{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2537406339","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2983323.2983868","title":"Modeling and Predicting Popularity Dynamics via an Influence-based Self-Excited Hawkes Process","display_name":"Modeling and Predicting Popularity Dynamics via an Influence-based Self-Excited Hawkes Process","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-10-24","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2537406339","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2983323.2983868","mag":"2537406339"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/2983323.2983868","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2983323.2983868","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 25th ACM International on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101687578","display_name":"Peng Bao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4970-9320"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I21193070","display_name":"Beijing Jiaotong University","ror":"https://ror.org/01yj56c84","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I21193070"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Peng Bao","raw_affiliation_strings":["Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21193070"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5101687578"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I21193070"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.5664,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":32,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.83945229,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1897","last_page":"1900"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13187","display_name":"Diffusion and Search Dynamics","score":0.995199978351593,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1312","display_name":"Molecular Biology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/13","display_name":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13187","display_name":"Diffusion and Search Dynamics","score":0.995199978351593,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1312","display_name":"Molecular Biology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/13","display_name":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11830","display_name":"Point processes and geometric inequalities","score":0.9739999771118164,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11152","display_name":"Stochastic processes and statistical mechanics","score":0.9441999793052673,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2610","display_name":"Mathematical Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/popularity","display_name":"Popularity","score":0.9491989612579346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/microblogging","display_name":"Microblogging","score":0.8252831697463989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.7760236263275146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-media","display_name":"Social media","score":0.6345598697662354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/process","display_name":"Process (computing)","score":0.5200240612030029},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.504388689994812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dynamics","display_name":"Dynamics (music)","score":0.4314618408679962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.3724570572376251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.35720789432525635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.35208648443222046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/world-wide-web","display_name":"World Wide Web","score":0.17090150713920593}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.9491989612579346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143275388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q92438","display_name":"Microblogging","level":3,"score":0.8252831697463989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.7760236263275146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518677369","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q202833","display_name":"Social media","level":2,"score":0.6345598697662354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.5200240612030029},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.504388689994812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145912823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113558","display_name":"Dynamics (music)","level":2,"score":0.4314618408679962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3724570572376251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.35720789432525635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.35208648443222046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.17090150713920593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24890656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82811","display_name":"Acoustics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/2983323.2983868","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2983323.2983868","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 25th ACM International on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/10","display_name":"Reduced inequalities","score":0.550000011920929}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":17,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1508765177","https://openalex.org/W1586211775","https://openalex.org/W1954020979","https://openalex.org/W2018984973","https://openalex.org/W2042034885","https://openalex.org/W2069849731","https://openalex.org/W2096135266","https://openalex.org/W2107383413","https://openalex.org/W2109742433","https://openalex.org/W2124689612","https://openalex.org/W2127267264","https://openalex.org/W2141250202","https://openalex.org/W2149260218","https://openalex.org/W2164067128","https://openalex.org/W2949377321","https://openalex.org/W3122471732","https://openalex.org/W3125952634"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2185014967","https://openalex.org/W2217604302","https://openalex.org/W2728430307","https://openalex.org/W2107786128","https://openalex.org/W2053241453","https://openalex.org/W2153980712","https://openalex.org/W2537388533","https://openalex.org/W2036556872","https://openalex.org/W2017590198","https://openalex.org/W2093123876"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Modeling":[0],"and":[1,38,53,144],"predicting":[2],"the":[3,31,34,39,55,68,75,83,105,120,130,139,145,149,153,162],"popularity":[4,35,59],"dynamics":[5,60],"of":[6,22,26,33,36,58,64,72,78,123,134],"individual":[7,109],"user":[8,79],"generated":[9],"items":[10],"on":[11,47,82,138,159],"online":[12],"social":[13],"networks":[14],"has":[15,85],"important":[16],"implications":[17],"in":[18,167],"a":[19,93,124],"wide":[20],"range":[21],"areas.":[23],"The":[24],"challenge":[25],"this":[27,89],"problem":[28],"comes":[29],"from":[30,148],"inequality":[32],"content":[37],"numerous":[40],"complex":[41],"factors.":[42],"Existing":[43],"works":[44],"mainly":[45],"focus":[46],"exploring":[48],"relevant":[49],"factors":[50],"for":[51],"prediction":[52,179],"fitting":[54],"time":[56,128],"series":[57],"into":[61],"certain":[62],"class":[63],"functions,":[65],"while":[66],"ignoring":[67],"underlying":[69],"arrival":[70],"process":[71,101,106],"attentions.":[73],"Also,":[74],"exogenous":[76,146],"effect":[77,133,147],"activity":[80],"variation":[81],"platform":[84],"been":[86],"neglected.":[87],"In":[88],"paper,":[90],"we":[91],"propose":[92],"probabilistic":[94],"model":[95,115,155,175],"using":[96],"an":[97],"influence-based":[98],"self-excited":[99],"Hawkes":[100],"(ISEHP)":[102],"to":[103],"characterize":[104],"through":[107],"which":[108],"microblogs":[110],"gain":[111],"their":[112],"popularity.":[113],"This":[114],"explicitly":[116],"captures":[117],"three":[118],"ingredients:":[119],"intrinsic":[121],"attractiveness":[122],"microblog":[125],"with":[126],"exponential":[127],"decay,":[129],"user-specific":[131],"triggering":[132],"each":[135],"forwardings":[136],"based":[137],"endogenous":[140],"influence":[141],"among":[142],"users,":[143],"platform.":[150],"We":[151],"validate":[152],"ISEHP":[154],"by":[156],"applying":[157],"it":[158],"Sina":[160],"Weibo,":[161],"most":[163],"popular":[164],"microblogging":[165],"network":[166],"China.":[168],"Experimental":[169],"results":[170],"demonstrate":[171],"that":[172],"our":[173],"proposed":[174],"consistently":[176],"outperforms":[177],"existing":[178],"models.":[180]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-03-21T08:13:44.787528","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}