{"id":"https://openalex.org/W981005187","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","title":"Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong","display_name":"Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-07-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W981005187","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","mag":"981005187","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26226185"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061502421","display_name":"Wan Yang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7555-9728"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Wan Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074151633","display_name":"Benjamin J. Cowling","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6297-7154"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I889458895","display_name":"University of Hong Kong","ror":"https://ror.org/02zhqgq86","country_code":"HK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I889458895"]}],"countries":["HK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Benjamin J. Cowling","raw_affiliation_strings":["WHO Collaborating Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"WHO Collaborating Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I889458895"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068660339","display_name":"Eric H. Y. Lau","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6688-9637"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I889458895","display_name":"University of Hong Kong","ror":"https://ror.org/02zhqgq86","country_code":"HK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I889458895"]}],"countries":["HK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eric H. Y. Lau","raw_affiliation_strings":["WHO Collaborating Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"WHO Collaborating Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I889458895"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006605951","display_name":"Jeffrey Shaman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7216-7809"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jeffrey Shaman","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5061502421"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":6.5128,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":132,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97225325,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":98,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"11","issue":"7","first_page":"e1004383","last_page":"e1004383"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10167","display_name":"Influenza Virus Research Studies","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10167","display_name":"Influenza Virus Research Studies","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9934999942779541,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9861999750137329,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subtropics","display_name":"Subtropics","score":0.6205308437347412},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.609826922416687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/magnitude","display_name":"Magnitude (astronomy)","score":0.571122944355011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-influenza","display_name":"Seasonal influenza","score":0.5700836181640625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.5080118179321289},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meteorology","display_name":"Meteorology","score":0.46482613682746887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/influenza-a-virus","display_name":"Influenza A virus","score":0.4365800619125366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-science","display_name":"Environmental science","score":0.40430715680122375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climatology","display_name":"Climatology","score":0.4016057550907135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3352016508579254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.31644541025161743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.2958778142929077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biology","display_name":"Biology","score":0.2554242014884949},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.222628653049469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.1522829830646515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.15117397904396057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virus","display_name":"Virus","score":0.13662099838256836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecology","display_name":"Ecology","score":0.1139000952243805},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.10705804824829102},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/internal-medicine","display_name":"Internal medicine","score":0.09496888518333435}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14168384","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16305538","display_name":"Subtropics","level":2,"score":0.6205308437347412},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.609826922416687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126691448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2028919","display_name":"Magnitude (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.571122944355011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018751465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4120645","display_name":"Seasonal influenza","level":5,"score":0.5700836181640625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.5080118179321289},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.46482613682746887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777546802","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q834390","display_name":"Influenza A virus","level":3,"score":0.4365800619125366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.40430715680122375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.4016057550907135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3352016508579254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.31644541025161743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.2958778142929077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.2554242014884949},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.222628653049469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.1522829830646515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.15117397904396057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522874641","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q808","display_name":"Virus","level":2,"score":0.13662099838256836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.1139000952243805},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.10705804824829102},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.09496888518333435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1276947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333","display_name":"Astronomy","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006723","descriptor_name":"Hong Kong","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006723","descriptor_name":"Hong Kong","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006723","descriptor_name":"Hong Kong","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007251","descriptor_name":"Influenza, Human","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007251","descriptor_name":"Influenza, Human","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D007251","descriptor_name":"Influenza, Human","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011159","descriptor_name":"Population Surveillance","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011159","descriptor_name":"Population Surveillance","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011159","descriptor_name":"Population Surveillance","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D018570","descriptor_name":"Risk Assessment","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058873","descriptor_name":"Pandemics","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":8,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:26226185","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26226185","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1004383","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:c1cc7a4f01054d4db0a8eaba26a0763e","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/c1cc7a4f01054d4db0a8eaba26a0763e","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e1004383 (2015)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:3505718","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/4520691","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/1498873","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/_Forecasting_Influenza_Epidemics_in_Hong_Kong_/1498873","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Dataset"},{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/24481627","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Forecasting_Influenza_Epidemics_in_Hong_Kong/24481627","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:hub.hku.hk:10722/216033","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10722/216033","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196271","display_name":"The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I889458895","host_organization_name":"University of Hong Kong","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I889458895"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004383&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.8799999952316284,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1380019148","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"ES009089","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2094680684","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"GM110748","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2622390035","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"GM100467","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G490892872","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"GM088558","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306110","display_name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","ror":"https://ror.org/00jyr0d86"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320307768","display_name":"Amylin Pharmaceuticals","ror":"https://ror.org/043cec594"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320307781","display_name":"Sanofi","ror":"https://ror.org/027vj4x92"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","display_name":"National Institutes of Health","ror":"https://ror.org/01cwqze88"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332664","display_name":"Science and Technology Directorate","ror":"https://ror.org/00jyr0d86"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333684","display_name":"Sanofi Pasteur","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335055","display_name":"Health and Medical Research Fund","ror":"https://ror.org/03qh32912"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W981005187.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W981005187.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":29,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1687919521","https://openalex.org/W1970729574","https://openalex.org/W1979279612","https://openalex.org/W1985717369","https://openalex.org/W1995262681","https://openalex.org/W2001250891","https://openalex.org/W2005006106","https://openalex.org/W2005174722","https://openalex.org/W2008280994","https://openalex.org/W2051066849","https://openalex.org/W2052385416","https://openalex.org/W2055300911","https://openalex.org/W2068280229","https://openalex.org/W2079884780","https://openalex.org/W2093258104","https://openalex.org/W2100253428","https://openalex.org/W2111787305","https://openalex.org/W2112205747","https://openalex.org/W2132600099","https://openalex.org/W2140445748","https://openalex.org/W2143469080","https://openalex.org/W2150657679","https://openalex.org/W2152614795","https://openalex.org/W2160077285","https://openalex.org/W2160337655","https://openalex.org/W2167052566","https://openalex.org/W2170834676","https://openalex.org/W2179584279","https://openalex.org/W2941307081"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2376418092","https://openalex.org/W2072983018","https://openalex.org/W1016952678","https://openalex.org/W2257644995","https://openalex.org/W1513444457","https://openalex.org/W4311345787","https://openalex.org/W2188141918","https://openalex.org/W3185336960","https://openalex.org/W2091813869","https://openalex.org/W1979564078"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Recent":[0],"advances":[1],"in":[2,19,22,25,72,89,119,231],"mathematical":[3],"modeling":[4],"and":[5,27,47,113,134,160,166,170,208,235],"inference":[6],"methodologies":[7],"have":[8],"enabled":[9],"development":[10],"of":[11,14,40,147,183],"systems":[12,50,83,104],"capable":[13],"forecasting":[15],"seasonal":[16,128],"influenza":[17,30,41,58,87,125,129,149,212],"epidemics":[18,31,88,118,141],"temperate":[20],"regions":[21],"real-time.":[23],"However,":[24],"subtropical":[26,234],"tropical":[28,236],"regions,":[29],"can":[32,224],"occur":[33],"throughout":[34],"the":[35,62,99,110,181,189],"year,":[36],"making":[37],"routine":[38],"forecast":[39,49,86,103,108,152,186,190],"more":[42,146],"challenging.":[43],"Here":[44],"we":[45],"develop":[46],"report":[48],"that":[51,221],"are":[52],"able":[53,106],"to":[54,84,95,107,199],"predict":[55],"irregular":[56],"non-seasonal":[57],"epidemics,":[59],"using":[60],"either":[61],"ensemble":[63,187],"adjustment":[64],"Kalman":[65],"filter":[66,71],"or":[67,145],"a":[68,75,184],"modified":[69],"particle":[70],"conjunction":[73],"with":[74],"susceptible-infected-recovered":[76],"(SIR)":[77],"model.":[78],"We":[79],"applied":[80],"these":[81,148],"model-filter":[82],"retrospectively":[85],"Hong":[90],"Kong":[91],"from":[92],"January":[93],"1998":[94],"December":[96],"2013,":[97],"including":[98],"2009":[100],"pandemic.":[101],"The":[102],"were":[105,154],"both":[109,157],"peak":[111,114,158,193],"timing":[112,159,194],"magnitude":[115],"for":[116,192,202,206,211,233],"44":[117],"16":[120],"years":[121],"caused":[122,142],"by":[123,143],"individual":[124],"strains":[126],"(i.e.,":[127],"A(H1N1),":[130,132],"pandemic":[131],"A(H3N2),":[133],"B),":[135],"as":[136,138,180],"well":[137],"19":[139],"aggregate":[140],"one":[144],"strains.":[150],"Average":[151],"accuracies":[153],"37%":[155],"(for":[156],"magnitude)":[161,173,196],"at":[162,174,214,227],"1-3":[163,215],"week":[164,216],"leads,":[165],"51%":[167],"(peak":[168,172,195],"timing)":[169],"50%":[171],"0":[175],"lead.":[176],"Forecast":[177],"accuracy":[178,191],"increased":[179,197],"spread":[182],"given":[185],"decreased;":[188],"up":[198],"43%":[200],"(45%)":[201],"H1N1,":[203],"93%":[204],"(89%)":[205],"H3N2,":[207],"53%":[209],"(68%)":[210],"B":[213],"leads.":[217],"These":[218],"findings":[219],"suggest":[220],"accurate":[222],"forecasts":[223],"be":[225],"made":[226],"least":[228],"3":[229],"weeks":[230],"advance":[232],"regions.":[237]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":22},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":19},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":9}],"updated_date":"2026-06-17T08:01:34.144755","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}