonia, Viral","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011024","descriptor_name":"Pneumonia, Viral","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011024","descriptor_name":"Pneumonia, Viral","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014779","descriptor_name":"Virus Replication","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014779","descriptor_name":"Virus Replication","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014779","descriptor_name":"Virus Replication","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D016358","descriptor_name":"Contact Tracing","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016358","descriptor_name":"Contact Tracing","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016358","descriptor_name":"Contact Tracing","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018352","descriptor_name":"Coronavirus Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018352","descriptor_name":"Coronavirus Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018352","descriptor_name":"Coronavirus Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018352","descriptor_name":"Coronavirus Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018352","descriptor_name":"Coronavirus Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018352","descriptor_name":"Coronavirus Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019295","descriptor_name":"Computational Biology","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058345","descriptor_name":"Asymptomatic Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058345","descriptor_name":"Asymptomatic Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058345","descriptor_name":"Asymptomatic Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000517","qualifier_name":"prevention & control","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":7,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:32614817","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32614817","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:wrap.warwick.ac.uk:141180","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400665","display_name":"Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I39555362","host_organization_name":"University of Warwick","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39555362"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1008031","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:fa5d6fc28a1b4d7c95f6d73a49c8b92a","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/fa5d6fc28a1b4d7c95f6d73a49c8b92a","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e1008031 (2020)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6422741","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6422741","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196269","display_name":"PUBLISSO (German National Library of Medicine)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210112663","host_organization_name":"ZB MED - Information Centre for Life Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210112663"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, 16(7):e1008031","raw_type":"Zeitschriftenartikel"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7363110","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7363110","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.8100000023841858}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2026327645","display_name":"EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Mathematics for Real-World Systems II","funder_award_id":"EP/S022244/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5177373253","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"17/63/82","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319990","funder_display_name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314707","display_name":"Government of the United Kingdom","ror":"https://ror.org/05wnh3t63"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319990","display_name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research","ror":"https://ror.org/0187kwz08"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/0439y7842"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3039571446.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3039571446.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":41,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1232402664","https://openalex.org/W1606697907","https://openalex.org/W1996482566","https://openalex.org/W2009642254","https://openalex.org/W2041572706","https://openalex.org/W2079779136","https://openalex.org/W2085273941","https://openalex.org/W2094524658","https://openalex.org/W2099759919","https://openalex.org/W2103977882","https://openalex.org/W2123499070","https://openalex.org/W2141012778","https://openalex.org/W2152906514","https://openalex.org/W2156158169","https://openalex.org/W2159301256","https://openalex.org/W2166022262","https://openalex.org/W2170446467","https://openalex.org/W2585687277","https://openalex.org/W2755849266","https://openalex.org/W3002764620","https://openalex.org/W3003573988","https://openalex.org/W3003668884","https://openalex.org/W3004313240","https://openalex.org/W3005529452","https://openalex.org/W3006007867","https://openalex.org/W3008208420","https://openalex.org/W3008294222","https://openalex.org/W3008818676","https://openalex.org/W3009155494","https://openalex.org/W3009265184","https://openalex.org/W3009468976","https://openalex.org/W3011046120","https://openalex.org/W3012789146","https://openalex.org/W3013444644","https://openalex.org/W3020184843","https://openalex.org/W3035011439","https://openalex.org/W3121205060","https://openalex.org/W3125425378","https://openalex.org/W3165423827","https://openalex.org/W6789902502","https://openalex.org/W6979026940"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2373635223","https://openalex.org/W2412355096","https://openalex.org/W1990012352","https://openalex.org/W2431766951","https://openalex.org/W4385969441","https://openalex.org/W127458931","https://openalex.org/W2362266265","https://openalex.org/W2557977292","https://openalex.org/W2097753790","https://openalex.org/W2049776456"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,42],"2019-2020":[1],"pandemic":[2],"of":[3,23,53,58,92,112,154,179,216,228,252,262],"atypical":[4],"pneumonia":[5],"(COVID-19)":[6],"caused":[7],"by":[8,49,213],"the":[9,17,29,51,56,63,107,163,177,188,199,214,225,232,243,250,260,268],"virus":[10],"SARS-CoV-2":[11],"has":[12,16],"spread":[13,261,271],"globally":[14],"and":[15,55,75,95,123,196,198,205,224,279],"potential":[18],"to":[19,105,139,176,218,240,259,270,286,289],"infect":[20],"large":[21],"numbers":[22],"people":[24],"in":[25,39,221,231,274,293],"every":[26],"country.":[27,169],"Estimating":[28],"country-specific":[30,108,155],"basic":[31,43,109,164],"reproductive":[32,44,110,165],"ratio":[33,45,111,166,215],"is":[34,47,68,173,210,245],"a":[35,81,124,152],"vital":[36],"first":[37],"step":[38],"public-health":[40],"planning.":[41],"(R0)":[46],"determined":[48],"both":[50],"nature":[52],"pathogen":[54],"network":[57],"human":[59],"contacts":[60],"through":[61],"which":[62,67,102,134,144,159],"disease":[64],"can":[65,135,161],"spread,":[66],"itself":[69],"dependent":[70],"on":[71],"population":[72],"age":[73],"structure":[74,133,258],"household":[76],"composition.":[77],"Here":[78],"we":[79,103,128,160],"introduce":[80],"transmission":[82,96,132,156,180,187,239],"model":[83],"combining":[84],"age-stratified":[85,131],"contact":[86,126,146,257],"frequencies":[87],"with":[88,184,276],"age-dependent":[89],"susceptibility,":[90],"probability":[91],"clinical":[93,229],"symptoms,":[94],"from":[97,121,158,181],"asymptomatic":[98,182,186,235],"(or":[99],"mild)":[100],"cases,":[101,242],"use":[104],"estimate":[106,129],"COVID-19":[113,267],"for":[114,143,167],"152":[115],"countries.":[116,295],"Using":[117],"early":[118],"outbreak":[119],"data":[120],"China":[122],"synthetic":[125,145],"matrix,":[127],"an":[130],"then":[136],"be":[137,287],"extrapolated":[138],"151":[140],"other":[141],"countries":[142,275],"matrices":[147],"also":[148],"exist.":[149],"This":[150,208],"defines":[151],"set":[153],"structures":[157],"calculate":[162],"each":[168,222],"Our":[170,247],"predicted":[171,192],"R0":[172],"critically":[174],"sensitive":[175],"intensity":[178],"cases;":[183],"low":[185],"highest":[189],"values":[190],"are":[191,284],"across":[193,201],"Eastern":[194],"Europe":[195],"Japan":[197],"lowest":[200],"Africa,":[202],"Central":[203],"America":[204],"South-Western":[206],"Asia.":[207],"pattern":[209,244],"largely":[211],"driven":[212],"children":[217],"older":[219,277],"adults":[220],"country":[223],"observed":[226],"propensity":[227],"cases":[230,236],"elderly.":[233],"If":[234],"have":[237],"comparable":[238],"detected":[241],"reversed.":[246],"results":[248],"demonstrate":[249],"importance":[251],"age-specific":[253],"heterogeneities":[254,265],"going":[255],"beyond":[256],"COVID-19.":[263],"These":[264],"give":[266],"capacity":[269],"particularly":[272],"quickly":[273],"populations,":[278],"that":[280],"intensive":[281],"control":[282],"measures":[283],"likely":[285],"necessary":[288],"impede":[290],"its":[291],"progress":[292],"these":[294]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":28},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":65},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":13}],"updated_date":"2026-03-06T13:50:29.536080","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}