{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4399364678","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3630106.3658942","title":"Escalation Risks from Language Models in Military and Diplomatic Decision-Making","display_name":"Escalation Risks from Language Models in Military and Diplomatic Decision-Making","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-06-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4399364678","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3630106.3658942"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/3630106.3658942","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3630106.3658942","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The 2024 ACM Conference on Fairness Accountability and Transparency","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3630106.3658942","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014151682","display_name":"Juan-Pablo Rivera","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130701444","display_name":"Georgia Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01zkghx44","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Juan-Pablo Rivera","raw_affiliation_strings":["Georgia Institute of Technology, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-4947-639X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Georgia Institute of Technology, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130701444"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074164083","display_name":"Gabriel Mukobi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7715-0717"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gabriel Mukobi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7715-0717","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059838123","display_name":"Anka Reuel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7913-9296"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anka Reuel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7913-9296","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090231346","display_name":"Max Lamparth","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6405-513X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Max Lamparth","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6405-513X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046099818","display_name":"Chandler Smith","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5410-0247"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12912129","display_name":"Northeastern University","ror":"https://ror.org/04t5xt781","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12912129"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chandler Smith","raw_affiliation_strings":["Northeastern University, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5410-0247","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Northeastern University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12912129"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006344978","display_name":"Jacquelyn Schneider","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7539-5615"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jacquelyn Schneider","raw_affiliation_strings":["Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7539-5615","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, USA","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":91.9189,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":42,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99934496,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"836","last_page":"898"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13007","display_name":"Economic Sanctions and International Relations","score":0.9921000003814697,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13007","display_name":"Economic Sanctions and International Relations","score":0.9921000003814697,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10994","display_name":"Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence","score":0.9491999745368958,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.9355000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.46661439538002014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-security","display_name":"Computer security","score":0.37369436025619507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","score":0.34425419569015503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.33964067697525024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.30115050077438354}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.46661439538002014},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.37369436025619507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.34425419569015503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.33964067697525024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.30115050077438354}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/3630106.3658942","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3630106.3658942","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The 2024 ACM Conference on Fairness Accountability and Transparency","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/3630106.3658942","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3630106.3658942","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The 2024 ACM Conference on Fairness Accountability and Transparency","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7300000190734863,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":42,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W13623815","https://openalex.org/W269086691","https://openalex.org/W609109865","https://openalex.org/W621270556","https://openalex.org/W1517621369","https://openalex.org/W1582090484","https://openalex.org/W1969449132","https://openalex.org/W1975728024","https://openalex.org/W1988886913","https://openalex.org/W2055743164","https://openalex.org/W2101218803","https://openalex.org/W2116378028","https://openalex.org/W2128786629","https://openalex.org/W2148167846","https://openalex.org/W2168267100","https://openalex.org/W2273902463","https://openalex.org/W2313369695","https://openalex.org/W2322576119","https://openalex.org/W2333018287","https://openalex.org/W2381436967","https://openalex.org/W2482647280","https://openalex.org/W2579466371","https://openalex.org/W2954270497","https://openalex.org/W3084130378","https://openalex.org/W3108784156","https://openalex.org/W3128352683","https://openalex.org/W3174102480","https://openalex.org/W4205623258","https://openalex.org/W4205724334","https://openalex.org/W4220985874","https://openalex.org/W4236204673","https://openalex.org/W4241182992","https://openalex.org/W4242582838","https://openalex.org/W4285139728","https://openalex.org/W4311991106","https://openalex.org/W4318040229","https://openalex.org/W4320342824","https://openalex.org/W4383098729","https://openalex.org/W4385494823","https://openalex.org/W4387344906","https://openalex.org/W4393937941","https://openalex.org/W4396897910"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4391375266","https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2390279801","https://openalex.org/W2358668433","https://openalex.org/W4396701345","https://openalex.org/W2376932109","https://openalex.org/W2001405890","https://openalex.org/W4396696052","https://openalex.org/W2382290278","https://openalex.org/W4395014643"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Governments":[0],"are":[1],"increasingly":[2],"considering":[3],"integrating":[4],"autonomous":[5,185],"AI":[6,21,34],"agents":[7,35,83,188],"in":[8,36,84,136],"high-stakes":[9],"military":[10,172,191],"and":[11,57,70,96,99,118,135,157,164,173,180],"foreign-policy":[12,174],"decision-making,":[13],"especially":[14],"with":[15],"the":[16,30,75,141,150,168],"emergence":[17],"of":[18,32,78,116,143,171],"advanced":[19],"generative":[20],"models":[22,104,125],"like":[23],"GPT-4.":[24],"Our":[25],"work":[26],"aims":[27],"to":[28,44,73,88,127,132,140],"scrutinize":[29],"behavior":[31],"multiple":[33],"simulated":[37],"wargames,":[38],"specifically":[39],"focusing":[40],"on":[41,54,101,162],"their":[42],"predilection":[43],"take":[45],"escalatory":[46],"actions":[47,79,156],"that":[48,108,124],"may":[49],"exacerbate":[50],"multilateral":[51],"conflicts.":[52],"Drawing":[53],"political":[55],"science":[56],"international":[58],"relations":[59],"literature":[60],"about":[61],"escalation":[62,76,117,120],"dynamics,":[63,130],"we":[64,147,176],"design":[65],"a":[66],"novel":[67],"wargame":[68],"simulation":[69],"scoring":[71],"framework":[72],"assess":[74],"risks":[77],"taken":[80],"by":[81],"these":[82],"different":[85],"scenarios.":[86],"Contrary":[87],"prior":[89],"studies,":[90],"our":[91],"research":[92],"provides":[93],"both":[94],"qualitative":[95],"quantitative":[97],"insights":[98],"focuses":[100],"large":[102],"language":[103,186],"(LLMs).":[105],"We":[106,122],"find":[107],"all":[109],"five":[110],"studied":[111],"off-the-shelf":[112],"LLMs":[113],"show":[114],"forms":[115],"difficult-to-predict":[119],"patterns.":[121],"observe":[123,158],"tend":[126],"develop":[128],"arms-race":[129],"leading":[131],"greater":[133],"conflict,":[134],"rare":[137],"cases,":[138],"even":[139],"deployment":[142],"nuclear":[144],"weapons.":[145],"Qualitatively,":[146],"also":[148],"collect":[149],"models\u2019":[151],"reported":[152],"reasoning":[153],"for":[154,189],"chosen":[155],"worrying":[159],"justifications":[160],"based":[161],"deterrence":[163],"first-strike":[165],"tactics.":[166],"Given":[167],"high":[169],"stakes":[170],"contexts,":[175],"recommend":[177],"further":[178],"examination":[179],"cautious":[181],"consideration":[182],"before":[183],"deploying":[184],"model":[187],"strategic":[190],"or":[192],"diplomatic":[193],"decision-making.":[194]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-08-18T07:49:30.821534","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}