{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4412977915","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558","title":"Angular Combining of Forecasts of Probability Distributions","display_name":"Angular Combining of Forecasts of Probability Distributions","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-07-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4412977915","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S33323087","display_name":"Management Science","issn_l":"0025-1909","issn":["0025-1909","1526-5501"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315699","host_organization_name":"Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315699"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Management Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://purehost.bath.ac.uk/ws/files/357738235/Combined_AAM_and_Appendix.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112221171","display_name":"James W. Taylor","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7580-800X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210146410","display_name":"Science Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/04j8yhy50","country_code":"GB","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210146410"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"James W. Taylor","raw_affiliation_strings":["Sa\u00efd Business School,  University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1HP, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7580-800X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Sa\u00efd Business School,  University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1HP, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210146410","https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101987220","display_name":"Xiaochun Meng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2482-1511"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I51601045","display_name":"University of Bath","ror":"https://ror.org/002h8g185","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I51601045"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xiaochun Meng","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Management,  University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2482-1511","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Management,  University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I51601045"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.4773,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.84493925,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"72","issue":"3","first_page":"2111","last_page":"2133"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9983999729156494,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9983999729156494,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10282","display_name":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","score":0.9776999950408936,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14465","display_name":"Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies","score":0.9760000109672546,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variance","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","score":0.739964485168457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantile","display_name":"Quantile","score":0.711662232875824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.6826894283294678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-distribution","display_name":"Probability distribution","score":0.47172990441322327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.43558216094970703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/distribution","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","score":0.42382386326789856},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.41063857078552246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.39856258034706116},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.3320288360118866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-analysis","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","score":0.08624479174613953}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.739964485168457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118671147","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q578714","display_name":"Quantile","level":2,"score":0.711662232875824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6826894283294678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.47172990441322327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.43558216094970703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.42382386326789856},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.41063857078552246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.39856258034706116},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3320288360118866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.08624479174613953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S33323087","display_name":"Management Science","issn_l":"0025-1909","issn":["0025-1909","1526-5501"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315699","host_organization_name":"Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315699"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Management Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:purehost.bath.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/4f5ebc56-6950-4edd-8e7a-0be06a9e845a","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publications/4f5ebc56-6950-4edd-8e7a-0be06a9e845a","pdf_url":"https://purehost.bath.ac.uk/ws/files/357738235/Combined_AAM_and_Appendix.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196294","display_name":"Pure (University of Bath)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I51601045","host_organization_name":"University of Bath","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I51601045"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Taylor, J W & Meng, X 2025, 'Angular Combining of Forecasts of Probability Distributions', Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:purehost.bath.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/4f5ebc56-6950-4edd-8e7a-0be06a9e845a","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publications/4f5ebc56-6950-4edd-8e7a-0be06a9e845a","pdf_url":"https://purehost.bath.ac.uk/ws/files/357738235/Combined_AAM_and_Appendix.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196294","display_name":"Pure (University of Bath)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I51601045","host_organization_name":"University of Bath","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I51601045"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Taylor, J W & Meng, X 2025, 'Angular Combining of Forecasts of Probability Distributions', Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4412977915.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4412977915.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":48,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1495168406","https://openalex.org/W1508464170","https://openalex.org/W1970744674","https://openalex.org/W2003281240","https://openalex.org/W2025720061","https://openalex.org/W2033501063","https://openalex.org/W2043462999","https://openalex.org/W2047445560","https://openalex.org/W2126106688","https://openalex.org/W2127576890","https://openalex.org/W2129487167","https://openalex.org/W2158808535","https://openalex.org/W2158840489","https://openalex.org/W2409622555","https://openalex.org/W2561346577","https://openalex.org/W2589489396","https://openalex.org/W2625224297","https://openalex.org/W2776791092","https://openalex.org/W2796226101","https://openalex.org/W2799851825","https://openalex.org/W2895438781","https://openalex.org/W2905343194","https://openalex.org/W2906550014","https://openalex.org/W2964208955","https://openalex.org/W2974378149","https://openalex.org/W3013080757","https://openalex.org/W3021318637","https://openalex.org/W3022862395","https://openalex.org/W3031381838","https://openalex.org/W3044911833","https://openalex.org/W3092785921","https://openalex.org/W3100067787","https://openalex.org/W3121494657","https://openalex.org/W3121649065","https://openalex.org/W3122054577","https://openalex.org/W3122495866","https://openalex.org/W3123271477","https://openalex.org/W3124349228","https://openalex.org/W3125022023","https://openalex.org/W3125857399","https://openalex.org/W3174685221","https://openalex.org/W3177739135","https://openalex.org/W4200370185","https://openalex.org/W4220757792","https://openalex.org/W4226263956","https://openalex.org/W4283745601","https://openalex.org/W4286203324","https://openalex.org/W4391069716"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1488761988","https://openalex.org/W2044551864","https://openalex.org/W1572557500","https://openalex.org/W3124946120","https://openalex.org/W4390690393","https://openalex.org/W2047938026","https://openalex.org/W2585269888","https://openalex.org/W2581236533","https://openalex.org/W3121392242","https://openalex.org/W2127999608"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"When":[0],"multiple":[1],"forecasts":[2,236],"are":[3,76,203,266],"available":[4,267],"for":[5,234],"a":[6,12,148,155,163,168,188,213],"probability":[7],"distribution,":[8],"forecast":[9],"combining":[10,35,103,114,124],"enables":[11],"pragmatic":[13,164],"synthesis":[14],"of":[15,22,41,68,135,196,199,237],"the":[16,20,23,34,39,42,59,66,69,100,104,132,194,197,200],"information":[17],"to":[18,38,54,61,65,85,122,125,193],"extract":[19],"wisdom":[21],"crowd.":[24],"The":[25,145,260],"linear":[26],"opinion":[27],"pool":[28],"has":[29,47],"been":[30,48],"widely":[31],"used,":[32],"whereby":[33],"is":[36,121,147],"applied":[37,63],"probabilities":[40,87,105],"distributional":[43,70,101,235],"forecasts.":[44,71],"However,":[45],"it":[46,79],"argued":[49],"that":[50,150,202,209],"this":[51,91,142],"will":[52],"tend":[53],"deliver":[55],"overdispersed":[56],"distributions,":[57],"prompting":[58],"combination":[60],"be":[62,107,152],"instead":[64],"quantiles":[67],"Results":[72],"from":[73],"different":[74],"applications":[75],"mixed,":[77],"leaving":[78],"as":[80,109,116,178],"an":[81,95,129],"empirical":[82,232],"question":[83],"whether":[84],"combine":[86],"or":[88],"quantiles.":[89],"In":[90],"paper,":[92],"we":[93,161,175],"present":[94],"alternative":[96],"approach.":[97],"Looking":[98],"at":[99,268],"forecasts,":[102],"can":[106,151],"viewed":[108],"vertical":[110,136,180,219],"combining,":[111],"with":[112,179,190,215],"quantile":[113],"seen":[115],"horizontal":[117,138,182,228],"combining.":[118,139,144],"Our":[119],"proposal":[120],"allow":[123],"take":[126],"place":[127],"on":[128],"angle":[130,146],"between":[131],"extreme":[133],"cases":[134],"and":[137,167,181,243,255,263],"We":[140,206,230],"term":[141],"angular":[143,184,210],"parameter":[149],"optimized":[153],"using":[154],"proper":[156],"scoring":[157],"rule.":[158],"For":[159],"implementation,":[160],"provide":[162,231],"numerical":[165],"approach":[166],"simulation":[169],"algorithm.":[170],"Among":[171],"our":[172],"theoretical":[173],"results,":[174],"show":[176,208],"that,":[177],"averaging,":[183,220],"averaging":[185,211],"results":[186,233],"in":[187],"distribution":[189,214],"mean":[191],"equal":[192],"average":[195],"means":[198],"distributions":[201],"being":[204],"combined.":[205],"also":[207],"produces":[212],"lower":[216],"variance":[217,226],"than":[218,227],"and,":[221],"under":[222],"certain":[223],"assumptions,":[224],"greater":[225],"averaging.":[229],"COVID":[238],"mortality,":[239],"macroeconomic":[240],"survey":[241],"data,":[242],"electricity":[244],"prices.":[245],"This":[246],"paper":[247],"was":[248],"accepted":[249],"by":[250],"Jack":[251],"Soll,":[252],"behavioral":[253],"economics":[254],"decision":[256],"analysis.":[257],"Supplemental":[258],"Material:":[259],"online":[261],"appendices":[262],"data":[264],"files":[265],"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05558":[269],".":[270]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-06-23T13:55:30.953635","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
