{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4415618235","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","title":"Prediction of electricity price intervals using dynamic bayesian networks","display_name":"Prediction of electricity price intervals using dynamic bayesian networks","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-10-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4415618235","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","pdf_url":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3035173479","display_name":"Energy Informatics","issn_l":"2520-8942","issn":["2520-8942"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energy Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115602780","display_name":"Hongtao Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1013-5713"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210117043","display_name":"Ningde Normal University","ror":"https://ror.org/01p996c64","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210117043"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Hongtao Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Ningde Normal University, No.1 Xueyuan, Ningde, 352100, Fujian, China"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Ningde Normal University, No.1 Xueyuan, Ningde, 352100, Fujian, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210117043"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5115602780"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210117043"],"apc_list":{"value":790,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":969},"apc_paid":{"value":790,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":969},"fwci":1.3889,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.84711591,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":98,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"8","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.5311999917030334,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.5311999917030334,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10424","display_name":"Electric Power System Optimization","score":0.08399999886751175,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.03999999910593033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-market","display_name":"Electricity market","score":0.6521999835968018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity","display_name":"Electricity","score":0.6370999813079834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interval","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","score":0.6086000204086304},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-interval","display_name":"Prediction interval","score":0.5378999710083008},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/particle-swarm-optimization","display_name":"Particle swarm optimization","score":0.5199000239372253},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wind-power","display_name":"Wind power","score":0.49549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-price-forecasting","display_name":"Electricity price forecasting","score":0.4480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/credible-interval","display_name":"Credible interval","score":0.4408999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-network","display_name":"Bayesian network","score":0.4162999987602234}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146733006","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q676081","display_name":"Electricity market","level":3,"score":0.6521999835968018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206658404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12725","display_name":"Electricity","level":2,"score":0.6370999813079834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.6086000204086304},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.5378999710083008},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C85617194","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2072794","display_name":"Particle swarm optimization","level":2,"score":0.5199000239372253},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78600449","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43302","display_name":"Wind power","level":2,"score":0.49549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.45829999446868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781104810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23580049","display_name":"Electricity price forecasting","level":4,"score":0.4480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121117317","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4439221","display_name":"Credible interval","level":3,"score":0.4408999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4239000082015991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.4162999987602234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.415800005197525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4156999886035919},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.412200003862381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188573790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12705","display_name":"Renewable energy","level":2,"score":0.4083000123500824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.36410000920295715},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.36250001192092896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82142266","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3456604","display_name":"Dynamic Bayesian network","level":3,"score":0.36070001125335693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983129042","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q870344","display_name":"Electricity price","level":3,"score":0.33649998903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C423512","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q383973","display_name":"Electricity generation","level":3,"score":0.322299987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2992999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2919999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.27619999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776292839","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5179217","display_name":"Coverage probability","level":3,"score":0.27619999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C113174947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2859736","display_name":"Tree (set theory)","level":2,"score":0.2680000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89227174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388981","display_name":"Electric power system","level":3,"score":0.25850000977516174}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","pdf_url":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3035173479","display_name":"Energy Informatics","issn_l":"2520-8942","issn":["2520-8942"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energy Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:f757019ee9bd4b2781c6b2bd7043542a","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/f757019ee9bd4b2781c6b2bd7043542a","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Energy Informatics, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-20 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","pdf_url":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00578-6","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3035173479","display_name":"Energy Informatics","issn_l":"2520-8942","issn":["2520-8942"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Energy Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6708293015","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Technology","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323190","funder_display_name":"Fujian Provincial Department of Science and Technology"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323190","display_name":"Fujian Provincial Department of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/00rgzpv08"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4415618235.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4415618235.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1568586930","https://openalex.org/W2013872183","https://openalex.org/W2017462637","https://openalex.org/W2041642688","https://openalex.org/W2068928057","https://openalex.org/W2069090248","https://openalex.org/W2070132485","https://openalex.org/W2096163807","https://openalex.org/W2109762852","https://openalex.org/W2132477882","https://openalex.org/W2315598830","https://openalex.org/W2605168957","https://openalex.org/W2618033241","https://openalex.org/W2778189858","https://openalex.org/W2790002574","https://openalex.org/W2905343194","https://openalex.org/W3019913914","https://openalex.org/W3034213673","https://openalex.org/W3159580687","https://openalex.org/W4205542731","https://openalex.org/W4205596772","https://openalex.org/W4309213988","https://openalex.org/W4309606345","https://openalex.org/W4313887132","https://openalex.org/W4315643164"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,32,55,111,139],"increasing":[1],"volatility":[2],"of":[3,11,37,80,122,129,137,141],"electricity":[4,28,46,51,105,153],"prices,":[5,52,106],"driven":[6],"by":[7,147],"the":[8,66,78,91,142],"growing":[9],"share":[10],"renewable":[12],"energy,":[13],"calls":[14],"for":[15,27,104],"new":[16],"approaches.":[17],"This":[18,173],"paper":[19],"proposes":[20],"a":[21,61,116,124],"dynamic":[22],"Bayesian":[23],"network":[24,56],"(DBN)":[25],"method":[26,92,144],"price":[29,198],"interval":[30,109,113,118],"forecasting.":[31,110],"model":[33,67],"uses":[34],"predicted":[35],"values":[36],"wind":[38,81],"power":[39,42],"generation,":[40,43,84],"total":[41,45,83,86],"and":[44,65,85,101,131,155,167,196],"consumption,":[47],"along":[48],"with":[49,151,156,185],"historical":[50],"as":[53,88],"inputs.":[54],"structure":[57],"is":[58],"determined":[59],"using":[60],"greedy":[62],"search":[63],"algorithm,":[64],"parameters":[68],"are":[69],"estimated":[70],"through":[71],"maximum":[72],"likelihood":[73],"estimation":[74],"(MLE).":[75],"By":[76],"treating":[77],"predictions":[79,114,150],"power,":[82],"consumption":[87],"reasoning":[89],"evidence,":[90],"employs":[93],"joint":[94],"tree":[95],"inference":[96],"to":[97,191],"generate":[98],"discrete":[99],"states":[100],"posterior":[102],"probabilities":[103],"thereby":[107],"enabling":[108],"DBN-based":[112],"achieve":[115],"prediction":[117,179],"coverage":[119],"probability":[120],"(PICP)":[121],"95.24%,":[123],"normalized":[125],"average":[126],"width":[127,134],"(PINAW)":[128],"9.25%,":[130],"an":[132],"accumulated":[133],"deviation":[135],"(AWD)":[136],"0.56%.":[138],"effectiveness":[140],"proposed":[143],"was":[145],"evaluated":[146],"comparing":[148],"its":[149],"actual":[152],"prices":[154],"results":[157],"from":[158],"both":[159],"particle":[160],"swarm":[161],"optimization-kernel":[162],"extreme":[163],"learning":[164],"machine":[165],"(PSO-KELM)":[166],"long":[168],"short-term":[169],"memory":[170],"(LSTM)-based":[171],"methods.":[172],"innovative":[174],"approach":[175],"not":[176],"only":[177],"provides":[178],"intervals":[180],"but":[181],"also":[182],"associates":[183],"them":[184],"corresponding":[186],"probabilities,":[187],"offering":[188],"significant":[189],"potential":[190],"enhance":[192],"market":[193],"participants\u2019":[194],"decision-making":[195],"mitigate":[197],"risks.":[199]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-04-10T15:06:20.359241","created_date":"2025-10-28T00:00:00"}
