{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3154055680","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5596384","title":"Financial Crisis Early Warning Based on Panel Data and Dynamic Dual Choice Model","display_name":"Financial Crisis Early Warning Based on Panel Data and Dynamic Dual Choice Model","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3154055680","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5596384","mag":"3154055680"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/5596384","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5596384","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/5596384.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/5596384.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027250150","display_name":"Qingyu Du","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7551-1372"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6469544","display_name":"City University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/04gpd4q15","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}],"countries":["MO"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Qingyu Du","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Finance, City University of Macau, Taipa 999078, Macau"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7551-1372","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Finance, City University of Macau, Taipa 999078, Macau","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5027250150"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"],"apc_list":{"value":2300,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2300},"apc_paid":{"value":2300,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2300},"fwci":2.713,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":12,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92530216,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"2021","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9706000089645386,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9706000089645386,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.9516000151634216,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12276","display_name":"Risk Management in Financial Firms","score":0.9258000254631042,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-crisis","display_name":"Financial crisis","score":0.7688583135604858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/index","display_name":"Index (typography)","score":0.5512852072715759},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.5247371792793274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shock","display_name":"Shock (circulatory)","score":0.49678829312324524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interest-rate","display_name":"Interest rate","score":0.4579867124557495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/granger-causality","display_name":"Granger causality","score":0.4456765651702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/panel-data","display_name":"Panel data","score":0.41117969155311584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4031069278717041},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-economics","display_name":"Financial economics","score":0.32010024785995483},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monetary-economics","display_name":"Monetary economics","score":0.2698797583580017},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomics","display_name":"Macroeconomics","score":0.16498389840126038}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778300220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q114380","display_name":"Financial crisis","level":2,"score":0.7688583135604858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.5512852072715759},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5247371792793274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781300812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178061","display_name":"Shock (circulatory)","level":2,"score":0.49678829312324524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175025494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179179","display_name":"Interest rate","level":2,"score":0.4579867124557495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129824826","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2630107","display_name":"Granger causality","level":2,"score":0.4456765651702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6422946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q857354","display_name":"Panel data","level":2,"score":0.41117969155311584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4031069278717041},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.32010024785995483},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.2698797583580017},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.16498389840126038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/5596384","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5596384","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/5596384.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:hin:complx:5596384","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/5596384.xml","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:4609b6e6796d4a55a4a6f7bd73095f31","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/4609b6e6796d4a55a4a6f7bd73095f31","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Complexity, Vol 2021 (2021)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1155/2021/5596384","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5596384","pdf_url":"https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/5596384.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S207319443","display_name":"Complexity","issn_l":"1076-2787","issn":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319869","host_organization_name":"Hindawi Publishing Corporation","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319869"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Hindawi Publishing Corporation"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Complexity","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","score":0.5799999833106995,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3154055680.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3154055680.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":23,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2738542616","https://openalex.org/W2789169334","https://openalex.org/W2791789604","https://openalex.org/W2796844313","https://openalex.org/W2810310253","https://openalex.org/W2810341044","https://openalex.org/W2889679159","https://openalex.org/W2897195973","https://openalex.org/W2897677083","https://openalex.org/W2903898092","https://openalex.org/W2906634483","https://openalex.org/W2945425596","https://openalex.org/W2949507415","https://openalex.org/W2974815444","https://openalex.org/W2988865325","https://openalex.org/W3000296312","https://openalex.org/W3005926833","https://openalex.org/W3020997669","https://openalex.org/W3026057412","https://openalex.org/W3027003065","https://openalex.org/W3046729690","https://openalex.org/W3121875835","https://openalex.org/W3123594716"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4251195004","https://openalex.org/W2127540830","https://openalex.org/W3146892535","https://openalex.org/W3122103894","https://openalex.org/W2109743056","https://openalex.org/W2047686615","https://openalex.org/W2390386547","https://openalex.org/W3124513043","https://openalex.org/W2383124327","https://openalex.org/W2944709951"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Based":[0],"on":[1,34,43,111],"the":[2,28,44,51,57,112,121,162,167,175,187,198,208,217,238,242,249,253],"research":[3],"of":[4,30,147,191,200,219,252],"currency":[5,79],"crisis":[6,10,16,40,80,84,89,115,194,223],"pressure":[7,11,17,25,41,47,60,76,81,85,90,96,116],"index,":[8,12,18,87,92],"bank":[9],"and":[13,36,56,93,133,140,159,197,248],"asset":[14],"bubble":[15,88],"this":[19,64],"paper":[20,65],"introduces":[21],"an":[22],"external":[23,94],"shock":[24,95],"index":[26,61,98,117,124],"reflecting":[27],"impact":[29,110],"global":[31],"economic":[32,244],"changes":[33],"economy":[35],"synthesizes":[37],"systemic":[38,58,74,113,192,221],"financial":[39,73,101,114,193,222],"based":[42],"above":[45],"four":[46,104],"indexes;":[48],"then,":[49],"all":[50],"alternative":[52],"early":[53,188,202],"warning":[54,189,203],"indicators":[55,105,204],"risk":[59,75],"constructed":[62],"in":[63,195,224,226,235,241,246],"were":[66,118],"tested":[67],"for":[68],"Granger":[69],"causality.":[70],"We":[71],"build":[72],"indexes,":[77],"including":[78],"(CCP)":[82],"banking":[83],"(BCP)":[86],"(PBP)":[91],"(ESP)":[97],"to":[99,185],"predict":[100,186],"crises.":[102],"Finally,":[103],"that":[106,216],"have":[107],"a":[108,145,220],"significant":[109],"selected,":[119],"namely,":[120],"stock":[122],"price":[123],"change":[125],"rate,":[126,131],"industrial":[127],"added":[128],"value":[129],"growth":[130,251],"domestic":[132,254],"foreign":[134,141],"real":[135],"deposit":[136],"interest":[137],"rate":[138],"differential,":[139],"direct":[142],"investment":[143],"as":[144],"percentage":[146],"GDP.":[148],"A":[149],"dynamic":[150,169,180],"Logit":[151,165,177,181],"model":[152,182],"with":[153,161,237],"lagging":[154],"binary":[155],"variables":[156],"is":[157,172,183,205,228,234],"constructed,":[158],"compared":[160],"traditional":[163],"static":[164,176],"line,":[166],"actual":[168],"fitting":[170],"effect":[171],"better":[173],"than":[174],"model.":[178,210],"The":[179,211],"used":[184],"status":[190],"2020,":[196],"forecast":[199],"various":[201],"realized":[206],"by":[207],"ARIMA":[209],"final":[212],"prediction":[213],"results":[214],"show":[215],"probability":[218],"China":[225],"2020":[227,247],"extremely":[229],"low,":[230],"almost":[231],"zero.":[232],"This":[233],"line":[236],"overall":[239],"improvement":[240],"international":[243],"situation":[245],"steady":[250],"economy.":[255]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
