{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3021009361","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3501714.3501735","title":"Probabilities of Causation: Three Counterfactual Interpretations and Their Identification","display_name":"Probabilities of Causation: Three Counterfactual Interpretations and Their Identification","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-02-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3021009361","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3501714.3501735","mag":"3021009361"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/3501714.3501735","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3501714.3501735","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306462769","display_name":"ACM eBooks","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319798","host_organization_name":"Association for Computing Machinery","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319798"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for Computing Machinery"],"type":"ebook platform"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Probabilistic and Causal Inference","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"type":"book-chapter","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108208924","display_name":"Judea Pearl","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161318765","display_name":"University of California, Los Angeles","ror":"https://ror.org/046rm7j60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Judea Pearl","raw_affiliation_strings":["","Cognitive Systems Laboratory Computer Science Department University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Cognitive Systems Laboratory Computer Science Department University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5108208924"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":6.8457,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":33,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97428599,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"317","last_page":"372"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9986000061035156,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9986000061035156,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9771999716758728,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11477","display_name":"Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics","score":0.9706000089645386,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1211","display_name":"Philosophy"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-thinking","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","score":0.8848241567611694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causation","display_name":"Causation","score":0.7827172875404358},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/citation","display_name":"Citation","score":0.7720381021499634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/identification","display_name":"Identification (biology)","score":0.6822256445884705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-conditional","display_name":"Counterfactual conditional","score":0.6441046595573425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5054421424865723},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inference","display_name":"Inference","score":0.44646477699279785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.3375585079193115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.2909948527812958},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/world-wide-web","display_name":"World Wide Web","score":0.2012840211391449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.15471020340919495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemology","display_name":"Epistemology","score":0.13336560130119324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/philosophy","display_name":"Philosophy","score":0.10904324054718018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-psychology","display_name":"Social psychology","score":0.0827568769454956}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.8848241567611694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166151441","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4923601","display_name":"Causation","level":2,"score":0.7827172875404358},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778805511","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1713","display_name":"Citation","level":2,"score":0.7720381021499634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116834253","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2039217","display_name":"Identification (biology)","level":2,"score":0.6822256445884705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71889745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783264","display_name":"Counterfactual conditional","level":3,"score":0.6441046595573425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5054421424865723},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.44646477699279785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.3375585079193115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.2909948527812958},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.2012840211391449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.15471020340919495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.13336560130119324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.10904324054718018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0827568769454956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59822182","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q441","display_name":"Botany","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":7,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/3501714.3501735","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3501714.3501735","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306462769","display_name":"ACM eBooks","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319798","host_organization_name":"Association for Computing Machinery","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319798"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Association for Computing Machinery"],"type":"ebook platform"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Probabilistic and Causal Inference","raw_type":"book-chapter"},{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt8h99z8sp","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","pdf_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt9nh0d6wj","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9nh0d6wj","pdf_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9nh0d6wj","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:qt8h99z8sp","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","pdf_url":"http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Pearl, Judea. (2000). Probabilities of Causation: Three Counterfactual Interpretations and their Identification. Department of Statistics, UCLA. UCLA: Department of Statistics, UCLA. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:qt9nh0d6wj","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9nh0d6wj","pdf_url":"http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9nh0d6wj","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Judea Pearl. (2011). Probabilities of Causation: Three Counterfactual Interpretations and their Identification. Department of Statistics, UCLA. UCLA: Department of Statistics, UCLA. Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9nh0d6wj","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.34.3955","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.34.3955","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.stat.ucla.edu/papers/preprints/272/272.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.52.5214","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.52.5214","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"ftp://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/R261.ps","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org/ark:/13030/qt8h99z8sp","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","pdf_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h99z8sp","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G848032724","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"Science","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337345","display_name":"Office of Naval Research","ror":"https://ror.org/00rk2pe57"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338279","display_name":"Air Force Office of Scientific Research","ror":"https://ror.org/011e9bt93"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3021009361.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3021009361.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":50,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W133789137","https://openalex.org/W164655249","https://openalex.org/W307716697","https://openalex.org/W1490576214","https://openalex.org/W1524326598","https://openalex.org/W1542746106","https://openalex.org/W1558819266","https://openalex.org/W1560639879","https://openalex.org/W1576238869","https://openalex.org/W1927040111","https://openalex.org/W1986994239","https://openalex.org/W2006538239","https://openalex.org/W2008312103","https://openalex.org/W2012357101","https://openalex.org/W2034557561","https://openalex.org/W2035142205","https://openalex.org/W2049910836","https://openalex.org/W2055904739","https://openalex.org/W2068434797","https://openalex.org/W2082299845","https://openalex.org/W2105557066","https://openalex.org/W2113236818","https://openalex.org/W2132917208","https://openalex.org/W2140882107","https://openalex.org/W2148976510","https://openalex.org/W2150291618","https://openalex.org/W2169071913","https://openalex.org/W2258394017","https://openalex.org/W2313581450","https://openalex.org/W2327850608","https://openalex.org/W2625446590","https://openalex.org/W2626958239","https://openalex.org/W3124658416","https://openalex.org/W4205423032","https://openalex.org/W4231221769","https://openalex.org/W4234119703","https://openalex.org/W4236228527","https://openalex.org/W4242356208","https://openalex.org/W4243976366","https://openalex.org/W4244576219","https://openalex.org/W4248835286","https://openalex.org/W4251822993","https://openalex.org/W4254795060","https://openalex.org/W4255847529","https://openalex.org/W6602568931","https://openalex.org/W6610432945","https://openalex.org/W6638284894","https://openalex.org/W6638421126","https://openalex.org/W6739710074","https://openalex.org/W6791741608"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2056582926","https://openalex.org/W3137864021","https://openalex.org/W4200271736","https://openalex.org/W2162910442","https://openalex.org/W2079879923","https://openalex.org/W2104420793","https://openalex.org/W3017854570","https://openalex.org/W2028689793","https://openalex.org/W2483499669","https://openalex.org/W2500483545"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"According":[0],"to":[1,102],"common":[2],"judicial":[3],"standard,":[4],"judgment":[5],"in":[6,131],"favor":[7],"of":[8,46,63,76,123,134],"plainti":[9,32],"should":[10,128],"be":[11,83,100,129],"made":[12],"if":[13,16],"and":[14,88,95,116,125],"only":[15],"it":[17],"is":[18],"\"more":[19],"probable":[20],"than":[21],"not\"":[22],"that":[23,51,105,114,126],"the":[24,28,31,49,74,132],"defendant's":[25],"action":[26],"was":[27,54],"cause":[29,60],"for":[30,48,137],"'s":[33],"damage":[34],"(or":[35,61,78],"death).":[36],"This":[37],"paper":[38,68],"provides":[39],"formal":[40],"semantics,":[41],"based":[42],"on":[43],"structural":[44],"models":[45],"counterfactuals,":[47],"probability":[50,75],"event":[52,65],"x":[53],"a":[55],"necessary":[56,77],"or":[57],"su":[58,79,117],"cient":[59],"both)":[62],"another":[64],"y.":[66],"The":[67],"then":[69],"explicates":[70],"conditions":[71],"under":[72],"which":[73],"cient)":[80],"causation":[81],"can":[82,99,109],"learned":[84],"from":[85,92],"statistical":[86],"data,":[87],"shows":[89],"how":[90],"data":[91],"both":[93,127],"experimental":[94],"nonex-":[96],"perimental":[97],"studies":[98],"combined":[101],"yield":[103],"information":[104],"neither":[106],"study":[107],"alone":[108],"provide.":[110],"Finally,":[111],"we":[112],"show":[113],"necessity":[115],"ciency":[118],"are":[119],"two":[120],"independent":[121],"aspects":[122],"causation,":[124],"invoked":[130],"construction":[133],"causal":[135],"explanations":[136],"speci":[138],"c":[139],"scenarios.":[140]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-04-16T08:26:57.006410","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}