{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2607294868","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3051457.3053974","title":"MOOC Dropout Prediction","display_name":"MOOC Dropout Prediction","publication_year":2017,"publication_date":"2017-04-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2607294868","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3051457.3053974","mag":"2607294868"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/3051457.3053974","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3051457.3053974","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) ACM Conference on Learning @ Scale","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027788582","display_name":"Jacob Whitehill","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5851-312X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107077323","display_name":"Worcester Polytechnic Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/05ejpqr48","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107077323"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jacob Whitehill","raw_affiliation_strings":["Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107077323"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103747011","display_name":"Kiran Mohan","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107077323","display_name":"Worcester Polytechnic Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/05ejpqr48","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107077323"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kiran Mohan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107077323"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044751495","display_name":"Daniel Seaton","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801851002","display_name":"Harvard University Press","ror":"https://ror.org/006v7bf86","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I2801851002"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Seaton","raw_affiliation_strings":["Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801851002"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002595620","display_name":"Yigal Rosen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9389-743X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801851002","display_name":"Harvard University Press","ror":"https://ror.org/006v7bf86","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I2801851002"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yigal Rosen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801851002"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002798141","display_name":"Dustin Tingley","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2216-6293"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801851002","display_name":"Harvard University Press","ror":"https://ror.org/006v7bf86","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I2801851002"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dustin Tingley","raw_affiliation_strings":["Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801851002"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5027788582"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107077323"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":19.5965,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":101,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99256405,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"161","last_page":"164"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12127","display_name":"Software System Performance and Reliability","score":0.9577999711036682,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1705","display_name":"Computer Networks and Communications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12535","display_name":"Machine Learning and Data Classification","score":0.9545000195503235,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/clickstream","display_name":"Clickstream","score":0.8388221263885498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dropout","display_name":"Dropout (neural networks)","score":0.711562991142273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.705673336982727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.6185810565948486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/proxy","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","score":0.5706341862678528},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-regression","display_name":"Logistic regression","score":0.5163251757621765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.5145101547241211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/test","display_name":"Test (biology)","score":0.47139957547187805},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/training-set","display_name":"Training set","score":0.43334275484085083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/training","display_name":"Training (meteorology)","score":0.43131983280181885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/the-internet","display_name":"The Internet","score":0.1366877555847168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/world-wide-web","display_name":"World Wide Web","score":0.08092367649078369}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138744977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5132438","display_name":"Clickstream","level":5,"score":0.8388221263885498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776145597","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25339462","display_name":"Dropout (neural networks)","level":2,"score":0.711562991142273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.705673336982727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.6185810565948486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780148112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1432581","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.5706341862678528},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.5163251757621765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5145101547241211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777267654","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3519023","display_name":"Test (biology)","level":2,"score":0.47139957547187805},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51632099","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3985153","display_name":"Training set","level":2,"score":0.43334275484085083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777211547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17141490","display_name":"Training (meteorology)","level":2,"score":0.43131983280181885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110875604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q75","display_name":"The Internet","level":2,"score":0.1366877555847168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.08092367649078369},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127613066","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q557770","display_name":"Web API","level":4,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C130436687","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7978591","display_name":"Web modeling","level":3,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/3051457.3053974","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3051457.3053974","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) ACM Conference on Learning @ Scale","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Quality Education","score":0.46000000834465027,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":21,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W904241462","https://openalex.org/W1792679987","https://openalex.org/W1958618230","https://openalex.org/W1973398808","https://openalex.org/W1977948731","https://openalex.org/W2016757206","https://openalex.org/W2038558034","https://openalex.org/W2168585122","https://openalex.org/W2250880511","https://openalex.org/W2258103373","https://openalex.org/W2303415673","https://openalex.org/W2339386532","https://openalex.org/W2339810009","https://openalex.org/W2395088234","https://openalex.org/W2414670006","https://openalex.org/W2546314413","https://openalex.org/W2579564527","https://openalex.org/W2589744741","https://openalex.org/W2770392263","https://openalex.org/W2796327958","https://openalex.org/W3121643301"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1493153155","https://openalex.org/W2789872759","https://openalex.org/W2602387228","https://openalex.org/W4387607643","https://openalex.org/W2361208059","https://openalex.org/W2381394318","https://openalex.org/W2551249631","https://openalex.org/W2361091358","https://openalex.org/W2360698736","https://openalex.org/W2138956410"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0,59],"order":[1,60],"to":[2,15,54,61],"obtain":[3],"reliable":[4],"accuracy":[5,43,57,65,75],"estimates":[6],"for":[7,49],"automatic":[8],"MOOC":[9,37,126,150],"dropout":[10,38,79,111],"predictors,":[11],"it":[12],"is":[13,66,129],"important":[14],"train":[16],"and":[17,97,146],"test":[18,42],"them":[19],"in":[20,30],"a":[21,77,125],"manner":[22],"consistent":[23],"with":[24,132],"how":[25,64],"they":[26],"will":[27],"be":[28],"used":[29,48],"practice.":[31],"Yet":[32],"most":[33],"prior":[34],"research":[35],"on":[36,44,99,117],"prediction":[39,80],"has":[40],"measured":[41],"the":[45,69,74,100],"same":[46,101],"course":[47,102],"training,":[50],"which":[51,121],"can":[52,104,147],"lead":[53],"overly":[55],"optimistic":[56],"estimates.":[58],"understand":[62],"better":[63],"affected":[67],"by":[68],"training+testing":[70],"regime,":[71],"we":[72],"compared":[73],"of":[76,142],"standard":[78],"architecture":[81],"(clickstream":[82],"features":[83],"+":[84],"logistic":[85],"regression)":[86],"across":[87],"4":[88],"different":[89],"training":[90,96,110,134],"paradigms.":[91],"Results":[92],"suggest":[93],"that":[94],"(1)":[95],"testing":[98],"(\"post-hoc\")":[103],"significantly":[105],"overestimate":[106],"accuracy.":[107],"Moreover,":[108],"(2)":[109],"classifiers":[112],"using":[113],"proxy":[114],"labels":[115],"based":[116],"students'":[118],"persistence":[119],"--":[120,128],"are":[122],"available":[123],"before":[124],"finishes":[127],"surprisingly":[130],"competitive":[131],"post-hoc":[133],"(87.33%":[135],"v.~90.20%":[136],"AUC":[137],"averaged":[138],"over":[139],"8":[140],"weeks":[141],"40":[143],"HarvardX":[144],"MOOCs)":[145],"support":[148],"real-time":[149],"interventions.":[151]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":21},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":14}],"updated_date":"2026-05-16T08:24:45.110214","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}