{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4205595489","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2649205","title":"Comparison of Weighted Lag Adaptive LASSO with Autometrics for Covariate Selection and Forecasting Using Time\u2010Series Data","display_name":"Comparison of Weighted Lag Adaptive LASSO with Autometrics for Covariate Selection and Forecasting Using Time\u2010Series Data","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4205595489","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2649205"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2022/2649205","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2649205","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/2649205.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/2649205.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028344600","display_name":"Sara Muhammadullah","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7246-0431"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I189909677","display_name":"Pakistan Institute of Development Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/02bdt4v11","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]}],"countries":["PK"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sara Muhammadullah","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan","Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7246-0431","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049316207","display_name":"Amena Urooj","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4626-5525"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I189909677","display_name":"Pakistan Institute of Development Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/02bdt4v11","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]}],"countries":["PK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Amena Urooj","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan","Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085372208","display_name":"Faridoon Khan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4820-8911"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I189909677","display_name":"Pakistan Institute of Development Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/02bdt4v11","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]}],"countries":["PK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Faridoon Khan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan","Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112727545","display_name":"Mohammed Nasser Alshahrani","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I142608572","display_name":"Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University","ror":"https://ror.org/04jt46d36","country_code":"SA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I142608572"]}],"countries":["SA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mohammed N Alshahrani","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam University,","Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia","Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al\u2013Kharj, Prince Sattam University, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al\u2013Kharj 11942"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam University,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I142608572"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I142608572"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al\u2013Kharj, Prince Sattam University, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al\u2013Kharj 11942","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I142608572"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064585036","display_name":"Mohammed Alqawba","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4707-3381"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I156216236","display_name":"Qassim University","ror":"https://ror.org/01wsfe280","country_code":"SA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I156216236"]}],"countries":["SA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mohammed Alqawba","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Arts, Qassim University, Ar Rass, Saudi Arabia","Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Arts, Qassim University, Ar Rass"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Arts, Qassim University, Ar Rass, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I156216236"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Arts, Qassim University, Ar Rass","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I156216236"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003028813","display_name":"Sanaa Al-Marzouki","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I185163786","display_name":"King Abdulaziz University","ror":"https://ror.org/02ma4wv74","country_code":"SA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I185163786"]}],"countries":["SA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sanaa Al-Marzouki","raw_affiliation_strings":["Statistics Department, Faculty of Sciences, King AbdulAziz University, Jeddah 21551, Saudi Arabia","Statistics Department, Faculty of Sciences, King AbdulAziz University, Jeddah 21551"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistics Department, Faculty of Sciences, King AbdulAziz University, Jeddah 21551, Saudi Arabia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185163786"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Statistics Department, Faculty of Sciences, King AbdulAziz University, Jeddah 21551","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185163786"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5028344600"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I189909677"],"apc_list":{"value":2300,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2300},"apc_paid":{"value":2300,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2300},"fwci":2.0263,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86823296,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"2022","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9812999963760376,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9812999963760376,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13487","display_name":"Statistical and numerical algorithms","score":0.9732999801635742,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.965399980545044,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covariate","display_name":"Covariate","score":0.8387714624404907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lasso","display_name":"Lasso (programming language)","score":0.7834445238113403},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.6429727077484131},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lag","display_name":"Lag","score":0.6286948323249817},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/selection","display_name":"Selection (genetic algorithm)","score":0.5900291800498962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.5634755492210388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5439725518226624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.48402139544487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/feature-selection","display_name":"Feature selection","score":0.45582354068756104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.43183383345603943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.37616604566574097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.33232903480529785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.3075302243232727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.3032824695110321}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119043178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q320723","display_name":"Covariate","level":2,"score":0.8387714624404907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37616216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3218363","display_name":"Lasso (programming language)","level":2,"score":0.7834445238113403},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.6429727077484131},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75778745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q342626","display_name":"Lag","level":2,"score":0.6286948323249817},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81917197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628760","display_name":"Selection (genetic algorithm)","level":2,"score":0.5900291800498962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.5634755492210388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5439725518226624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.48402139544487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148483581","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q446488","display_name":"Feature selection","level":2,"score":0.45582354068756104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.43183383345603943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.37616604566574097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.33232903480529785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3075302243232727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3032824695110321},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C31258907","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1301371","display_name":"Computer network","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1155/2022/2649205","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2649205","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/2649205.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:hin:complx:2649205","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/2649205.xml","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:7b2d65bc511743ecba4399c4458ff611","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/7b2d65bc511743ecba4399c4458ff611","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Complexity, Vol 2022 (2022)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2022/2649205","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2649205","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/2649205.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Partnerships for the goals","score":0.5400000214576721,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/17"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4205595489.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4205595489.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":45,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W49186475","https://openalex.org/W1515478375","https://openalex.org/W1552859963","https://openalex.org/W1593884153","https://openalex.org/W1965125844","https://openalex.org/W1966910378","https://openalex.org/W1968550208","https://openalex.org/W1969886729","https://openalex.org/W1979575715","https://openalex.org/W1984536024","https://openalex.org/W1990981773","https://openalex.org/W2020925091","https://openalex.org/W2042611711","https://openalex.org/W2067402622","https://openalex.org/W2074682976","https://openalex.org/W2079615115","https://openalex.org/W2111345445","https://openalex.org/W2113598616","https://openalex.org/W2136105491","https://openalex.org/W2159706540","https://openalex.org/W2163788593","https://openalex.org/W2182488585","https://openalex.org/W2201918028","https://openalex.org/W2268919590","https://openalex.org/W2286995295","https://openalex.org/W2299817999","https://openalex.org/W2593978661","https://openalex.org/W2785196034","https://openalex.org/W2862010437","https://openalex.org/W2889860110","https://openalex.org/W2962716677","https://openalex.org/W3016689240","https://openalex.org/W3021808698","https://openalex.org/W3036986257","https://openalex.org/W3088158661","https://openalex.org/W3098306969","https://openalex.org/W3121553976","https://openalex.org/W3122503089","https://openalex.org/W3126146365","https://openalex.org/W3141692609","https://openalex.org/W3153775280","https://openalex.org/W3184330816","https://openalex.org/W4200142162","https://openalex.org/W4200279986","https://openalex.org/W4247571494"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2985746494","https://openalex.org/W4206042385","https://openalex.org/W2380784125","https://openalex.org/W128985311","https://openalex.org/W1997711767","https://openalex.org/W2810025138","https://openalex.org/W4386543887","https://openalex.org/W2344475471","https://openalex.org/W4396645692","https://openalex.org/W2765894738"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0,120,156],"order":[1],"to":[2,94],"reduce":[3],"the":[4,61,100,103,122,137,146,176,181,192,199,211],"dimensionality":[5],"of":[6,63,68,125,195],"parameter":[7],"space":[8],"and":[9,49,59,75,85,96,108,140,151,161,166,172,188,204],"enhance":[10],"out\u2010of\u2010sample":[11,69,189,212],"forecasting":[12,190],"performance,":[13],"this":[14],"research":[15],"compares":[16],"regularization":[17,44,98],"techniques":[18,65],"with":[19,34,81,128],"Autometrics":[20,95,126,147,171],"in":[21,66,105],"time\u2010series":[22],"modeling.":[23],"We":[24,197],"mainly":[25],"focus":[26],"on":[27,201],"comparing":[28],"weighted":[29],"lag":[30],"adaptive":[31],"LASSO":[32],"(WLAdaLASSO)":[33],"Autometrics,":[35],"but":[36],"as":[37,207],"a":[38,114,129],"benchmark,":[39],"we":[40,54,179],"estimate":[41],"other":[42,97],"popular":[43],"methods":[45],"LASSO,":[46,158],"AdaLASSO,":[47,159],"SCAD,":[48,160],"MCP.":[50],"For":[51],"analytical":[52],"comparison,":[53],"implement":[55],"Monte":[56],"Carlo":[57],"simulation":[58,89],"assess":[60],"performance":[62],"these":[64],"terms":[67],"Root":[70],"Mean":[71],"Square":[72],"Error,":[73],"Gauge,":[74],"Potency.":[76],"The":[77,88],"comparison":[78],"is":[79,113],"assessed":[80],"varying":[82],"autocorrelation":[83],"coefficients":[84],"sample":[86,139],"sizes.":[87],"experiment":[90],"indicates":[91],"that,":[92],"compared":[93],"approaches,":[99],"WLAdaLASSO":[101],"outperforms":[102],"others":[104],"covariate":[106,186],"selection":[107,187],"forecasting,":[109],"especially":[110],"when":[111],"there":[112],"greater":[115],"linear":[116,131,142],"dependency":[117,132,143],"between":[118,133,144],"predictors.":[119,134],"contrast,":[121,157],"computational":[123],"efficiency":[124],"decreases":[127],"strong":[130],"However,":[135],"under":[136],"large":[138],"weak":[141],"predictors,":[145],"potency":[148],"\u27f6":[149,153],"1":[150],"gauge":[152],"\u03b1":[154],".":[155],"MCP":[162],"select":[163],"more":[164],"covariates":[165],"possess":[167],"higher":[168],"RMSE":[169],"than":[170],"WLAdaLASSO.":[173],"To":[174],"compare":[175],"considered":[177],"techniques,":[178],"made":[180],"Generalized":[182],"Unidentified":[183],"Model":[184],"for":[185,191,210],"trade":[193],"balance":[194],"Pakistan.":[196],"train":[198],"model":[200],"1985\u20132015":[202],"observations":[203,206],"2016\u20132020":[205],"test":[208],"data":[209],"forecast.":[213]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}