{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2032238738","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","title":"A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections","display_name":"A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-04-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2032238738","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","mag":"2032238738","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25927892"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5000106276","display_name":"Tom Lindstr\u00f6m","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7856-2925"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I23923803","display_name":"University of Exeter","ror":"https://ror.org/03yghzc09","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102134673","display_name":"Link\u00f6ping University","ror":"https://ror.org/05ynxx418","country_code":"SE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102134673"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I92446798","display_name":"Colorado State University","ror":"https://ror.org/03k1gpj17","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I92446798"]}],"countries":["GB","SE","US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Tom Lindstr\u00f6m","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Link\u00f6ping University, Link\u00f6ping, Sweden; Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America; US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom","University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom","Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Link\u00f6ping University, Link\u00f6ping, Sweden","Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America","US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Link\u00f6ping University, Link\u00f6ping, Sweden; Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America; US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I23923803"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Link\u00f6ping University, Link\u00f6ping, Sweden","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102134673"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I92446798"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068152561","display_name":"Michael J. Tildesley","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6875-7232"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I142263535","display_name":"University of Nottingham","ror":"https://ror.org/01ee9ar58","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I142263535"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Tildesley","raw_affiliation_strings":["US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America; School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Leicestershire, United Kingdom","US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America","School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Leicestershire, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America; School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Leicestershire, United Kingdom","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Leicestershire, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I142263535"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5105267439","display_name":"Colleen T. Webb","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8450-0990"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I92446798","display_name":"Colorado State University","ror":"https://ror.org/03k1gpj17","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I92446798"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Colleen Webb","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America; US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America","Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America","US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America; US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I92446798"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5000106276"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102134673","https://openalex.org/I23923803","https://openalex.org/I92446798"],"apc_list":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"apc_paid":{"value":2655,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2655},"fwci":11.2754,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":47,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98572519,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"11","issue":"4","first_page":"e1004187","last_page":"e1004187"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11560","display_name":"Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11560","display_name":"Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12047","display_name":"Viral Infections and Vectors","score":0.9954000115394592,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9941999912261963,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sensitivity","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","score":0.632535994052887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.6208596229553223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6205602884292603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/a-priori-and-a-posteriori","display_name":"A priori and a posteriori","score":0.6060067415237427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","score":0.5498391389846802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.5022976398468018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.49773290753364563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/projection","display_name":"Projection (relational algebra)","score":0.4470847249031067},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.43268364667892456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.4083673059940338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.3437170386314392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.33768048882484436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.24400341510772705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/algorithm","display_name":"Algorithm","score":0.21209478378295898}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.632535994052887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.6208596229553223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6205602884292603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75553542","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178161","display_name":"A priori and a posteriori","level":2,"score":0.6060067415237427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.5498391389846802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.5022976398468018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.49773290753364563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57493831","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3134666","display_name":"Projection (relational algebra)","level":2,"score":0.4470847249031067},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.43268364667892456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4083673059940338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3437170386314392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.33768048882484436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.24400341510772705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.21209478378295898},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24326235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q126095","display_name":"Electronic engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000465","descriptor_name":"Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000465","descriptor_name":"Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000465","descriptor_name":"Algorithms","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000818","descriptor_name":"Animals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000818","descriptor_name":"Animals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000818","descriptor_name":"Animals","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D001499","descriptor_name":"Bayes Theorem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003627","descriptor_name":"Data Interpretation, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003627","descriptor_name":"Data Interpretation, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003627","descriptor_name":"Data Interpretation, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005536","descriptor_name":"Foot-and-Mouth Disease","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005536","descriptor_name":"Foot-and-Mouth Disease","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005536","descriptor_name":"Foot-and-Mouth Disease","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006113","descriptor_name":"United Kingdom","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006113","descriptor_name":"United Kingdom","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006113","descriptor_name":"United Kingdom","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011159","descriptor_name":"Population Surveillance","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011159","descriptor_name":"Population Surveillance","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011159","descriptor_name":"Population Surveillance","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012307","descriptor_name":"Risk Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012307","descriptor_name":"Risk Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012307","descriptor_name":"Risk Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012680","descriptor_name":"Sensitivity and Specificity","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015203","descriptor_name":"Reproducibility of Results","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:25927892","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25927892","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:DiVA.org:liu-119264","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-119264","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401559","display_name":"KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1004187","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:b1796a7e40054d4ca540b71ea805647b","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/b1796a7e40054d4ca540b71ea805647b","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 11, Iss 4, p e1004187 (2015)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:3392168","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/4415763","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLOS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.5400000214576721}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","display_name":"National Institutes of Health","ror":"https://ror.org/01cwqze88"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337356","display_name":"Fogarty International Center","ror":"https://ror.org/02xey9a22"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2032238738.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2032238738.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":71,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W76152643","https://openalex.org/W1007704209","https://openalex.org/W1502700877","https://openalex.org/W1545465591","https://openalex.org/W1548396839","https://openalex.org/W1650569836","https://openalex.org/W1748283627","https://openalex.org/W1964326221","https://openalex.org/W1965045549","https://openalex.org/W1968466770","https://openalex.org/W1982306896","https://openalex.org/W1984841045","https://openalex.org/W1987273689","https://openalex.org/W1992126082","https://openalex.org/W1999733221","https://openalex.org/W2000642353","https://openalex.org/W2001726644","https://openalex.org/W2003018405","https://openalex.org/W2004389005","https://openalex.org/W2016628424","https://openalex.org/W2021343752","https://openalex.org/W2021470958","https://openalex.org/W2024099755","https://openalex.org/W2029758788","https://openalex.org/W2030911724","https://openalex.org/W2032583623","https://openalex.org/W2045656233","https://openalex.org/W2050521696","https://openalex.org/W2051288407","https://openalex.org/W2058010333","https://openalex.org/W2059655508","https://openalex.org/W2060981891","https://openalex.org/W2062517669","https://openalex.org/W2065069831","https://openalex.org/W2070944286","https://openalex.org/W2071827932","https://openalex.org/W2079025608","https://openalex.org/W2092832743","https://openalex.org/W2095396557","https://openalex.org/W2095554063","https://openalex.org/W2097025153","https://openalex.org/W2100776472","https://openalex.org/W2100797769","https://openalex.org/W2100956194","https://openalex.org/W2102401757","https://openalex.org/W2114121671","https://openalex.org/W2114736649","https://openalex.org/W2120933360","https://openalex.org/W2132554101","https://openalex.org/W2133396836","https://openalex.org/W2137987110","https://openalex.org/W2140362063","https://openalex.org/W2141011194","https://openalex.org/W2142700050","https://openalex.org/W2143469080","https://openalex.org/W2143707047","https://openalex.org/W2145124315","https://openalex.org/W2147083255","https://openalex.org/W2150836304","https://openalex.org/W2158196600","https://openalex.org/W2158201944","https://openalex.org/W2159120767","https://openalex.org/W2159201744","https://openalex.org/W2163498168","https://openalex.org/W2165848506","https://openalex.org/W2172015886","https://openalex.org/W2175018680","https://openalex.org/W2182735165","https://openalex.org/W2508766570","https://openalex.org/W4232383088","https://openalex.org/W6662203318"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2161543129","https://openalex.org/W2407375987","https://openalex.org/W2505726097","https://openalex.org/W2010643158","https://openalex.org/W3049691116","https://openalex.org/W2106867672","https://openalex.org/W3081214562","https://openalex.org/W4310268968","https://openalex.org/W2950975704","https://openalex.org/W4297815943"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Mathematical":[0],"models":[1,17],"are":[2],"powerful":[3],"tools":[4],"for":[5,56,76,139,204],"epidemiology":[6,50],"and":[7,18,82,86,177],"can":[8,124,160,184],"be":[9,161],"used":[10,36],"to":[11,37,49,97,168],"compare":[12,87],"control":[13,92],"actions.":[14,93],"However,":[15,146],"different":[16,23,69,91,107,174,186],"model":[19,65,74],"parameterizations":[20,70],"may":[21],"provide":[22],"prediction":[24],"of":[25,30,45,71,90,122,133,135,152,182,207],"outcomes.":[26],"In":[27],"other":[28],"fields":[29],"research,":[31],"ensemble":[32,113,205],"modeling":[33,108,175,206],"has":[34,110],"been":[35],"combine":[38],"multiple":[39],"projections.":[40,145,193],"We":[41,59,163,194],"explore":[42],"the":[43,61,72,77,88,99,112,120,130,153,166,180,190,197],"possibility":[44],"applying":[46],"such":[47],"methods":[48],"by":[51,147],"adapting":[52],"Bayesian":[53],"techniques":[54],"developed":[55],"climate":[57],"forecasting.":[58],"exemplify":[60],"implementation":[62],"with":[63,141],"single":[64],"ensembles":[66,140],"based":[67,105],"on":[68,106,111,129,189],"Warwick":[73],"run":[75],"2001":[78],"United":[79],"Kingdom":[80],"foot":[81],"mouth":[83],"disease":[84,208],"outbreak":[85],"efficacy":[89],"This":[94],"allows":[95],"us":[96],"investigate":[98],"effect":[100,128,181],"that":[101,119,157,179,196],"discrepancy":[102,143,191],"among":[103,144,192],"projections":[104],"assumptions":[109,176],"prediction.":[114],"A":[115],"sensitivity":[116,159],"analysis":[117],"showed":[118],"choice":[121],"prior":[123,158],"have":[125,185],"a":[126,149,170,200],"pronounced":[127],"posterior":[131],"estimates":[132],"quantities":[134],"interest,":[136],"in":[137],"particular":[138],"large":[142],"using":[148],"hierarchical":[150],"extension":[151],"method":[154,167,198],"we":[155],"show":[156],"circumvented.":[162],"further":[164],"extend":[165],"include":[169],"priori":[171],"beliefs":[172],"about":[173],"demonstrate":[178],"this":[183],"consequences":[187],"depending":[188],"propose":[195],"is":[199],"promising":[201],"analytical":[202],"tool":[203],"outbreaks.":[209]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-07-02T09:51:11.867554","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}