{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3157180075","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3412841.3442030","title":"An analysis of Monte Carlo simulations for forecasting software projects","display_name":"An analysis of Monte Carlo simulations for forecasting software projects","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-03-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3157180075","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3412841.3442030","mag":"3157180075"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/3412841.3442030","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3412841.3442030","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 36th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064758898","display_name":"Pedro Morell Miranda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7678-9691"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182534213","display_name":"Universidade do Porto","ror":"https://ror.org/043pwc612","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Pedro Miranda","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Porto, Porto, Portugal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Porto, Porto, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001101188","display_name":"Jo\u00e3o Pascoal Faria","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3825-3954"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182534213","display_name":"Universidade do Porto","ror":"https://ror.org/043pwc612","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J. Pascoal Faria","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Porto, Porto, Portugal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Porto, Porto, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034098796","display_name":"Filipe Figueiredo Correia","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6653-1598"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182534213","display_name":"Universidade do Porto","ror":"https://ror.org/043pwc612","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Filipe F. Correia","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Porto, Porto, Portugal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Porto, Porto, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102902412","display_name":"Ahmed A. Fares","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7765-9597"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182534213","display_name":"Universidade do Porto","ror":"https://ror.org/043pwc612","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ahmed Fares","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Porto, Porto, Portugal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Porto, Porto, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041235792","display_name":"Ricardo Gra\u00e7a","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3944-607X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210157425","display_name":"Fraunhofer Portugal Research","ror":"https://ror.org/05eqk2j25","country_code":"PT","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210157425","https://openalex.org/I4923324"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ricardo Gra\u00e7a","raw_affiliation_strings":["Fraunhofer Portugal AICOS, Porto, Portugal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Fraunhofer Portugal AICOS, Porto, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210157425"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028638153","display_name":"Jo\u00e3o Mendes\u2010Moreira","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2471-2833"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182534213","display_name":"Universidade do Porto","ror":"https://ror.org/043pwc612","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jo\u00e3o Mendes Moreira","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Porto, Porto, Portugal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Porto, Porto, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5064758898"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182534213"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.2754,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.58249816,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1550","last_page":"1558"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10260","display_name":"Software Engineering Research","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10260","display_name":"Software Engineering Research","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12423","display_name":"Software Reliability and Analysis Research","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1712","display_name":"Software"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10430","display_name":"Software Engineering Techniques and Practices","score":0.994700014591217,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-method","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","score":0.8342101573944092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6498954892158508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/set","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","score":0.61632239818573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software","display_name":"Software","score":0.5109149813652039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-set","display_name":"Data set","score":0.4215797185897827},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.3481714427471161},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.2676299810409546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.2500153183937073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.14198017120361328}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19499675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232207","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","level":2,"score":0.8342101573944092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6498954892158508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.61632239818573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777904410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7397","display_name":"Software","level":2,"score":0.5109149813652039},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58489278","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172284","display_name":"Data set","level":2,"score":0.4215797185897827},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3481714427471161},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2676299810409546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2500153183937073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.14198017120361328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/3412841.3442030","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3412841.3442030","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 36th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:fraunhofer.de:N-637550","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://publica.fraunhofer.de/documents/N-637550.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400801","display_name":"Publikationsdatenbank der Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft (Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4923324","host_organization_name":"Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4923324"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Fraunhofer AICOS","raw_type":"Conference Paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:publica.fraunhofer.de:publica/411582","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://publica.fraunhofer.de/handle/publica/411582","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400318","display_name":"Fraunhofer-Publica (Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4923324","host_organization_name":"Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4923324"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"conference paper"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","score":0.6000000238418579}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8271089052","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NORTE-01-0247-FEDER-039887","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335322","funder_display_name":"European Regional Development Fund"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335322","display_name":"European Regional Development Fund","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":17,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1481776998","https://openalex.org/W1527514093","https://openalex.org/W2109368607","https://openalex.org/W2110815263","https://openalex.org/W2114914613","https://openalex.org/W2140246936","https://openalex.org/W2149548916","https://openalex.org/W2152570911","https://openalex.org/W2159010948","https://openalex.org/W2163099923","https://openalex.org/W2981731882","https://openalex.org/W3101562291","https://openalex.org/W4239510810","https://openalex.org/W4240144763","https://openalex.org/W4245428982","https://openalex.org/W4381989586","https://openalex.org/W6941214605"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2393870460","https://openalex.org/W2254578859","https://openalex.org/W2027108423","https://openalex.org/W1869907491","https://openalex.org/W1855666948","https://openalex.org/W2758561209","https://openalex.org/W1548095260","https://openalex.org/W2781711915","https://openalex.org/W2112817590","https://openalex.org/W1555291398"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasts":[0],"of":[1,46,88,104,112,129,138,146,163,168,177,183,193,201,204,217,219,231],"the":[2,17,35,44,85,97,102,110,118,144,161,215,229],"effort":[3,149,194,255],"or":[4,237],"delivery":[5,123,169,252],"date":[6,124,170,253],"can":[7],"play":[8],"an":[9],"important":[10],"role":[11],"in":[12,70,174,198,249,257],"managing":[13],"software":[14],"projects,":[15,259],"but":[16],"estimates":[18,74],"provided":[19,75],"by":[20,76],"development":[21],"teams":[22],"are":[23],"often":[24],"inaccurate":[25],"and":[26,61,72,109,254],"time-consuming":[27],"to":[28,73,106,160],"produce.":[29],"This":[30,41],"is":[31],"not":[32],"surprising":[33],"given":[34],"uncertainty":[36],"that":[37,242],"underlies":[38],"this":[39],"activity.":[40],"work":[42,105],"studies":[43],"use":[45],"Monte":[47,184,205,243],"Carlo":[48,185,206,244],"simulations":[49,245],"for":[50,126,251],"generating":[51],"forecasts":[52,66,125,150],"based":[53,83,134,153,187,208],"on":[54,84,120,135,154,188,209],"project":[55],"historical":[56,113,232],"data.":[57],"We":[58,92],"have":[59],"designed":[60],"run":[62],"experiments":[63],"comparing":[64],"these":[65],"against":[67],"what":[68],"happened":[69],"practice":[71,250],"developers,":[77],"when":[78,228],"available.":[79],"Comparisons":[80],"were":[81,132,151],"made":[82],"mean":[86],"magnitude":[87],"relative":[89],"error":[90],"(MMRE).":[91],"did":[93],"also":[94],"analyze":[95],"how":[96],"forecasting":[98,171,195,224,256],"accuracy":[99,225],"varies":[100],"with":[101],"amount":[103,111],"be":[107,247],"forecasted":[108],"data":[114,233],"used.":[115],"To":[116],"minimize":[117],"requirements":[119],"input":[121],"data,":[122],"a":[127,175,199,261],"set":[128,176,200],"user":[130],"stories":[131,140],"computed":[133,152],"takt":[136,189],"time":[137],"past":[139,164],"(time":[141],"elapsed":[142],"between":[143],"completion":[145],"consecutive":[147],"stories);":[148],"full-time":[155],"equivalent":[156],"(FTE)":[157],"hours":[158],"allocated":[159],"implementation":[162],"stories.":[165],"The":[166,191],"MMRE":[167,192,216],"was":[172,196,226,235],"32%":[173],"10":[178],"runs":[179,203],"(for":[180],"different":[181],"projects)":[182],"simulation":[186,207],"time.":[190],"20%":[197],"5":[202],"FTE":[210],"allocation,":[211],"much":[212],"smaller":[213],"than":[214],"134%":[218],"developers'":[220],"estimates.":[221],"A":[222],"better":[223],"obtained":[227],"number":[230],"points":[234],"20":[236],"higher.":[238],"These":[239],"results":[240],"suggest":[241],"may":[246],"used":[248],"agile":[258],"after":[260],"few":[262],"initial":[263],"sprints.":[264]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
