{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4230210321","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15516709cog1903_4","title":"A Source of Bayesian Priors","display_name":"A Source of Bayesian Priors","publication_year":1995,"publication_date":"1995-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4230210321","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15516709cog1903_4"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1207/s15516709cog1903_4","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15516709cog1903_4","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S78735424","display_name":"Cognitive Science","issn_l":"0364-0213","issn":["0364-0213","1551-6709"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Cognitive Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/98184","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112742013","display_name":"Daniel N. Osherson","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Osherson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Istituto San Raffaele"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Istituto San Raffaele","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5104057621","display_name":"Edward E. Smith","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edward E. Smith","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Michigan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Michigan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012496171","display_name":"Eldar Shafir","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8811-4296"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eldar Shafir","raw_affiliation_strings":["Princeton University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Princeton University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110178564","display_name":"Antoine Gualtierotti","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97565354","display_name":"University of Lausanne","ror":"https://ror.org/019whta54","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97565354"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Antoine Gualtierotti","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Lausanne"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Lausanne","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97565354"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075557005","display_name":"Kevin Biolsi","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kevin Biolsi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Istituto San Raffaele"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Istituto San Raffaele","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5112742013"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3810,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3810},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.8082,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.68181818,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"19","issue":"3","first_page":"377","last_page":"405"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.996999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.996999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9843999743461609,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9438999891281128,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prior-probability","display_name":"Prior probability","score":0.8546217083930969},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.7304551005363464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/axiom","display_name":"Axiom","score":0.6634164452552795},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5887071490287781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.5746539831161499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-distribution","display_name":"Probability distribution","score":0.541375458240509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/obstacle","display_name":"Obstacle","score":0.5193018317222595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.5179797410964966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.4476369023323059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.27817562222480774},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.23128479719161987}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.8546217083930969},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.7304551005363464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167729594","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17736","display_name":"Axiom","level":2,"score":0.6634164452552795},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5887071490287781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5746539831161499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.541375458240509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776650193","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q264661","display_name":"Obstacle","level":2,"score":0.5193018317222595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5179797410964966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4476369023323059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.27817562222480774},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.23128479719161987},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1207/s15516709cog1903_4","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15516709cog1903_4","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S78735424","display_name":"Cognitive Science","issn_l":"0364-0213","issn":["0364-0213","1551-6709"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Cognitive Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/98184","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/98184>","pdf_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/98184","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400393","display_name":"Deep Blue (University of Michigan)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","host_organization_name":"University of Michigan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/98184","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/98184>","pdf_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/98184","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400393","display_name":"Deep Blue (University of Michigan)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","host_organization_name":"University of Michigan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.5299999713897705,"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2799854977","display_name":"Synthesis of Probabilities for Use in Bayesian Expert Systems","funder_award_id":"32399","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320924","funder_display_name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320924","display_name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","ror":"https://ror.org/00yjd3n13"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4230210321.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4230210321.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":43,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W17682891","https://openalex.org/W20179439","https://openalex.org/W78622622","https://openalex.org/W89983288","https://openalex.org/W108060427","https://openalex.org/W181660137","https://openalex.org/W573363512","https://openalex.org/W1482189126","https://openalex.org/W1516964807","https://openalex.org/W1820660493","https://openalex.org/W1896826160","https://openalex.org/W1965548659","https://openalex.org/W1967361629","https://openalex.org/W1986765654","https://openalex.org/W2003175365","https://openalex.org/W2011124963","https://openalex.org/W2012995668","https://openalex.org/W2015096709","https://openalex.org/W2027994268","https://openalex.org/W2033277483","https://openalex.org/W2037955148","https://openalex.org/W2046337807","https://openalex.org/W2059975159","https://openalex.org/W2075086929","https://openalex.org/W2081809321","https://openalex.org/W2087714668","https://openalex.org/W2096835773","https://openalex.org/W2131420021","https://openalex.org/W2152909313","https://openalex.org/W2157368609","https://openalex.org/W2161886519","https://openalex.org/W2162829624","https://openalex.org/W2164797238","https://openalex.org/W2253844753","https://openalex.org/W2330690118","https://openalex.org/W3188864409","https://openalex.org/W4232185054","https://openalex.org/W4234153020","https://openalex.org/W4246055311","https://openalex.org/W4252192444","https://openalex.org/W4291236916","https://openalex.org/W4301958211","https://openalex.org/W6820405924"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2794103424","https://openalex.org/W4245435724","https://openalex.org/W2015518264","https://openalex.org/W2135187896","https://openalex.org/W2562263695","https://openalex.org/W3160546271","https://openalex.org/W2147201983","https://openalex.org/W2795035211","https://openalex.org/W2160108762","https://openalex.org/W1718066205"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Establishing":[0],"reasonable,":[1],"prior":[2],"distributions":[3],"remains":[4],"a":[5,41,45,58,66],"significant":[6],"obstacle":[7],"for":[8,23,43],"the":[9,29],"construction":[10],"of":[11,17,31,36,48,61],"probabilistic":[12,62],"expert":[13],"systems.":[14],"Human":[15],"assessment":[16],"chance":[18],"is":[19,55],"often":[20],"relied":[21],"upon":[22],"this":[24,27],"purpose,":[25],"but":[26],"has":[28],"drawback":[30],"being":[32],"inconsistent":[33],"with":[34],"axioms":[35],"probability.":[37],"This":[38],"article":[39],"advances":[40],"method":[42,54],"extracting":[44],"coherent":[46],"distribution":[47],"probability":[49],"from":[50],"human":[51],"judgment.":[52],"The":[53],"based":[56],"on":[57],"psychological":[59],"model":[60],"reasoning,":[63],"followed":[64],"by":[65],"correction":[67],"phase":[68],"using":[69],"linear":[70],"programming.":[71]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
