{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2125359120","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","title":"Forecasting the locational dynamics of transnational terrorism: a network analytic approach","display_name":"Forecasting the locational dynamics of transnational terrorism: a network analytic approach","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-03-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2125359120","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","mag":"2125359120"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","pdf_url":"https://security-informatics.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2492493267","display_name":"Security Informatics","issn_l":"2190-8532","issn":["2190-8532"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Security Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://security-informatics.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090090567","display_name":"Bruce Desmarais","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3031-8883"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I177605424","display_name":"Amherst College","ror":"https://ror.org/028vqfs63","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I177605424"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24603500","display_name":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","ror":"https://ror.org/0072zz521","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Bruce A Desmarais","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Amherst, 01003, Massachusetts, USA","University of Massachusetts at Amherst"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Amherst, 01003, Massachusetts, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24603500","https://openalex.org/I177605424"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Massachusetts at Amherst","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24603500"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036936081","display_name":"Skyler Cranmer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6213-6400"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Skyler J Cranmer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, 27599, North Carolina, USA","University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, 27599, North Carolina, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5090090567"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I177605424","https://openalex.org/I24603500"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":6.8262,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":28,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96426684,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"2","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10994","display_name":"Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10994","display_name":"Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10064","display_name":"Complex Network Analysis Techniques","score":0.9889000058174133,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11838","display_name":"Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance","score":0.9819999933242798,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/terrorism","display_name":"Terrorism","score":0.8876155614852905},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.7358513474464417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.682524561882019},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geopolitics","display_name":"Geopolitics","score":0.6013468503952026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/enhanced-data-rates-for-gsm-evolution","display_name":"Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution","score":0.5318296551704407},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/communication-source","display_name":"Communication source","score":0.5143164396286011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/process","display_name":"Process (computing)","score":0.49865245819091797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/construct","display_name":"Construct (python library)","score":0.49437737464904785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-security","display_name":"Computer security","score":0.46907278895378113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/identification","display_name":"Identification (biology)","score":0.4260002374649048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.16928192973136902},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.1488427221775055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/telecommunications","display_name":"Telecommunications","score":0.11743336915969849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law","display_name":"Law","score":0.08544272184371948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-network","display_name":"Computer network","score":0.08539307117462158},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/politics","display_name":"Politics","score":0.08417299389839172}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C203133693","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7283","display_name":"Terrorism","level":2,"score":0.8876155614852905},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.7358513474464417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.682524561882019},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201960208","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159385","display_name":"Geopolitics","level":3,"score":0.6013468503952026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162307627","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q204833","display_name":"Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution","level":2,"score":0.5318296551704407},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198104137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q974688","display_name":"Communication source","level":2,"score":0.5143164396286011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.49865245819091797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780801425","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164392","display_name":"Construct (python library)","level":2,"score":0.49437737464904785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.46907278895378113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116834253","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2039217","display_name":"Identification (biology)","level":2,"score":0.4260002374649048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.16928192973136902},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.1488427221775055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.11743336915969849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.08544272184371948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C31258907","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1301371","display_name":"Computer network","level":1,"score":0.08539307117462158},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.08417299389839172},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59822182","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q441","display_name":"Botany","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","pdf_url":"https://security-informatics.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2492493267","display_name":"Security Informatics","issn_l":"2190-8532","issn":["2190-8532"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Security Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","pdf_url":"https://security-informatics.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1186/2190-8532-2-8","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2492493267","display_name":"Security Informatics","issn_l":"2190-8532","issn":["2190-8532"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Security Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.6399999856948853,"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320315711","display_name":"Hill's Pet Nutrition","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332600","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332749","display_name":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","ror":"https://ror.org/0072zz521"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2125359120.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2125359120.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":29,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W574192525","https://openalex.org/W1488792876","https://openalex.org/W1761171396","https://openalex.org/W1989214328","https://openalex.org/W1993672416","https://openalex.org/W2014484695","https://openalex.org/W2015780861","https://openalex.org/W2019176210","https://openalex.org/W2055576364","https://openalex.org/W2064712564","https://openalex.org/W2076844992","https://openalex.org/W2077787974","https://openalex.org/W2078197382","https://openalex.org/W2098509290","https://openalex.org/W2110813122","https://openalex.org/W2112138383","https://openalex.org/W2113456190","https://openalex.org/W2119168393","https://openalex.org/W2120540611","https://openalex.org/W2122989928","https://openalex.org/W2134120521","https://openalex.org/W2143426328","https://openalex.org/W2150082128","https://openalex.org/W2160696964","https://openalex.org/W2170398883","https://openalex.org/W2180060901","https://openalex.org/W2323217484","https://openalex.org/W2420733993","https://openalex.org/W3102907111"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3018195655","https://openalex.org/W1958217578","https://openalex.org/W1960867961","https://openalex.org/W2965844629","https://openalex.org/W4234164611","https://openalex.org/W2749524358","https://openalex.org/W606444205","https://openalex.org/W3144465343","https://openalex.org/W4382894321","https://openalex.org/W2354087421"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Efforts":[0],"to":[1,8,20,66,90,131],"combat":[2],"and":[3,35,51,59,71,107,141],"prevent":[4],"transnational":[5,44,101],"terrorism":[6],"rely,":[7],"a":[9,56,62,77,84,96,123,128,139,142],"great":[10],"extent,":[11],"on":[12],"the":[13,21,28,31,41,68,133],"effective":[14],"allocation":[15,25],"of":[16,23,30,37,43,73,98,119,135],"security":[17],"resources.":[18],"Critical":[19],"success":[22],"this":[24],"process":[26],"is":[27,115,127],"identification":[29],"likely":[32],"geopolitical":[33,69],"sources":[34,70],"targets":[36,72],"terrorism.":[38,74],"We":[39,75],"construct":[40],"network":[42,63],"terrorist":[45,102,124,136],"attacks,":[46],"in":[47,88],"which":[48],"source":[49,140],"(sender)":[50],"target":[52],"(receiver)":[53],"countries":[54],"share":[55],"directed":[57],"edge,":[58],"we":[60,109],"evaluate":[61],"analytic":[64],"approach":[65,87,130],"forecasting":[67,121,132],"integrate":[76],"deterministic,":[78],"similarity-based,":[79],"link":[80,113],"prediction":[81,114],"framework":[82],"into":[83],"probabilistic":[85,112],"modeling":[86],"order":[89],"develop":[91],"an":[92],"edge-forecasting":[93],"method.":[94],"Using":[95],"database":[97],"over":[99],"12,000":[100],"attacks":[103],"occurring":[104],"between":[105,138],"1968":[106],"2002,":[108],"show":[110],"that":[111],"not":[116],"only":[117],"capable":[118],"accurate":[120],"during":[122],"campaign,":[125],"but":[126],"promising":[129],"onset":[134],"hostilities":[137],"target.":[143]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}