{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2593085308","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","title":"A human judgment approach to epidemiological forecasting","display_name":"A human judgment approach to epidemiological forecasting","publication_year":2017,"publication_date":"2017-03-10","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2593085308","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","mag":"2593085308","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28282375"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078364220","display_name":"David Farrow","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5798-1215"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74973139","display_name":"Carnegie Mellon University","ror":"https://ror.org/05x2bcf33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David C. Farrow","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002493473","display_name":"Logan Brooks","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0877-4978"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74973139","display_name":"Carnegie Mellon University","ror":"https://ror.org/05x2bcf33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Logan C. Brooks","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045525095","display_name":"Sangwon Hyun","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0377-897X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74973139","display_name":"Carnegie Mellon University","ror":"https://ror.org/05x2bcf33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sangwon Hyun","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5076708141","display_name":"Ryan J. Tibshirani","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2158-8304"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74973139","display_name":"Carnegie Mellon University","ror":"https://ror.org/05x2bcf33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ryan J. Tibshirani","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112420205","display_name":"Donald S. Burke","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","display_name":"University of Pittsburgh","ror":"https://ror.org/01an3r305","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Donald S. Burke","raw_affiliation_strings":["Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040906638","display_name":"Roni Rosenfeld","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3274-5862"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74973139","display_name":"Carnegie Mellon University","ror":"https://ror.org/05x2bcf33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Roni Rosenfeld","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5040906638"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":5.4605,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":71,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96145085,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"3","first_page":"e1005248","last_page":"e1005248"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9983000159263611,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9983000159263611,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.9977999925613403,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11581","display_name":"Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research","score":0.9832000136375427,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.6307241916656494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.60394686460495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variety","display_name":"Variety (cybernetics)","score":0.5278603434562683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/big-data","display_name":"Big data","score":0.4672747850418091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","score":0.4407595694065094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.4209449887275696},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/government","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","score":0.41462868452072144},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.3531303405761719},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/management-science","display_name":"Management science","score":0.3264007866382599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.20111390948295593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.19499611854553223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.13947689533233643},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.12942174077033997}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.6307241916656494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.60394686460495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136197465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1729295","display_name":"Variety (cybernetics)","level":2,"score":0.5278603434562683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75684735","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q858810","display_name":"Big data","level":2,"score":0.4672747850418091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.4407595694065094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.4209449887275696},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.41462868452072144},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3531303405761719},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.3264007866382599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.20111390948295593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.19499611854553223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.13947689533233643},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.12942174077033997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D003141","descriptor_name":"Communicable Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003141","descriptor_name":"Communicable Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003141","descriptor_name":"Communicable Diseases","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004812","descriptor_name":"Epidemiologic Methods","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D004812","descriptor_name":"Epidemiologic Methods","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D004812","descriptor_name":"Epidemiologic Methods","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014481","descriptor_name":"United States","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014481","descriptor_name":"United States","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014481","descriptor_name":"United States","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015995","descriptor_name":"Prevalence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015995","descriptor_name":"Prevalence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015995","descriptor_name":"Prevalence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":8,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:28282375","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28282375","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:ark:/13030/qt9wk6k3ft","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1005248","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:38f1b4eb40ea4afa8183ca595acc8661","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/38f1b4eb40ea4afa8183ca595acc8661","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 13, Iss 3, p e1005248 (2017)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9wk6k3ft","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9wk6k3ft","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology, vol 13, iss 3","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:4219042","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/5345757","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/4743826","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/A_human_judgment_approach_to_epidemiological_forecasting/4743826","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Dataset"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7900000214576721,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2180245026","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"1252522","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G255524836","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"DGE-1252522","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4393124834","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"U54 GM088491","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337354","funder_display_name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6894402473","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Fellowship","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G848032724","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Science","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","display_name":"National Institutes of Health","ror":"https://ror.org/01cwqze88"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332162","display_name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","ror":"https://ror.org/042twtr12"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332180","display_name":"Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02caytj08"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337354","display_name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04q48ey07"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":36,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W83303476","https://openalex.org/W599336376","https://openalex.org/W1483439930","https://openalex.org/W1534477342","https://openalex.org/W1594501461","https://openalex.org/W1650635506","https://openalex.org/W1851728784","https://openalex.org/W1970729574","https://openalex.org/W2007367842","https://openalex.org/W2038128936","https://openalex.org/W2049229003","https://openalex.org/W2092009189","https://openalex.org/W2093413494","https://openalex.org/W2112946723","https://openalex.org/W2115830594","https://openalex.org/W2124776405","https://openalex.org/W2140136587","https://openalex.org/W2142328903","https://openalex.org/W2143654742","https://openalex.org/W2150657679","https://openalex.org/W2168729696","https://openalex.org/W2169853500","https://openalex.org/W2223235514","https://openalex.org/W2407292501","https://openalex.org/W2486241280","https://openalex.org/W2752099845","https://openalex.org/W2798646345","https://openalex.org/W3121257585","https://openalex.org/W3125633690","https://openalex.org/W4214550829","https://openalex.org/W4239966440","https://openalex.org/W4300973708","https://openalex.org/W6603385601","https://openalex.org/W6618204492","https://openalex.org/W6678851513","https://openalex.org/W6743716967"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4247566972","https://openalex.org/W2960264696","https://openalex.org/W3090563135","https://openalex.org/W2497432351","https://openalex.org/W4206777497","https://openalex.org/W2910064364","https://openalex.org/W4255224757","https://openalex.org/W2499527417","https://openalex.org/W2032233321","https://openalex.org/W2008127713"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Infectious":[0],"diseases":[1],"impose":[2],"considerable":[3],"burden":[4],"on":[5,130],"society,":[6],"despite":[7],"significant":[8],"advances":[9],"in":[10,23,43,47,55,148,244],"technology":[11],"and":[12,25,54,72,96,116,143,153,166,197,214,248,253],"medicine":[13],"over":[14],"the":[15,45,48,52,56,59,77,89,100,136,180,202,212,224,251],"past":[16],"century.":[17],"Advanced":[18],"warning":[19],"can":[20],"be":[21],"helpful":[22],"mitigating":[24],"preparing":[26],"for":[27,39,99,119,201,233],"an":[28,94],"impending":[29],"or":[30],"ongoing":[31],"epidemic.":[32],"Historically,":[33],"such":[34],"a":[35,126,185],"capability":[36],"has":[37,111],"lagged":[38],"many":[40],"reasons,":[41],"including":[42],"particular":[44],"uncertainty":[46],"current":[49],"state":[50],"of":[51,58,79,102,108,187,211,255],"system":[53,140],"understanding":[57],"processes":[60],"that":[61,75,206,238],"drive":[62],"epidemic":[63,145],"trajectories.":[64,199],"Presently":[65],"we":[66,124,157,182,204,249],"have":[67,92],"access":[68],"to":[69,113,172,194],"data,":[70],"models,":[71],"computational":[73,117],"resources":[74],"enable":[76],"development":[78,101],"epidemiological":[80,120],"forecasting":[81,139],"systems.":[82],"Indeed,":[83],"several":[84,229],"recent":[85],"challenges":[86,110],"hosted":[87],"by":[88,150,184,228],"U.S.":[90,216],"government":[91],"fostered":[93],"open":[95],"collaborative":[97],"environment":[98],"these":[103,109,155,169],"technologies.":[104],"The":[105],"primary":[106],"focus":[107],"been":[112],"develop":[114],"statistical":[115,230],"methods":[118],"forecasting,":[121],"but":[122],"here":[123],"consider":[125],"serious":[127],"alternative":[128],"based":[129],"collective":[131,245],"human":[132,151,164,209,246],"judgment.":[133],"We":[134,236],"created":[135],"web-based":[137],"\"Epicast\"":[138],"which":[141],"collects":[142],"aggregates":[144],"predictions":[146,210,226],"made":[147,227],"real-time":[149],"participants,":[152],"with":[154],"forecasts":[156,170],"ask":[158],"two":[159],"questions:":[160],"how":[161,167,189],"accurate":[162,222],"is":[163,240],"judgment,":[165,247],"do":[168],"compare":[171],"their":[173],"more":[174,221],"computational,":[175],"data-driven":[176],"alternatives?":[177],"To":[178],"address":[179],"former,":[181],"assess":[183],"variety":[186],"metrics":[188],"accurately":[190],"humans":[191],"are":[192,219],"able":[193],"predict":[195],"influenza":[196],"chikungunya":[198],"As":[200],"latter,":[203],"show":[205],"real-time,":[207],"combined":[208],"2014-2015":[213],"2015-2016":[215],"flu":[217],"seasons":[218],"often":[220],"than":[223],"same":[225],"systems,":[231],"especially":[232],"short-term":[234],"targets.":[235],"conclude":[237],"there":[239],"valuable":[241],"predictive":[242],"power":[243],"discuss":[250],"benefits":[252],"drawbacks":[254],"this":[256],"approach.":[257]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-04-10T15:06:20.359241","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
