{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2095207093","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2566486.2567984","title":"Modeling and predicting the growth and death of membership-based websites","display_name":"Modeling and predicting the growth and death of membership-based websites","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-04-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2095207093","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2566486.2567984","mag":"2095207093"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1145/2566486.2567984","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2566486.2567984","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on World wide web","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035917702","display_name":"Bruno Ribeiro","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3527-6192"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74973139","display_name":"Carnegie Mellon University","ror":"https://ror.org/05x2bcf33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Bruno Ribeiro","raw_affiliation_strings":["Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA","Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa., USA#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa., USA#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5035917702"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74973139"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":10.5442,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":80,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98780254,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"653","last_page":"664"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10064","display_name":"Complex Network Analysis Techniques","score":0.9993000030517578,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10064","display_name":"Complex Network Analysis Techniques","score":0.9993000030517578,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12592","display_name":"Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/grassroots","display_name":"Grassroots","score":0.8596442937850952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/popularity","display_name":"Popularity","score":0.8585341572761536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/the-internet","display_name":"The Internet","score":0.6786152720451355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.633513867855072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/work","display_name":"Work (physics)","score":0.4922570288181305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/internet-users","display_name":"Internet users","score":0.4662194848060608},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-media","display_name":"Social media","score":0.4662078320980072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rank","display_name":"Rank (graph theory)","score":0.41057324409484863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/world-wide-web","display_name":"World Wide Web","score":0.4074885845184326},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/internet-privacy","display_name":"Internet privacy","score":0.3677932322025299},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/advertising","display_name":"Advertising","score":0.36277541518211365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.3246745765209198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.31137531995773315},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.25657761096954346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.17656481266021729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.14585667848587036}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781188222","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929651","display_name":"Grassroots","level":3,"score":0.8596442937850952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.8585341572761536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110875604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q75","display_name":"The Internet","level":2,"score":0.6786152720451355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.633513867855072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.4922570288181305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019036681","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q75","display_name":"Internet users","level":3,"score":0.4662194848060608},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518677369","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q202833","display_name":"Social media","level":2,"score":0.4662078320980072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164226766","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7293202","display_name":"Rank (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.41057324409484863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.4074885845184326},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108827166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q175975","display_name":"Internet privacy","level":1,"score":0.3677932322025299},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112698675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37038","display_name":"Advertising","level":1,"score":0.36277541518211365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.3246745765209198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.31137531995773315},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.25657761096954346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.17656481266021729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.14585667848587036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114614502","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q76592","display_name":"Combinatorics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78519656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101333","display_name":"Mechanical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1145/2566486.2567984","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2566486.2567984","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on World wide web","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7071709828","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CNS-1065133","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337388","funder_display_name":"Division of Computer and Network Systems"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G948678646","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"W911NF-09-2-0053","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338295","funder_display_name":"Army Research Laboratory"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337388","display_name":"Division of Computer and Network Systems","ror":"https://ror.org/02rdzmk74"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338295","display_name":"Army Research Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/011hc8f90"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":60,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W35874363","https://openalex.org/W1490184557","https://openalex.org/W1598833883","https://openalex.org/W1968235203","https://openalex.org/W1972178529","https://openalex.org/W1979300931","https://openalex.org/W1984697813","https://openalex.org/W1990513740","https://openalex.org/W1995663809","https://openalex.org/W1999762141","https://openalex.org/W2000280231","https://openalex.org/W2009202666","https://openalex.org/W2009884847","https://openalex.org/W2010421807","https://openalex.org/W2019542451","https://openalex.org/W2031698600","https://openalex.org/W2038831956","https://openalex.org/W2041157860","https://openalex.org/W2042034885","https://openalex.org/W2058465497","https://openalex.org/W2068172675","https://openalex.org/W2069860303","https://openalex.org/W2069977841","https://openalex.org/W2070457089","https://openalex.org/W2085487226","https://openalex.org/W2089428042","https://openalex.org/W2099021783","https://openalex.org/W2102787760","https://openalex.org/W2108614537","https://openalex.org/W2109150831","https://openalex.org/W2114589588","https://openalex.org/W2118745042","https://openalex.org/W2119112721","https://openalex.org/W2146530408","https://openalex.org/W2150208547","https://openalex.org/W2151078464","https://openalex.org/W2151764066","https://openalex.org/W2155425465","https://openalex.org/W2155796078","https://openalex.org/W2156020699","https://openalex.org/W2159397589","https://openalex.org/W2169090121","https://openalex.org/W2256578114","https://openalex.org/W2432978112","https://openalex.org/W2500736686","https://openalex.org/W2965478150","https://openalex.org/W3099574146","https://openalex.org/W3105385534","https://openalex.org/W3125061297","https://openalex.org/W3125536004","https://openalex.org/W3125952634","https://openalex.org/W3125986590","https://openalex.org/W3164476913","https://openalex.org/W4207030330","https://openalex.org/W4237997615","https://openalex.org/W4246632162","https://openalex.org/W4293241248","https://openalex.org/W4298432362","https://openalex.org/W6650245104","https://openalex.org/W6678417202"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1979174323","https://openalex.org/W2007730130","https://openalex.org/W2947876715","https://openalex.org/W2270187681","https://openalex.org/W2042998190","https://openalex.org/W2000618435","https://openalex.org/W73001872","https://openalex.org/W4285465044","https://openalex.org/W2366611053","https://openalex.org/W1731610764"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Driven":[0],"by":[1,147],"outstanding":[2],"success":[3,26],"stories":[4],"of":[5,33,40,63,67,70,99,133],"Internet":[6,85],"startups":[7],"such":[8],"as":[9],"Facebook":[10],"and":[11,54,83,92,139],"The":[12,38],"Huffington":[13],"Post,":[14],"recent":[15],"studies":[16],"have":[17],"thoroughly":[18],"described":[19],"their":[20,123],"growth.":[21],"These":[22],"highly":[23],"visible":[24],"online":[25,76,81],"stories,":[27],"however,":[28],"overshadow":[29],"an":[30,128],"untold":[31],"number":[32,66],"similar":[34],"ventures":[35],"that":[36,49],"fail.":[37],"study":[39],"website":[41],"popularity":[42],"is":[43,144],"ultimately":[44],"incomplete":[45],"without":[46],"general":[47],"mechanisms":[48],"can":[50],"describe":[51,109],"both":[52],"successes":[53,91],"failures.":[55,93],"In":[56],"this":[57],"work":[58],"we":[59],"present":[60],"six":[61],"years":[62],"the":[64,111,141],"daily":[65],"users":[68],"(DAU)":[69],"twenty-two":[71],"membership-based":[72],"websites":[73,134],"-":[74,87],"encompassing":[75],"social":[77],"networks,":[78],"grassroots":[79],"movements,":[80],"forums,":[82],"membership-only":[84],"stores":[86],"well":[88,110],"balanced":[89],"between":[90],"We":[94],"then":[95],"propose":[96],"a":[97],"combination":[98],"reaction-diffusion-decay":[100],"processes":[101],"whose":[102],"resulting":[103],"equations":[104],"seem":[105],"not":[106],"only":[107],"to":[108,120],"observed":[112],"DAU":[113],"time":[114],"series":[115],"but":[116],"also":[117],"provide":[118],"means":[119],"roughly":[121],"predict":[122],"evolution.":[124],"This":[125],"model":[126],"allows":[127],"approximate":[129],"automatic":[130],"DAU-based":[131],"classification":[132],"into":[135],"self-sustainable":[136],"v.s.":[137],"unsustainable":[138],"whether":[140],"startup":[142],"growth":[143],"mostly":[145],"driven":[146],"marketing":[148],"&":[149],"media":[150],"campaigns":[151],"or":[152],"word-of-mouth":[153],"adoptions.":[154]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-04-04T16:13:02.066488","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}