{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2066049967","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2661829.2662055","title":"Predicting the Popularity of Online Serials with Autoregressive Models","display_name":"Predicting the Popularity of Online Serials with Autoregressive Models","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-11-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2066049967","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2661829.2662055","mag":"2066049967"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/2661829.2662055","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2661829.2662055","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM International Conference on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011825075","display_name":"Biao Chang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5181-2397"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I126520041","display_name":"University of Science and Technology of China","ror":"https://ror.org/04c4dkn09","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I126520041","https://openalex.org/I19820366"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Biao Chang","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China",", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049015446","display_name":"Hengshu Zhu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-643X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I126520041","display_name":"University of Science and Technology of China","ror":"https://ror.org/04c4dkn09","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I126520041","https://openalex.org/I19820366"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hengshu Zhu","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China",", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101744165","display_name":"Yong Ge","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8094-4180"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102149020","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Charlotte","ror":"https://ror.org/04dawnj30","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102149020"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yong Ge","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102149020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5048237545","display_name":"Enhong Chen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4835-4102"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I126520041","display_name":"University of Science and Technology of China","ror":"https://ror.org/04c4dkn09","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I126520041","https://openalex.org/I19820366"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Enhong Chen","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China",", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101862104","display_name":"Hui Xiong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6016-6465"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102322142","display_name":"Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey","ror":"https://ror.org/05vt9qd57","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hui Xiong","raw_affiliation_strings":["Rutgers, New Brunswick, NJ, USA","rutgers, New Brunswick, NJ, USA#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Rutgers, New Brunswick, NJ, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"rutgers, New Brunswick, NJ, USA#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5088038766","display_name":"Chang Wei Tan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8377-3241"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I126520041","display_name":"University of Science and Technology of China","ror":"https://ror.org/04c4dkn09","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I126520041","https://openalex.org/I19820366"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chang Tan","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China",", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Science and Technology of China, HeFei, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":", University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126520041"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":33,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1339","last_page":"1348"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11478","display_name":"Caching and Content Delivery","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1705","display_name":"Computer Networks and Communications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11478","display_name":"Caching and Content Delivery","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1705","display_name":"Computer Networks and Communications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10064","display_name":"Complex Network Analysis Techniques","score":0.9969000220298767,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10609","display_name":"Digital Marketing and Social Media","score":0.9896000027656555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/popularity","display_name":"Popularity","score":0.9185136556625366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.8057535886764526},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-model","display_name":"Autoregressive model","score":0.7480795383453369},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/metric","display_name":"Metric (unit)","score":0.6587520241737366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/star-model","display_name":"STAR model","score":0.5359939336776733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.4632128179073334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quality","display_name":"Quality (philosophy)","score":0.4467337131500244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/online-algorithm","display_name":"Online algorithm","score":0.4242938756942749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-modelling","display_name":"Predictive modelling","score":0.4237544536590576},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.3923993706703186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.391776978969574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.2358604073524475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.18453848361968994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/algorithm","display_name":"Algorithm","score":0.13980785012245178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.09021580219268799},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.08409008383750916}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.9185136556625366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.8057535886764526},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.7480795383453369},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176217482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860554","display_name":"Metric (unit)","level":2,"score":0.6587520241737366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194657046","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7394685","display_name":"STAR model","level":4,"score":0.5359939336776733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4632128179073334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779530757","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1207505","display_name":"Quality (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.4467337131500244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196921405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q786431","display_name":"Online algorithm","level":2,"score":0.4242938756942749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.4237544536590576},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3923993706703186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.391776978969574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.2358604073524475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.18453848361968994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.13980785012245178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.09021580219268799},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.08409008383750916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/2661829.2662055","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2661829.2662055","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM International Conference on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.705.9655","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.705.9655","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://staff.ustc.edu.cn/%7Echeneh/paper_pdf/2014/Biao-Chang-CIKM.pdf","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5142493491","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CCF-1018151","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337387","funder_display_name":"Division of Computing and Communication Foundations"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8184878164","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"1408085QF110","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334897","funder_display_name":"Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G854540278","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"61325010","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8584087660","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"IIS-1256016","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337389","funder_display_name":"Division of Information and Intelligent Systems"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8928360354","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2014AA015203","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321540","funder_display_name":"Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321540","display_name":"Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China","ror":"https://ror.org/027s68j25"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334897","display_name":"Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337387","display_name":"Division of Computing and Communication Foundations","ror":"https://ror.org/01mng8331"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337389","display_name":"Division of Information and Intelligent Systems","ror":"https://ror.org/053a2cp42"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":34,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1503398984","https://openalex.org/W1506806321","https://openalex.org/W1663973292","https://openalex.org/W1940047595","https://openalex.org/W1970777322","https://openalex.org/W1975014933","https://openalex.org/W1986633724","https://openalex.org/W1987986834","https://openalex.org/W1999514488","https://openalex.org/W2000213460","https://openalex.org/W2000574324","https://openalex.org/W2037970810","https://openalex.org/W2042034885","https://openalex.org/W2045989637","https://openalex.org/W2052602449","https://openalex.org/W2057496756","https://openalex.org/W2058743994","https://openalex.org/W2091317512","https://openalex.org/W2096135266","https://openalex.org/W2101196063","https://openalex.org/W2118519969","https://openalex.org/W2119114394","https://openalex.org/W2132910341","https://openalex.org/W2144256475","https://openalex.org/W2151667287","https://openalex.org/W2158261262","https://openalex.org/W2167117130","https://openalex.org/W2296319761","https://openalex.org/W2947626232","https://openalex.org/W3015420945","https://openalex.org/W3125952634","https://openalex.org/W3141863022","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4298270085"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2439807930","https://openalex.org/W2009692134","https://openalex.org/W1972271943","https://openalex.org/W2019155478","https://openalex.org/W2024529895","https://openalex.org/W2168175994","https://openalex.org/W1902630399","https://openalex.org/W2120434453","https://openalex.org/W3120578569","https://openalex.org/W1487412319"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Recent":[0],"years":[1],"have":[2,61],"witnessed":[3],"the":[4,28,77,103,125,143,155,159,164,176,189,215,222],"rapid":[5],"prevalence":[6],"of":[7,30,39,64,105,127,146,175,191,214],"online":[8,31,43,52,59,81,106,192,219],"serials,":[9,32],"which":[10,33,148],"play":[11],"an":[12],"important":[13],"role":[14],"in":[15,93,212],"our":[16],"daily":[17],"entertainment.":[18],"A":[19],"critical":[20],"demand":[21],"along":[22],"this":[23,91,94],"line":[24],"is":[25,83],"to":[26,141],"predict":[27],"popularity":[29,78,104,165,216],"can":[34,149,162],"enable":[35],"a":[36,84,98,115,133,173,182],"wide":[37],"range":[38],"applications,":[40],"such":[41,54],"as":[42,55,70,72,172],"advertising,":[44],"and":[45,87,209],"serial":[46,128],"recommendation.":[47],"However,":[48],"compared":[49],"with":[50,108],"traditional":[51],"media":[53],"user-generated":[56],"content":[57],"(UGC),":[58],"serials":[60,82,107],"unique":[62],"characteristics":[63],"sequence":[65],"dependence,":[66],"release":[67],"date":[68],"dependence":[69],"well":[71],"unsynchronized":[73],"update":[74],"regularity.":[75],"Therefore,":[76],"prediction":[79,152,217],"for":[80,101,187,218,230],"nontrivial":[85],"task":[86],"still":[88],"under-addressed.":[89],"To":[90],"end,":[92],"paper":[95],"we":[96,112,131,179],"present":[97],"comprehensive":[99],"study":[100],"predicting":[102],"autoregressive":[109],"models.":[110],"Specifically,":[111],"first":[113],"introduce":[114],"straightforward":[116],"yet":[117],"effective":[118,208],"Naive":[119],"Autoregressive":[120,138],"(NAR)":[121],"model":[122],"based":[123],"on":[124,197],"correlations":[126],"episodes.":[129],"Furthermore,":[130],"develop":[132],"sophisticated":[134],"model,":[135,140,178],"namely":[136,185],"Transfer":[137],"(TAR)":[139],"capture":[142],"dynamic":[144],"behaviors":[145],"audiences,":[147],"achieve":[150],"better":[151,226],"performance":[153],"than":[154,227],"NAR":[156],"model.":[157],"Indeed,":[158],"two":[160,198],"models":[161,206],"reveal":[163],"generation":[166],"from":[167],"different":[168],"perspectives.":[169],"In":[170],"addition,":[171],"derivative":[174],"TAR":[177],"also":[180],"design":[181],"novel":[183],"metric,":[184],"favor,":[186],"evaluating":[188],"quality":[190,231],"serials.":[193,220],"Finally,":[194],"extensive":[195],"experiments":[196],"real-world":[199],"data":[200],"sets":[201],"clearly":[202],"show":[203],"that":[204],"both":[205],"are":[207],"outperform":[210],"baselines":[211],"terms":[213],"And":[221],"new":[223],"metric":[224],"performs":[225],"other":[228],"metrics":[229],"estimation.":[232]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-07-14T23:27:15.235271","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}