{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3037833606","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","title":"Forecasting unprecedented ecological fluctuations","display_name":"Forecasting unprecedented ecological fluctuations","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-06-29","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3037833606","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","mag":"3037833606","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32598364"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053800499","display_name":"Samuel R. Bray","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9696-6920"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Samuel R. Bray","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9696-6920","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100408024","display_name":"Bo Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8880-1432"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Bo Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8880-1432","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5053800499","https://openalex.org/A5100408024"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":1.1312,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.78924445,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"16","issue":"6","first_page":"e1008021","last_page":"e1008021"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.9975000023841858,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.9975000023841858,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10487","display_name":"Plant and animal studies","score":0.9887999892234802,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11764","display_name":"Evolution and Genetic Dynamics","score":0.984000027179718,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1311","display_name":"Genetics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/13","display_name":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spurious-relationship","display_name":"Spurious relationship","score":0.7356442213058472},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecosystem","display_name":"Ecosystem","score":0.6123603582382202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecology","display_name":"Ecology","score":0.5828947424888611},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extrapolation","display_name":"Extrapolation","score":0.5404873490333557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/abundance","display_name":"Abundance (ecology)","score":0.46946918964385986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/marine-ecosystem","display_name":"Marine ecosystem","score":0.4598134458065033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroecology","display_name":"Macroecology","score":0.4434281289577484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biome","display_name":"Biome","score":0.41723138093948364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-science","display_name":"Environmental science","score":0.4001723527908325},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3232382535934448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biodiversity","display_name":"Biodiversity","score":0.24203360080718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.17572185397148132},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biology","display_name":"Biology","score":0.14730271697044373},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.11981293559074402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.09084755182266235}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97256817","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1462316","display_name":"Spurious relationship","level":2,"score":0.7356442213058472},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110872660","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37813","display_name":"Ecosystem","level":2,"score":0.6123603582382202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.5828947424888611},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132459708","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q744069","display_name":"Extrapolation","level":2,"score":0.5404873490333557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77077793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q336019","display_name":"Abundance (ecology)","level":2,"score":0.46946918964385986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151152651","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3304561","display_name":"Marine ecosystem","level":3,"score":0.4598134458065033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152491559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1886501","display_name":"Macroecology","level":3,"score":0.4434281289577484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89920630","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101998","display_name":"Biome","level":3,"score":0.41723138093948364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.4001723527908325},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3232382535934448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C130217890","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47041","display_name":"Biodiversity","level":2,"score":0.24203360080718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.17572185397148132},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.14730271697044373},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.11981293559074402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.09084755182266235}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D004463","descriptor_name":"Ecology","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004463","descriptor_name":"Ecology","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004463","descriptor_name":"Ecology","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D017753","descriptor_name":"Ecosystem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D017753","descriptor_name":"Ecosystem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D017753","descriptor_name":"Ecosystem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D057231","descriptor_name":"Climate Change","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D057231","descriptor_name":"Climate Change","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D057231","descriptor_name":"Climate Change","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:32598364","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32598364","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1008021","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:03c5f903e76f46059249f2e57e2c839e","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/03c5f903e76f46059249f2e57e2c839e","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e1008021 (2020)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7375592","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7375592","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Comput Biol","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008021&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Life below water","score":0.8399999737739563,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8405231780","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"T32GM007276","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8551628717","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"94819","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320882","funder_display_name":"Volkswagen Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306133","display_name":"Burroughs Wellcome Fund","ror":"https://ror.org/01d35cw23"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310357","display_name":"Arnold and Mabel Beckman Initiative for Macular Research","ror":"https://ror.org/05avmtm72"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320882","display_name":"Volkswagen Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/03bsmfz84"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","display_name":"National Institutes of Health","ror":"https://ror.org/01cwqze88"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3037833606.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3037833606.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":45,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W575080533","https://openalex.org/W1498759836","https://openalex.org/W1530183292","https://openalex.org/W1595124364","https://openalex.org/W1610884726","https://openalex.org/W1979719303","https://openalex.org/W1991254391","https://openalex.org/W1998367480","https://openalex.org/W2005940941","https://openalex.org/W2017147656","https://openalex.org/W2017731476","https://openalex.org/W2022794404","https://openalex.org/W2029697313","https://openalex.org/W2036682095","https://openalex.org/W2049546703","https://openalex.org/W2067056910","https://openalex.org/W2078521875","https://openalex.org/W2101981967","https://openalex.org/W2109503531","https://openalex.org/W2118136026","https://openalex.org/W2122955344","https://openalex.org/W2138821388","https://openalex.org/W2157658472","https://openalex.org/W2163541402","https://openalex.org/W2170486501","https://openalex.org/W2508832261","https://openalex.org/W2565621830","https://openalex.org/W2594325430","https://openalex.org/W2605897995","https://openalex.org/W2762696470","https://openalex.org/W2770096046","https://openalex.org/W2775241190","https://openalex.org/W2786117583","https://openalex.org/W2786247704","https://openalex.org/W2786425804","https://openalex.org/W2787154907","https://openalex.org/W2892348326","https://openalex.org/W2950621607","https://openalex.org/W2952679296","https://openalex.org/W2952758388","https://openalex.org/W2954844822","https://openalex.org/W3037148409","https://openalex.org/W3102196141","https://openalex.org/W3103644689","https://openalex.org/W4285719527"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2586774764","https://openalex.org/W3113091479","https://openalex.org/W941090075","https://openalex.org/W2162899405","https://openalex.org/W2740743208","https://openalex.org/W3152287990","https://openalex.org/W2044987316","https://openalex.org/W4310016817","https://openalex.org/W2237480245","https://openalex.org/W3134374554"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasting":[0],"'Black":[1],"Swan'":[2],"events":[3,54,119],"in":[4,17,24,43,92,112,126],"ecosystems":[5,13,79],"is":[6],"an":[7],"important":[8],"but":[9],"challenging":[10],"task.":[11],"Many":[12],"display":[14],"aperiodic":[15],"fluctuations":[16],"species":[18,97],"abundance":[19],"spanning":[20],"orders":[21],"of":[22,52,59,96,123],"magnitude":[23],"scale,":[25],"which":[26],"have":[27],"vast":[28],"environmental":[29],"and":[30,35,77,84,87,115],"economic":[31],"impact.":[32],"Empirical":[33],"evidence":[34],"theoretical":[36],"analyses":[37],"suggest":[38],"that":[39],"these":[40,105],"dynamics":[41],"are":[42],"a":[44,102],"regime":[45],"where":[46],"system":[47],"nonlinearities":[48],"limit":[49],"accurate":[50],"forecasting":[51,114],"unprecedented":[53],"due":[55],"to":[56,62,108],"poor":[57],"extrapolation":[58],"historical":[60,124],"data":[61,110],"unsampled":[63],"states.":[64],"Leveraging":[65],"increasingly":[66],"available":[67],"long-term":[68],"high-frequency":[69],"ecological":[70,113],"tracking":[71],"data,":[72],"we":[73],"analyze":[74],"multiple":[75],"natural":[76],"experimental":[78],"(marine":[80],"plankton,":[81],"intertidal":[82],"mollusks,":[83],"deciduous":[85],"forest),":[86],"recover":[88],"hidden":[89],"linearity":[90],"embedded":[91],"universal":[93],"'scaling":[94],"laws'":[95],"dynamics.":[98],"We":[99],"then":[100],"develop":[101],"method":[103],"using":[104],"scaling":[106],"laws":[107],"reduce":[109],"dependence":[111],"accurately":[116],"predict":[117],"extreme":[118],"beyond":[120],"the":[121],"span":[122],"observations":[125],"diverse":[127],"ecosystems.":[128]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-01-13T01:12:25.745995","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
