{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4412901086","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3715928.3737483","title":"Political Prediction and the Wisdom of Crowds","display_name":"Political Prediction and the Wisdom of Crowds","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-07-29","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4412901086","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3715928.3737483"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/3715928.3737483","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3715928.3737483","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the ACM Collective Intelligence Conference","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065695849","display_name":"Rajiv Sethi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2631-5644"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1308548392","display_name":"Santa Fe Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/01arysc35","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308548392"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rajiv Sethi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Barnard College, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA and Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2631-5644","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Barnard College, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA and Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1308548392"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5060997328","display_name":"Julie Seager","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6798-3087"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63966007","display_name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/042nb2s44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Julie Seager","raw_affiliation_strings":["Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6798-3087","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63966007"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002709735","display_name":"Fred Morstatter","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0247-4328"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1174212","display_name":"University of Southern California","ror":"https://ror.org/03taz7m60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fred Morstatter","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0247-4328","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1174212"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036491837","display_name":"D. M. Benjamin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0333-5581"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I203088144","display_name":"Nova Southeastern University","ror":"https://ror.org/042bbge36","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I203088144"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Benjamin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0333-5581","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I203088144"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5118212391","display_name":"Anna Hammell","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98540497","display_name":"Barnard College","ror":"https://ror.org/04rt94r53","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anna Hammell","raw_affiliation_strings":["Barnard College, New York, NY, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8550-4522","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Barnard College, New York, NY, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037545814","display_name":"Tianshuo Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2454-1947"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98540497","display_name":"Barnard College","ror":"https://ror.org/04rt94r53","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tianshuo Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Barnard College, New York, NY, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2454-1947","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Barnard College, New York, NY, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5024581122","display_name":"Sachi Patel","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98540497","display_name":"Barnard College","ror":"https://ror.org/04rt94r53","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sachi Patel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Barnard College, New York, NY, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4185-1663","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Barnard College, New York, NY, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Ramya Subramanian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0953-4188"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98540497","display_name":"Barnard College","ror":"https://ror.org/04rt94r53","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ramya Subramanian","raw_affiliation_strings":["Barnard College, New York, NY, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0953-4188","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Barnard College, New York, NY, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98540497"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"214","last_page":"225"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11705","display_name":"Gambling Behavior and Treatments","score":0.9333999752998352,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3203","display_name":"Clinical Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11474","display_name":"Sport and Mega-Event Impacts","score":0.9047999978065491,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crowds","display_name":"Crowds","score":0.8786599040031433},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/politics","display_name":"Politics","score":0.6913516521453857},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5490477681159973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.40059226751327515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-security","display_name":"Computer security","score":0.31936097145080566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.3150300979614258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law","display_name":"Law","score":0.09740781784057617}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777852691","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q13430821","display_name":"Crowds","level":2,"score":0.8786599040031433},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.6913516521453857},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5490477681159973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.40059226751327515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.31936097145080566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.3150300979614258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.09740781784057617}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/3715928.3737483","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3715928.3737483","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the ACM Collective Intelligence Conference","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":32,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1562951788","https://openalex.org/W1578796163","https://openalex.org/W1972285379","https://openalex.org/W1978288528","https://openalex.org/W1984606044","https://openalex.org/W2002868076","https://openalex.org/W2011696830","https://openalex.org/W2015489921","https://openalex.org/W2034489173","https://openalex.org/W2069041001","https://openalex.org/W2091855602","https://openalex.org/W2109719716","https://openalex.org/W2128583885","https://openalex.org/W2128679496","https://openalex.org/W2146903694","https://openalex.org/W2150160077","https://openalex.org/W2157765479","https://openalex.org/W2319223726","https://openalex.org/W2761102845","https://openalex.org/W2944449625","https://openalex.org/W3097353471","https://openalex.org/W3122013492","https://openalex.org/W3122264531","https://openalex.org/W3124404638","https://openalex.org/W3159808052","https://openalex.org/W4205652790","https://openalex.org/W4256232447","https://openalex.org/W4283573881","https://openalex.org/W4388461534","https://openalex.org/W4393180108","https://openalex.org/W4400763628","https://openalex.org/W4401874168"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4391375266","https://openalex.org/W2899084033","https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W4240200267","https://openalex.org/W1511510665","https://openalex.org/W2154955495","https://openalex.org/W1524661185","https://openalex.org/W2078823605","https://openalex.org/W2500095415","https://openalex.org/W2097922264"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-07-14T23:27:15.235271","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}