{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4380885464","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3575813.3595204","title":"Loss-Customised Probabilistic Energy Time Series Forecasts Using Automated Hyperparameter Optimisation","display_name":"Loss-Customised Probabilistic Energy Time Series Forecasts Using Automated Hyperparameter Optimisation","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-06-16","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4380885464","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3575813.3595204"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/3575813.3595204","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3575813.3595204","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 14th ACM International Conference on Future Energy Systems","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047474927","display_name":"Kaleb Phipps","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9197-1739"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kaleb Phipps","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9197-1739","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073745910","display_name":"Stefan Meisenbacher","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9320-5341"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stefan Meisenbacher","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9320-5341","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5048040015","display_name":"Benedikt Heidrich","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1923-0848"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Benedikt Heidrich","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1923-0848","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035597795","display_name":"Marian Turowski","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3776-2215"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marian Turowski","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3776-2215","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001459055","display_name":"Ralf Mikut","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9100-5496"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ralf Mikut","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9100-5496","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014228448","display_name":"Veit Hagenmeyer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3572-9083"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Veit Hagenmeyer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3572-9083","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"271","last_page":"286"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11276","display_name":"Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics","score":0.9973000288009644,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10424","display_name":"Electric Power System Optimization","score":0.989799976348877,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.7811907529830933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hyperparameter","display_name":"Hyperparameter","score":0.7070024013519287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6576247215270996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-skill","display_name":"Forecast skill","score":0.5238597393035889},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hyperparameter-optimization","display_name":"Hyperparameter optimization","score":0.46175289154052734},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.4356013834476471},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.4330725073814392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/smart-grid","display_name":"Smart grid","score":0.4222736060619354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.32157981395721436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.14455357193946838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.1076948344707489},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/support-vector-machine","display_name":"Support vector machine","score":0.10064217448234558}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.7811907529830933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8642999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4171168","display_name":"Hyperparameter","level":2,"score":0.7070024013519287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6576247215270996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.5238597393035889},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10485038","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q48996162","display_name":"Hyperparameter optimization","level":3,"score":0.46175289154052734},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.4356013834476471},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4330725073814392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10558101","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q689855","display_name":"Smart grid","level":2,"score":0.4222736060619354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.32157981395721436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.14455357193946838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.1076948344707489},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12267149","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q282453","display_name":"Support vector machine","level":2,"score":0.10064217448234558},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119599485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43035","display_name":"Electrical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/3575813.3595204","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3575813.3595204","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 14th ACM International Conference on Future Energy Systems","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.5600000023841858,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325698","display_name":"Helmholtz Association","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":45,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1970071487","https://openalex.org/W1984113680","https://openalex.org/W2006398000","https://openalex.org/W2025720061","https://openalex.org/W2130715829","https://openalex.org/W2158840489","https://openalex.org/W2207659454","https://openalex.org/W2295598076","https://openalex.org/W2296521892","https://openalex.org/W2343702657","https://openalex.org/W2625224297","https://openalex.org/W2883265831","https://openalex.org/W2905343194","https://openalex.org/W2909436466","https://openalex.org/W2911402592","https://openalex.org/W2946130033","https://openalex.org/W2972425174","https://openalex.org/W2974046511","https://openalex.org/W2978345901","https://openalex.org/W2980994438","https://openalex.org/W2981640012","https://openalex.org/W2983460976","https://openalex.org/W2984451263","https://openalex.org/W2996173675","https://openalex.org/W2997591727","https://openalex.org/W3004008783","https://openalex.org/W3004891997","https://openalex.org/W3005001477","https://openalex.org/W3011590044","https://openalex.org/W3011829128","https://openalex.org/W3025325835","https://openalex.org/W3043330044","https://openalex.org/W3130387082","https://openalex.org/W3131092456","https://openalex.org/W3171884590","https://openalex.org/W3178756396","https://openalex.org/W3211037204","https://openalex.org/W4206922084","https://openalex.org/W4211021354","https://openalex.org/W4221160873","https://openalex.org/W4281612099","https://openalex.org/W4289517828","https://openalex.org/W4293195566","https://openalex.org/W4308016146","https://openalex.org/W4380879972"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2953665647","https://openalex.org/W4281646320","https://openalex.org/W4205712847","https://openalex.org/W3169687406","https://openalex.org/W4388119537","https://openalex.org/W3014750173","https://openalex.org/W3114025147","https://openalex.org/W4287818966","https://openalex.org/W3192751261","https://openalex.org/W3200811867"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"To":[0,34],"mitigate":[1],"climate":[2],"change,":[3],"renewable":[4],"energy":[5,12],"sources":[6],"are":[7,23],"increasingly":[8],"integrated":[9],"into":[10],"the":[11,50,146,170,210],"system.":[13],"Due":[14],"to":[15,25,85,122,192],"their":[16],"volatility":[17],"and":[18,30,37,55,75,116,141,168],"uncertainty,":[19],"smart":[20],"grid":[21,32],"applications":[22,45,64],"required":[24,88],"deal":[26],"with":[27,152,174],"this":[28],"uncertainty":[29,51,125,131],"maintain":[31],"stability.":[33],"operate":[35],"effectively":[36],"in":[38,52,126,196],"an":[39],"automated":[40,102,135],"manner,":[41],"each":[42],"of":[43,49,148],"these":[44,63,87],"requires":[46],"a":[47,93,112,117,127],"quantification":[48],"future":[53],"demand":[54],"generation,":[56],"which":[57],"probabilistic":[58,68,79,99,150,177,186],"forecasts":[59,80,100,151,173,187],"can":[60,189],"provide.":[61],"Furthermore,":[62],"often":[65],"require":[66],"specific":[67],"forecast":[69],"properties,":[70],"such":[71],"as":[72],"coverage":[73],"rate":[74],"sharpness.":[76],"However,":[77],"existing":[78],"cannot":[81],"be":[82,190],"easily":[83],"customised":[84,191,212],"exhibit":[86],"properties.":[89],"Therefore,":[90],"we":[91],"present":[92],"novel":[94],"approach":[95,162,184],"that":[96,182,188],"creates":[97],"loss-customised":[98,149,172],"using":[101],"hyperparameter":[103,136],"optimisation":[104,137],"based":[105,138],"on":[106,139,163,209],"custom":[107],"loss":[108,143,213],"metrics.":[109],"We":[110,159,180],"combine":[111],"deterministic":[113,128],"base":[114],"forecaster":[115],"conditional":[118],"Invertible":[119],"Neural":[120],"Network":[121],"include":[123],"specified":[124],"forecast.":[129],"This":[130],"is":[132],"defined":[133],"by":[134],"flexible":[140],"adaptable":[142],"metrics,":[144],"enabling":[145],"generation":[147],"different":[153],"properties":[154],"without":[155],"computationally":[156],"expensive":[157],"retraining.":[158],"evaluate":[160],"our":[161,183],"four":[164],"real-world":[165],"data":[166],"sets":[167],"compare":[169],"generated":[171],"three":[175],"state-of-the-art":[176,194],"forecasting":[178],"benchmarks.":[179],"show":[181],"generates":[185],"achieve":[193],"performance":[195],"either":[197],"Continuous":[198],"Ranked":[199],"Probability":[200],"Score,":[201],"Pinball":[202],"Loss,":[203],"or":[204],"Coverage":[205],"Rate":[206],"Error,":[207],"depending":[208],"selected":[211],"metric.":[214]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-07-14T23:27:15.235271","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
