{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2139080997","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003754979807100402","title":"Estimating the Size of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: Complementary Use of the Empirical Bayesian Back-Calculation and the Mover-Stayer Model for Gathering the Largest Amount of Information","display_name":"Estimating the Size of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: Complementary Use of the Empirical Bayesian Back-Calculation and the Mover-Stayer Model for Gathering the Largest Amount of Information","publication_year":1998,"publication_date":"1998-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2139080997","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003754979807100402","mag":"2139080997"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/003754979807100402","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003754979807100402","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S32573412","display_name":"SIMULATION","issn_l":"0037-5497","issn":["0037-5497","1741-3133"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SIMULATION","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051652509","display_name":"Cristina Pasqualucci","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I116067653","display_name":"University of Rome Tor Vergata","ror":"https://ror.org/02p77k626","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Cristina Pasqualucci","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Rome Tor Vergata Rome, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Rome Tor Vergata Rome, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065397146","display_name":"Lucilla Rav\u00e0","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3238-7807"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I116067653","display_name":"University of Rome Tor Vergata","ror":"https://ror.org/02p77k626","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lucilla Rav\u00e0","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Rome Tor Vergata Rome, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Rome Tor Vergata Rome, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091898734","display_name":"Carla Rossi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6557-3684"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I116067653","display_name":"University of Rome Tor Vergata","ror":"https://ror.org/02p77k626","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Carla Rossi","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Rome Tor Vergata Rome, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Rome Tor Vergata Rome, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033802338","display_name":"Giuseppe Schinaia","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I861853513","display_name":"Sapienza University of Rome","ror":"https://ror.org/02be6w209","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Giuseppe Schinaia","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Rome \"La Sapienza\" Rome, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Rome \"La Sapienza\" Rome, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5051652509"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.3188,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.82643678,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"71","issue":"4","first_page":"213","last_page":"227"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13546","display_name":"Census and Population Estimation","score":0.9926000237464905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13546","display_name":"Census and Population Estimation","score":0.9926000237464905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.991599977016449,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.9742000102996826,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.5356952548027039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5107772350311279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-model","display_name":"Epidemic model","score":0.5044275522232056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.5043507814407349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4796919524669647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-immunodeficiency-virus","display_name":"Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)","score":0.45421043038368225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demography","display_name":"Demography","score":0.38386595249176025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.3024413585662842},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.22999227046966553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-health","display_name":"Environmental health","score":0.19237735867500305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.17916125059127808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.15792953968048096}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5356952548027039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5107772350311279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.5044275522232056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5043507814407349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4796919524669647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3013748606","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15787","display_name":"Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)","level":2,"score":0.45421043038368225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.38386595249176025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.3024413585662842},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.22999227046966553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.19237735867500305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.17916125059127808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.15792953968048096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/003754979807100402","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003754979807100402","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S32573412","display_name":"SIMULATION","issn_l":"0037-5497","issn":["0037-5497","1741-3133"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SIMULATION","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:art.torvergata.it:2108/54948","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2108/54948","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400993","display_name":"Cineca Institutional Research Information System (Tor Vergata University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I116067653","host_organization_name":"University of Rome Tor Vergata","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I116067653"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8500000238418579,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":37,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W104188943","https://openalex.org/W128431475","https://openalex.org/W1965761377","https://openalex.org/W1967531224","https://openalex.org/W1971563787","https://openalex.org/W1984200522","https://openalex.org/W1988236284","https://openalex.org/W1994404996","https://openalex.org/W1998787970","https://openalex.org/W1998805047","https://openalex.org/W2005140191","https://openalex.org/W2014215900","https://openalex.org/W2015569381","https://openalex.org/W2020877068","https://openalex.org/W2022821112","https://openalex.org/W2035612121","https://openalex.org/W2046352216","https://openalex.org/W2047726505","https://openalex.org/W2053008729","https://openalex.org/W2057867398","https://openalex.org/W2058120380","https://openalex.org/W2080872140","https://openalex.org/W2093509911","https://openalex.org/W2110891892","https://openalex.org/W2114735018","https://openalex.org/W2119018431","https://openalex.org/W2129222528","https://openalex.org/W2135458074","https://openalex.org/W2163314716","https://openalex.org/W2165850702","https://openalex.org/W2188840644","https://openalex.org/W2294017265","https://openalex.org/W2316622962","https://openalex.org/W2336115893","https://openalex.org/W2484337335","https://openalex.org/W4250788366","https://openalex.org/W4388331465"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2147581087","https://openalex.org/W2971116645","https://openalex.org/W2291447000","https://openalex.org/W2032624981","https://openalex.org/W2418390464","https://openalex.org/W2539167814","https://openalex.org/W2900051199","https://openalex.org/W2360399858","https://openalex.org/W2189082024","https://openalex.org/W2571954582"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"HIV/AIDS":[1,72,188],"epidemic":[2,127],"has":[3],"reached":[4],"the":[5,32,52,58,83,87,98,114,123,126,140,144,152,162,179,186],"end":[6],"of":[7,13,71,82,122,125,143,168,178],"its":[8,14],"second":[9],"decade,":[10],"and":[11,16,25,28,42,57,69,74,161,172,175,182],"estimations":[12],"size":[15],"dynam":[17],"ics":[18],"are":[19,47,62,190],"very":[20],"important,":[21],"particularly":[22],"for":[23],"developing":[24],"planning":[26],"prevention":[27],"therapeutic":[29],"interventions.":[30],"Since":[31],"HIV":[33],"infection":[34],"is":[35,105],"characterized":[36],"by":[37,128],"a":[38,91,102,106],"long":[39],"asymptomatic":[40],"period":[41],"latency":[43],"time,":[44],"observational":[45],"studies":[46],"not":[48],"suitable":[49],"to":[50,96,109,136,185],"study":[51,97],"epidemic.":[53,84],"Dy":[54],"namic":[55],"models":[56,171],"Back-Calculation":[59,117],"(BC)":[60],"methods":[61],"two":[63],"general":[64,103],"methodologies":[65],"which":[66],"provide":[67],"estimates":[68],"projections":[70],"incidence":[73],"prevalence,":[75],"while":[76,113],"focusing":[77],"attention":[78],"on":[79,156],"different":[80],"aspects":[81],"For":[85],"example,":[86],"Mover-Stayer":[88],"(MS)":[89],"Model,":[90],"dynamic":[92,170],"compartmental":[93],"model":[94],"developed":[95],"epidemic's":[99],"spread":[100],"among":[101],"population,":[104],"useful":[107],"tool":[108],"perform":[110],"scenario":[111],"analysis,":[112],"Empirical":[115],"Bayesian":[116],"(EBBC)":[118],"method":[119,184],"allows":[120],"investigation":[121],"dynamics":[124],"risk":[129],"category.":[130],"Both":[131],"methods,":[132,174],"with":[133],"timely":[134],"updating":[135],"reflect":[137],"changes":[138],"in":[139],"natural":[141],"history":[142],"HIV/":[145],"AIDS":[146,158],"epidemic,":[147,189],"were":[148],"recently":[149],"applied":[150],"within":[151],"EU":[153],"Concerted":[154],"Action":[155],"Multinational":[157],"Scenario":[159],"Analysis":[160],"Italian":[163,187],"Consensus":[164],"Conference.":[165],"An":[166],"overview":[167],"some":[169],"BC":[173],"an":[176],"application":[177],"MS":[180],"Model":[181],"EBBC":[183],"presented":[191],"here.":[192]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-05-05T06:06:40.768181","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
