{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2035254050","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","title":"The Rise and Fall of HIV in High-Prevalence Countries: A Challenge for Mathematical Modeling","display_name":"The Rise and Fall of HIV in High-Prevalence Countries: A Challenge for Mathematical Modeling","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-03-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2035254050","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","mag":"2035254050","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24626088"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459&type=printable","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027221498","display_name":"Nico Nagelkerke","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5505-7923"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I201726411","display_name":"United Arab Emirates University","ror":"https://ror.org/01km6p862","country_code":"AE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201726411"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801952686","display_name":"Erasmus MC","ror":"https://ror.org/018906e22","country_code":"NL","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801952686"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210154249","display_name":"Department of Public Health","ror":"https://ror.org/04hr13565","country_code":"MM","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210112323","https://openalex.org/I4210154249"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I46247651","display_name":"University of Manitoba","ror":"https://ror.org/02gfys938","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I46247651"]}],"countries":["AE","CA","MM","NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nico J. D. Nagelkerke","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada","Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada","Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands","Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210154249"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I46247651"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801952686"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I201726411"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069729871","display_name":"Paul Arora","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6617-3631"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1297363086","display_name":"St. Michael's Hospital","ror":"https://ror.org/04skqfp25","country_code":"CA","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1297363086","https://openalex.org/I4399598460"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I185261750","display_name":"University of Toronto","ror":"https://ror.org/03dbr7087","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I185261750"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Paul Arora","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Global Health Research, St. Michael's Hospital, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Global Health Research, St. Michael's Hospital, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1297363086","https://openalex.org/I185261750"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074819890","display_name":"Prabhat Jha","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7067-8341"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1297363086","display_name":"St. Michael's Hospital","ror":"https://ror.org/04skqfp25","country_code":"CA","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1297363086","https://openalex.org/I4399598460"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I185261750","display_name":"University of Toronto","ror":"https://ror.org/03dbr7087","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I185261750"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Prabhat Jha","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Global Health Research, St. Michael's Hospital, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Global Health Research, St. Michael's Hospital, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1297363086","https://openalex.org/I185261750"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012453215","display_name":"Brian Williams","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3174-4876"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26092322","display_name":"Stellenbosch University","ror":"https://ror.org/05bk57929","country_code":"ZA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}],"countries":["ZA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Brian Williams","raw_affiliation_strings":["South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26092322"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5043890643","display_name":"Lyle R. McKinnon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7157-0700"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12859529","display_name":"University of Nairobi","ror":"https://ror.org/02y9nww90","country_code":"KE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12859529"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I185261750","display_name":"University of Toronto","ror":"https://ror.org/03dbr7087","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I185261750"]}],"countries":["CA","KE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lyle McKinnon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya","Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya","Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12859529"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12859529"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185261750"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058545014","display_name":"Sake J. de Vlas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1830-5668"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801952686","display_name":"Erasmus MC","ror":"https://ror.org/018906e22","country_code":"NL","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801952686"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sake J. de Vlas","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801952686"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":6,"institutions_distinct_count":8,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5058545014"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801952686"],"apc_list":{"value":3043,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3043},"apc_paid":{"value":3043,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3043},"fwci":2.0902,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":25,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86527146,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"10","issue":"3","first_page":"e1003459","last_page":"e1003459"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10082","display_name":"HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10082","display_name":"HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10327","display_name":"Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health","score":0.9983999729156494,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3600","display_name":"General Health Professions"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11860","display_name":"HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-immunodeficiency-virus","display_name":"Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)","score":0.594377875328064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transmission","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","score":0.5665631294250488},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demography","display_name":"Demography","score":0.5077658891677856},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sexual-behavior","display_name":"Sexual behavior","score":0.5054848194122314},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sexual-transmission","display_name":"Sexual transmission","score":0.44475057721138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sexual-contact","display_name":"Sexual contact","score":0.44262969493865967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.32968777418136597},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.29281944036483765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.22760415077209473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/immunology","display_name":"Immunology","score":0.17566686868667603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/developmental-psychology","display_name":"Developmental psychology","score":0.14382818341255188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sociology","display_name":"Sociology","score":0.10034096240997314}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3013748606","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15787","display_name":"Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)","level":2,"score":0.594377875328064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.5665631294250488},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.5077658891677856},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993290233","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q608","display_name":"Sexual behavior","level":2,"score":0.5054848194122314},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019340110","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q525512","display_name":"Sexual transmission","level":4,"score":0.44475057721138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992612168","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q608","display_name":"Sexual contact","level":4,"score":0.44262969493865967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.32968777418136597},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.29281944036483765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.22760415077209473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C203014093","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101929","display_name":"Immunology","level":1,"score":0.17566686868667603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138496976","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q175002","display_name":"Developmental psychology","level":1,"score":0.14382818341255188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.10034096240997314},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197746943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q68541106","display_name":"Microbicide","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778082588","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101896","display_name":"Gonorrhea","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000349","descriptor_name":"Africa","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000349","descriptor_name":"Africa","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000349","descriptor_name":"Africa","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012309","descriptor_name":"Risk-Taking","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012309","descriptor_name":"Risk-Taking","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012309","descriptor_name":"Risk-Taking","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012725","descriptor_name":"Sexual Behavior","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012725","descriptor_name":"Sexual Behavior","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012725","descriptor_name":"Sexual Behavior","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015658","descriptor_name":"HIV Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015658","descriptor_name":"HIV Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015658","descriptor_name":"HIV Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015658","descriptor_name":"HIV Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015658","descriptor_name":"HIV Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015658","descriptor_name":"HIV Infections","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015995","descriptor_name":"Prevalence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015995","descriptor_name":"Prevalence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015995","descriptor_name":"Prevalence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D044966","descriptor_name":"Anti-Retroviral Agents","qualifier_ui":"Q000627","qualifier_name":"therapeutic use","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D044966","descriptor_name":"Anti-Retroviral Agents","qualifier_ui":"Q000627","qualifier_name":"therapeutic use","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D044966","descriptor_name":"Anti-Retroviral Agents","qualifier_ui":"Q000627","qualifier_name":"therapeutic use","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058872","descriptor_name":"Epidemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058872","descriptor_name":"Epidemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D058872","descriptor_name":"Epidemics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":8,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:24626088","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24626088","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS computational biology","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.eur.nl:openaire/15fa5265-73a3-4771-a8f3-6f071c6426ef","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pure.eur.nl/en/publications/15fa5265-73a3-4771-a8f3-6f071c6426ef","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401266","display_name":"EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","host_organization_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Nagelkerke, N, Arora, P, Jha, P, Williams, B, McKinnon, L & de Vlas, S 2014, 'The Rise and Fall of HIV in High-Prevalence Countries: A Challenge for Mathematical Modeling', PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 10, no. 3. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:2936604","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3952813","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:eur:oai:repub.eur.nl:55839","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/1765/55839","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196287","display_name":"RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","host_organization_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, 10(3)","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:42d288be89aa4a2c90c6b86308cf8090","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/42d288be89aa4a2c90c6b86308cf8090","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 10, Iss 3, p e1003459 (2014)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.eur.nl:publications/15fa5265-73a3-4771-a8f3-6f071c6426ef","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401266","display_name":"EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","host_organization_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":""},{"id":"pmh:oai:repub.eur.nl:55839","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://repub.eur.nl/pub/55839","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196287","display_name":"RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","host_organization_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology vol. 10 no. 3","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459","pdf_url":"https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459&type=printable","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S86033158","display_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","issn_l":"1553-734X","issn":["1553-734X","1553-7358"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315706","host_organization_name":"Public Library of Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315706"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Public Library of Science"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"PLoS Computational Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.8600000143051147}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2035254050.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2035254050.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":122,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W48293623","https://openalex.org/W650496038","https://openalex.org/W1502446969","https://openalex.org/W1596026070","https://openalex.org/W1606697907","https://openalex.org/W1687810567","https://openalex.org/W1895898914","https://openalex.org/W1968170171","https://openalex.org/W1972139662","https://openalex.org/W1982305100","https://openalex.org/W1986574361","https://openalex.org/W1987443112","https://openalex.org/W1987641348","https://openalex.org/W1994333367","https://openalex.org/W1999702450","https://openalex.org/W2002574877","https://openalex.org/W2004772894","https://openalex.org/W2014834756","https://openalex.org/W2015617063","https://openalex.org/W2017391004","https://openalex.org/W2019632798","https://openalex.org/W2019911170","https://openalex.org/W2021204089","https://openalex.org/W2022104434","https://openalex.org/W2022130131","https://openalex.org/W2027138223","https://openalex.org/W2029558670","https://openalex.org/W2034695327","https://openalex.org/W2036408211","https://openalex.org/W2039062327","https://openalex.org/W2043618431","https://openalex.org/W2049521141","https://openalex.org/W2051249963","https://openalex.org/W2051884632","https://openalex.org/W2052975806","https://openalex.org/W2053138429","https://openalex.org/W2054233015","https://openalex.org/W2055164441","https://openalex.org/W2057386618","https://openalex.org/W2057590324","https://openalex.org/W2059347143","https://openalex.org/W2061474260","https://openalex.org/W2063256035","https://openalex.org/W2063467933","https://openalex.org/W2065995052","https://openalex.org/W2068032771","https://openalex.org/W2068192246","https://openalex.org/W2068843186","https://openalex.org/W2068948840","https://openalex.org/W2072532210","https://openalex.org/W2074620757","https://openalex.org/W2075292149","https://openalex.org/W2076225720","https://openalex.org/W2079580813","https://openalex.org/W2080988445","https://openalex.org/W2086018999","https://openalex.org/W2086372355","https://openalex.org/W2089104366","https://openalex.org/W2090351220","https://openalex.org/W2094895481","https://openalex.org/W2094908852","https://openalex.org/W2095718569","https://openalex.org/W2097289578","https://openalex.org/W2098985784","https://openalex.org/W2099048494","https://openalex.org/W2103920597","https://openalex.org/W2103938894","https://openalex.org/W2104216185","https://openalex.org/W2104595316","https://openalex.org/W2105695017","https://openalex.org/W2108653287","https://openalex.org/W2109992855","https://openalex.org/W2112509042","https://openalex.org/W2113071805","https://openalex.org/W2113161108","https://openalex.org/W2114403856","https://openalex.org/W2115177580","https://openalex.org/W2117002055","https://openalex.org/W2117057469","https://openalex.org/W2118663100","https://openalex.org/W2119070248","https://openalex.org/W2121212732","https://openalex.org/W2121655917","https://openalex.org/W2123797251","https://openalex.org/W2125586839","https://openalex.org/W2126095109","https://openalex.org/W2131539938","https://openalex.org/W2131674674","https://openalex.org/W2133241248","https://openalex.org/W2134642396","https://openalex.org/W2143421242","https://openalex.org/W2144466424","https://openalex.org/W2144889686","https://openalex.org/W2145067766","https://openalex.org/W2146864017","https://openalex.org/W2150767693","https://openalex.org/W2152048324","https://openalex.org/W2152505869","https://openalex.org/W2152845061","https://openalex.org/W2154353570","https://openalex.org/W2154441926","https://openalex.org/W2154499327","https://openalex.org/W2156151523","https://openalex.org/W2160226661","https://openalex.org/W2160534746","https://openalex.org/W2161358581","https://openalex.org/W2161670720","https://openalex.org/W2162206940","https://openalex.org/W2163036286","https://openalex.org/W2165074561","https://openalex.org/W2165411092","https://openalex.org/W2165611205","https://openalex.org/W2166309712","https://openalex.org/W2171689424","https://openalex.org/W2179492824","https://openalex.org/W2282196007","https://openalex.org/W2501548935","https://openalex.org/W2623930462","https://openalex.org/W3023742466","https://openalex.org/W3025834346","https://openalex.org/W4300493228","https://openalex.org/W4388299012"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2116792533","https://openalex.org/W3203556363","https://openalex.org/W2952393539","https://openalex.org/W3000618160","https://openalex.org/W2246957627","https://openalex.org/W2045029892","https://openalex.org/W2409550527","https://openalex.org/W2078754059","https://openalex.org/W2942072162","https://openalex.org/W2163893356"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Several":[0],"countries":[1,43],"with":[2,21],"generalized,":[3],"high-prevalence":[4],"HIV":[5,18,138],"epidemics,":[6,19],"mostly":[7],"in":[8,15,41,137],"sub-Saharan":[9],"Africa,":[10],"have":[11,24,155],"experienced":[12],"rapid":[13,22],"declines":[14,40,84],"transmission.":[16],"These":[17],"often":[20,67],"onsets,":[23],"generally":[25],"been":[26,60,157],"attributed":[27],"to":[28,34,46,172],"a":[29],"combination":[30],"of":[31,51,64,71,93,110,134,143,147,163],"factors":[32,153],"related":[33],"high-risk":[35],"sexual":[36,104],"behavior.":[37],"The":[38],"subsequent":[39],"these":[42,83],"began":[44],"prior":[45],"widespread":[47],"therapy":[48],"or":[49],"implementation":[50],"any":[52],"other":[53],"major":[54],"biomedical":[55],"prevention.":[56],"This":[57],"change":[58],"has":[59],"construed":[61],"as":[62],"evidence":[63,76],"behavior":[65,78,112],"change,":[66],"on":[68],"the":[69,91,99,108,135,144,148,170],"basis":[70],"mathematical":[72],"models,":[73],"but":[74],"direct":[75],"for":[77,161],"changes":[79],"that":[80,98,116,132,151,154],"would":[81],"explain":[82],"is":[85],"limited.":[86],"Here,":[87],"we":[88,130],"look":[89],"at":[90],"structure":[92],"current":[94],"models":[95],"and":[96,124,150],"argue":[97,115],"common":[100],"\"fixed":[101],"risk":[102],"per":[103],"contact\"":[105],"assumption":[106,118],"favors":[107],"conclusion":[109],"substantial":[111],"changes.":[113],"We":[114],"this":[117,127],"ignores":[119],"reported":[120],"non-linearities":[121],"between":[122],"exposure":[123],"risk.":[125],"Taking":[126],"into":[128],"account,":[129],"propose":[131],"some":[133],"decline":[136],"transmission":[139],"may":[140,167],"be":[141],"part":[142],"natural":[145],"dynamics":[146],"epidemic,":[149],"several":[152],"traditionally":[156],"ignored":[158],"by":[159],"modelers":[160],"lack":[162],"precise":[164],"quantitative":[165],"estimates":[166],"well":[168],"hold":[169],"key":[171],"understanding":[173],"epidemiologic":[174],"trends.":[175]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-08-28T12:50:07.497085","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
