{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3122877666","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6610228","title":"Forecasting Different Types of Droughts Simultaneously Using Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI), MLP Neural Network, and Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm (ICA)","display_name":"Forecasting Different Types of Droughts Simultaneously Using Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI), MLP Neural Network, and Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm (ICA)","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3122877666","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6610228","mag":"3122877666"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/6610228","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6610228","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6610228.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6610228.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083102620","display_name":"Pouya Aghelpour","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5640-865X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I167694869","display_name":"Bu-Ali Sina University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ka8rx28","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I167694869"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pouya Aghelpour","raw_affiliation_strings":["Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5640-865X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I167694869"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010242325","display_name":"Vahid Varshavian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9705-3066"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I167694869","display_name":"Bu-Ali Sina University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ka8rx28","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I167694869"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Vahid Varshavian","raw_affiliation_strings":["Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9705-3066","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I167694869"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5010242325"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I167694869"],"apc_list":{"value":2300,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2300},"apc_paid":{"value":2300,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2300},"fwci":2.8186,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":32,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90236822,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"2021","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.996999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multivariate-statistics","display_name":"Multivariate statistics","score":0.7950749397277832},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precipitation","display_name":"Precipitation","score":0.7225182056427002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/index","display_name":"Index (typography)","score":0.6395025849342346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-science","display_name":"Environmental science","score":0.6163963675498962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agriculture","display_name":"Agriculture","score":0.5615285038948059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arid","display_name":"Arid","score":0.5206731557846069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hydrology","display_name":"Hydrology (agriculture)","score":0.5041149854660034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multivariate-analysis","display_name":"Multivariate analysis","score":0.4252709448337555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/aridity-index","display_name":"Aridity index","score":0.4161296486854553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climatology","display_name":"Climatology","score":0.3885650336742401},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.25588440895080566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meteorology","display_name":"Meteorology","score":0.2549315392971039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.21162039041519165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.19848105311393738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.19108828902244568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecology","display_name":"Ecology","score":0.1560390591621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geology","display_name":"Geology","score":0.11494547128677368}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161584116","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate statistics","level":2,"score":0.7950749397277832},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.7225182056427002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.6395025849342346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.6163963675498962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118518473","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11451","display_name":"Agriculture","level":2,"score":0.5615285038948059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150772632","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1330709","display_name":"Arid","level":2,"score":0.5206731557846069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76886044","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2883300","display_name":"Hydrology (agriculture)","level":2,"score":0.5041149854660034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38180746","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1952580","display_name":"Multivariate analysis","level":2,"score":0.4252709448337555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164270790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3773097","display_name":"Aridity index","level":3,"score":0.4161296486854553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.3885650336742401},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.25588440895080566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.2549315392971039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.21162039041519165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.19848105311393738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.19108828902244568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.1560390591621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.11494547128677368},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187320778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1349130","display_name":"Geotechnical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/6610228","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6610228","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6610228.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:hin:complx:6610228","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6610228.xml","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:1efaf001bf0448ea87bfc5d8db665cda","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/1efaf001bf0448ea87bfc5d8db665cda","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Complexity, Vol 2021 (2021)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/6610228","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6610228","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6610228.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Zero hunger","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/2","score":0.4099999964237213}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6766852927","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"98-941","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325944","funder_display_name":"Bu-Ali Sina University"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325944","display_name":"Bu-Ali Sina University","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3122877666.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3122877666.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":51,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W74530406","https://openalex.org/W1632068600","https://openalex.org/W1975629063","https://openalex.org/W1990268136","https://openalex.org/W2020728250","https://openalex.org/W2028143308","https://openalex.org/W2029348212","https://openalex.org/W2033011996","https://openalex.org/W2038128936","https://openalex.org/W2070348362","https://openalex.org/W2083463436","https://openalex.org/W2104157175","https://openalex.org/W2104923199","https://openalex.org/W2108706807","https://openalex.org/W2109110888","https://openalex.org/W2123236800","https://openalex.org/W2153179024","https://openalex.org/W2239092634","https://openalex.org/W2286520113","https://openalex.org/W2294562858","https://openalex.org/W2303882495","https://openalex.org/W2552690540","https://openalex.org/W2757997884","https://openalex.org/W2763277290","https://openalex.org/W2766736793","https://openalex.org/W2794725475","https://openalex.org/W2883112011","https://openalex.org/W2906387543","https://openalex.org/W2913182941","https://openalex.org/W2928644448","https://openalex.org/W2951251697","https://openalex.org/W2954978163","https://openalex.org/W2968534262","https://openalex.org/W2978591474","https://openalex.org/W2997307506","https://openalex.org/W3004879827","https://openalex.org/W3011216618","https://openalex.org/W3011467913","https://openalex.org/W3011744717","https://openalex.org/W3012299384","https://openalex.org/W3014274309","https://openalex.org/W3018887336","https://openalex.org/W3033045904","https://openalex.org/W3036869571","https://openalex.org/W3045652474","https://openalex.org/W3061960139","https://openalex.org/W3080831608","https://openalex.org/W3094151998","https://openalex.org/W3108331601","https://openalex.org/W3119659100","https://openalex.org/W4232364851"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2185775005","https://openalex.org/W2890443535","https://openalex.org/W2371038780","https://openalex.org/W1999226998","https://openalex.org/W2954225118","https://openalex.org/W2405729988","https://openalex.org/W1578494710","https://openalex.org/W4299285283","https://openalex.org/W2386939645","https://openalex.org/W2960368383"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Precipitation":[0,24],"deficit":[1],"causes":[2,240],"meteorological":[3],"drought,":[4,129],"and":[5,19,54,71,103,139,146,156,167,170,193,210,243,256,317],"its":[6,72],"continuation":[7],"appears":[8],"as":[9],"other":[10,322],"different":[11,36,62,314],"types":[12,38,316],"of":[13,35,51,61,98,118,126,136,165,224,231,253,313],"droughts":[14,42,148,158,249],"including":[15,130],"hydrological,":[16],"agricultural,":[17],"economic,":[18],"social":[20],"droughts.":[21,183],"Multivariate":[22],"Standardized":[23],"Index":[25],"(MSPI)":[26],"can":[27,43,216,318],"show":[28],"the":[29,33,48,59,68,76,85,110,116,127,187,201,222,225,228,232,251,271,295,306],"drought":[30,37,90,315],"status":[31,50],"from":[32,109,250],"perspective":[34,252],"simultaneously.":[39],"Forecasting":[40],"multivariate":[41,89,128,182],"provide":[44],"good":[45],"information":[46],"about":[47],"future":[49],"a":[52,290],"region":[53],"will":[55],"be":[56,217,319],"applicable":[57],"for":[58,84,310,321],"planners":[60],"water":[63],"divisions.":[64],"In":[65,184],"this":[66,93],"study,":[67],"MLP":[69,273],"model":[70,274],"hybrid":[73,264],"form":[74],"with":[75],"Imperialistic":[77],"Competitive":[78],"Algorithm":[79],"(MLP\u2010ICA)":[80],"have":[81],"been":[82],"investigated":[83],"first":[86],"time":[87,189,226],"in":[88,123,134,163,180,275],"studies.":[91],"For":[92],"purpose,":[94],"two":[95],"semi\u2010arid":[96],"stations":[97],"western":[99],"Iran":[100],"were":[101,107],"selected,":[102],"their":[104],"precipitation":[105],"data":[106],"provided":[108],"Iranian":[111],"Meteorological":[112],"Organization":[113],"(IRIMO),":[114],"during":[115],"period":[117],"1988\u20132017.":[119],"MSPI":[120,131,143,150,160,171,194,207,211],"was":[121],"calculated":[122],"5\u2010time":[124],"windows":[125,190],"3\u20136":[132,205,261],"(drought":[133,162],"perspectives":[135,164],"soil":[137,254],"moisture":[138,255],"surface":[140,154,257],"hydrology":[141,258],"simultaneously),":[142,149,159,169],"6\u201312":[144,208],"(hydrological":[145],"agricultural":[147,157],"3\u201312":[151,212],"(soil":[152],"moisture,":[153],"hydrology,":[155],"12\u201324":[161,192],"agriculture":[166],"groundwater":[168],"24\u201348":[172,195],"(socio\u2010economical":[173],"droughts).":[174],"The":[175,263,278],"results":[176,269,307],"showed":[177],"acceptable":[178],"performances":[179],"forecasting":[181,248,312],"both":[185],"stations,":[186],"larger":[188],"(MSPI":[191,204,260],")":[196],"had":[197],"better":[198],"predictions":[199],"than":[200,270],"smaller":[202],"ones":[203],",":[206,209],").":[213,262],"Generally,":[214],"it":[215],"reported":[218],"that,":[219],"by":[220,286],"decreasing":[221],"size":[223],"window,":[227],"gradual":[229],"changes":[230],"index":[233],"give":[234],"way":[235],"to":[236,294],"sudden":[237],"jumps.":[238],"This":[239],"weaker":[241,245],"autocorrelation":[242],"consequently":[244],"predictions,":[246],"e.g.,":[247],"simultaneously":[259],"MLP\u2010ICA":[265],"shows":[266],"stronger":[267],"prediction":[268],"simple":[272],"all":[276],"comparisons.":[277],"ICA":[279],"optimizer":[280],"could":[281],"averagely":[282],"improve":[283],"MLP\u2019s":[284],"accuracy":[285],"28.5%,":[287],"which":[288],"is":[289],"significant":[291],"improvement.":[292],"According":[293],"evaluations":[296],"(RMSE":[297],"=":[298,301,304],"0.20;":[299],"MAE":[300],"0.15;":[302],"R":[303],"0.95),":[305],"are":[308],"hopeful":[309],"simultaneous":[311],"tested":[320],"similar":[323],"areas.":[324]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-05-06T08:25:59.206177","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}