{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2186320208","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","title":"Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler\u2019s Fallacy","display_name":"Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler\u2019s Fallacy","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-08-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2186320208","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","mag":"2186320208"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S33323087","display_name":"Management Science","issn_l":"0025-1909","issn":["0025-1909","1526-5501"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315699","host_organization_name":"Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315699"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Management Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://pure.eur.nl/en/publications/480e8835-8112-49b0-a0cf-2185e0439249","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062038989","display_name":"Qingxia Kong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6812-9535"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","display_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","ror":"https://ror.org/057w15z03","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Qingxia Kong","raw_affiliation_strings":["Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, Netherlands"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023937506","display_name":"Georg D. Granic","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9504-3545"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","display_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","ror":"https://ror.org/057w15z03","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Georg D. Granic","raw_affiliation_strings":["Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, Netherlands"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078922228","display_name":"Nicolas Lambert","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4976-6560"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nicolas S. Lambert","raw_affiliation_strings":["Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026381568","display_name":"Chung\u2010Piaw Teo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0534-6858"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165932596","display_name":"National University of Singapore","ror":"https://ror.org/01tgyzw49","country_code":"SG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}],"countries":["SG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chung Piaw Teo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Analytics and Operations & Institute of Operations Research and Analytics, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117592"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Analytics and Operations & Institute of Operations Research and Analytics, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117592","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5062038989"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.7419,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":55,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9223509,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"66","issue":"2","first_page":"844","last_page":"862"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11705","display_name":"Gambling Behavior and Treatments","score":0.9983999729156494,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3203","display_name":"Clinical Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9850000143051147,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lottery","display_name":"Lottery","score":0.985285758972168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fallacy","display_name":"Fallacy","score":0.9467933773994446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.5703675746917725},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-economics","display_name":"Mathematical economics","score":0.4810471832752228},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/phenomenon","display_name":"Phenomenon","score":0.445272296667099},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/positive-economics","display_name":"Positive economics","score":0.39460641145706177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/microeconomics","display_name":"Microeconomics","score":0.3218270540237427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemology","display_name":"Epistemology","score":0.20433616638183594},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/philosophy","display_name":"Philosophy","score":0.16633641719818115}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777340749","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6684955","display_name":"Lottery","level":2,"score":0.985285758972168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781035248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186150","display_name":"Fallacy","level":2,"score":0.9467933773994446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5703675746917725},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.4810471832752228},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50335755","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q483247","display_name":"Phenomenon","level":2,"score":0.445272296667099},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.39460641145706177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.3218270540237427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.20433616638183594},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.16633641719818115}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S33323087","display_name":"Management Science","issn_l":"0025-1909","issn":["0025-1909","1526-5501"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315699","host_organization_name":"Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315699"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Management Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.eur.nl:openaire/480e8835-8112-49b0-a0cf-2185e0439249","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pure.eur.nl/en/publications/480e8835-8112-49b0-a0cf-2185e0439249","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401266","display_name":"EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","host_organization_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Kong, C, Granic, G, Lambert, NS & Teo, CP 2019, 'Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot-Hand Meets the Gambler's Fallacy', Management Science, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 844-862. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.eur.nl:openaire/480e8835-8112-49b0-a0cf-2185e0439249","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pure.eur.nl/en/publications/480e8835-8112-49b0-a0cf-2185e0439249","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401266","display_name":"EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I913958620","host_organization_name":"Erasmus University Rotterdam","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913958620"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Kong, C, Granic, G, Lambert, NS & Teo, CP 2019, 'Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot-Hand Meets the Gambler's Fallacy', Management Science, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 844-862. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3233","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6950833131","display_name":"ICES: Small: Information Elicitation and Aggregation in Market Mechanisms","funder_award_id":"1101209","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8359648888","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"452-13-013","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321800","funder_display_name":"Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G848032724","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Science","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320308380","display_name":"Yale University","ror":"https://ror.org/03v76x132"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320698","display_name":"National University of Singapore","ror":"https://ror.org/01tgyzw49"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321800","display_name":"Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek","ror":"https://ror.org/04jsz6e67"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":47,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W269557233","https://openalex.org/W1496462336","https://openalex.org/W1545796603","https://openalex.org/W1757961761","https://openalex.org/W1897570712","https://openalex.org/W1973311334","https://openalex.org/W1974613012","https://openalex.org/W1976624377","https://openalex.org/W1992824053","https://openalex.org/W1998780165","https://openalex.org/W2004810702","https://openalex.org/W2012452277","https://openalex.org/W2038243437","https://openalex.org/W2050945351","https://openalex.org/W2056125794","https://openalex.org/W2060745077","https://openalex.org/W2072333170","https://openalex.org/W2072891170","https://openalex.org/W2076543472","https://openalex.org/W2087052816","https://openalex.org/W2099111195","https://openalex.org/W2108511237","https://openalex.org/W2109047492","https://openalex.org/W2111263143","https://openalex.org/W2123930170","https://openalex.org/W2137524855","https://openalex.org/W2143221858","https://openalex.org/W2146299039","https://openalex.org/W2149349596","https://openalex.org/W2154691468","https://openalex.org/W2293374623","https://openalex.org/W2327621194","https://openalex.org/W2585292421","https://openalex.org/W2937741368","https://openalex.org/W2990384283","https://openalex.org/W3104566134","https://openalex.org/W3122464059","https://openalex.org/W3122578644","https://openalex.org/W3122906549","https://openalex.org/W3123045587","https://openalex.org/W3123731685","https://openalex.org/W3125273290","https://openalex.org/W4251446432","https://openalex.org/W4253708194","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4292157289","https://openalex.org/W4313429331"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2186320208","https://openalex.org/W2920833667","https://openalex.org/W2764417238","https://openalex.org/W2068353641","https://openalex.org/W2891719189","https://openalex.org/W3140391335","https://openalex.org/W2154691468","https://openalex.org/W4384571240","https://openalex.org/W1973311334","https://openalex.org/W3125033052"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,82,109],"demonstrate":[1],"that":[2,64,92,115,130],"lottery":[3,57,80,107,117],"markets":[4],"can":[5,101],"exhibit":[6],"the":[7,22,45,51,55,65,94,98,131,150],"\u201chot-hand\u201d":[8],"phenomenon,":[9],"in":[10,25,54,79,103,158,161],"which":[11],"past":[12,30],"winning":[13,124,134,168],"numbers":[14,71],"tend":[15],"to":[16,90,145],"have":[17,42],"a":[18,141,146,155],"greater":[19],"share":[20],"of":[21,47,86,106,133,149],"betting":[23],"proportion":[24],"future":[26,32],"draws":[27],"even":[28],"though":[29],"and":[31,97],"events":[33],"are":[34,72],"independent.":[35],"This":[36,170],"is":[37],"surprising":[38],"as":[39,78],"previous":[40],"works":[41],"instead":[43],"documented":[44],"presence":[46,148],"an":[48],"opposite":[49],"effect,":[50],"\u201cgambler\u2019s":[52],"fallacy\u201d":[53],"U.S.":[56],"market.":[58],"The":[59],"current":[60],"literature":[61],"also":[62],"suggests":[63],"gambler\u2019s":[66,95,151],"fallacy":[67,96,100],"prevails":[68],"when":[69],"random":[70],"generated":[73],"by":[74,174],"mechanical":[75],"devices,":[76],"such":[77],"games.":[81,108],"use":[83],"two":[84,165],"sets":[85],"naturally":[87],"occurring":[88],"data":[89],"show":[91,129],"both":[93],"hot-hand":[99,159],"exist":[102],"different":[104],"types":[105],"then":[110],"run":[111],"online":[112],"experimental":[113,127],"studies":[114],"mimic":[116],"games":[118,163],"with":[119,164],"one,":[120],"two,":[121],"or":[122,166],"three":[123,167],"numbers.":[125,169],"Our":[126],"results":[128],"number":[132],"prizes":[135],"impacts":[136],"behavior.":[137],"In":[138],"particular,":[139],"whereas":[140],"single-prize":[142],"game":[143],"leads":[144],"strong":[147],"fallacy,":[152],"we":[153],"observe":[154],"significant":[156],"increase":[157],"behavior":[160],"multiple-prize":[162],"paper":[171],"was":[172],"accepted":[173],"David":[175],"Simchi-Levi,":[176],"behavioral":[177],"economics.":[178]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":34},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-04-10T15:06:20.359241","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}