{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7131830695","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2424922x2650004x","title":"Robustness Test for AI Forecasting of Hurricane Florence Using FourCastNetv2 and Random Perturbations of the Initial Condition","display_name":"Robustness Test for AI Forecasting of Hurricane Florence Using FourCastNetv2 and Random Perturbations of the Initial Condition","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7131830695","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2424922x2650004x"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1142/s2424922x2650004x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2424922x2650004x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210189353","display_name":"Advances in Data Science and Adaptive Analysis","issn_l":"2424-922X","issn":["2424-922X","2424-9238"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Data Science and Adaptive Analysis","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5120727144","display_name":"Adam Lizerbram","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26538001","display_name":"San Diego State University","ror":"https://ror.org/0264fdx42","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Adam Lizerbram","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6074-7867","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5127407184","display_name":"Shane Stevenson","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26538001","display_name":"San Diego State University","ror":"https://ror.org/0264fdx42","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shane Stevenson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1607-4122","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5120045255","display_name":"Iman Khadir","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26538001","display_name":"San Diego State University","ror":"https://ror.org/0264fdx42","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Iman Khadir","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7288-5047","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5127256168","display_name":"Matthew Tu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26538001","display_name":"San Diego State University","ror":"https://ror.org/0264fdx42","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matthew Tu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-0858-6036","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Samuel S. P. Shen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4535-4684"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26538001","display_name":"San Diego State University","ror":"https://ror.org/0264fdx42","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Samuel S. P. Shen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4535-4684","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26538001"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.64989197,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"17","issue":"04","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.8820000290870667,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.8820000290870667,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.09239999949932098,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13018","display_name":"Seismology and Earthquake Studies","score":0.0034000000450760126,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/robustness","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","score":0.7497000098228455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/storm","display_name":"Storm","score":0.6287000179290771},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/winter-storm","display_name":"Winter storm","score":0.3896999955177307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/initial-value-problem","display_name":"Initial value problem","score":0.3885999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gaussian-noise","display_name":"Gaussian noise","score":0.3855000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/noise","display_name":"Noise (video)","score":0.36570000648498535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gaussian","display_name":"Gaussian","score":0.36010000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weather-forecasting","display_name":"Weather forecasting","score":0.3517000079154968}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.7497000098228455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.6287000179290771},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.5813999772071838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4092999994754791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196937547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q75079023","display_name":"Winter storm","level":3,"score":0.3896999955177307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26955809","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10167591","display_name":"Initial value problem","level":2,"score":0.3885999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4199805","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2725903","display_name":"Gaussian noise","level":2,"score":0.3855000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3662000000476837},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99498987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2210247","display_name":"Noise (video)","level":3,"score":0.36570000648498535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163716315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q901177","display_name":"Gaussian","level":2,"score":0.36010000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.3517000079154968},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.3504999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187460315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q741507","display_name":"Severe weather","level":3,"score":0.3499000072479248},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.3490999937057495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13662910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q193139","display_name":"Trajectory","level":2,"score":0.34049999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29141058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8092","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.3197999894618988},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205537798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Extreme weather","level":3,"score":0.3147999942302704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.29499998688697815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118365302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4817115","display_name":"Atmospheric model","level":2,"score":0.27639999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C16910744","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7705759","display_name":"Test data","level":2,"score":0.2727999985218048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986577269","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11306265","display_name":"Random noise","level":2,"score":0.26080000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177918212","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q803623","display_name":"Perturbation (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.2533000111579895},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.25270000100135803}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1142/s2424922x2650004x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2424922x2650004x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210189353","display_name":"Advances in Data Science and Adaptive Analysis","issn_l":"2424-922X","issn":["2424-922X","2424-9238"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Data Science and Adaptive Analysis","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.5271271467208862}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1731478319","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NA24NESX405C0006-T1-01","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337784","funder_display_name":"NOAA Research"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3147987301","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"A22SEC4810016","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337784","funder_display_name":"NOAA Research"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G423691820","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"IIS 2324008","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337784","display_name":"NOAA Research","ror":"https://ror.org/02kgve346"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":6,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2150026075","https://openalex.org/W2809789958","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W3202800081","https://openalex.org/W4388654737","https://openalex.org/W4406890933"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Understanding":[0],"the":[1,65,72,79,102,123,150,153,183,195],"robustness":[2,37],"of":[3,38,61,75,97,148,175],"a":[4,191],"weather":[5,26,43,212],"forecasting":[6,44,213],"model":[7,56,124,151,184],"with":[8,94,115],"respect":[9],"to":[10,54,126,140,163,208],"input":[11],"noise":[12,63,99,142],"or":[13],"different":[14,59],"uncertainties":[15],"is":[16,204],"important":[17],"in":[18,64],"assessing":[19],"its":[20],"output":[21,57],"reliability,":[22],"particularly":[23],"for":[24,82],"extreme":[25],"events":[27],"like":[28],"hurricanes.":[29],"In":[30],"this":[31],"paper,":[32],"we":[33,70,112],"test":[34],"sensitivity":[35],"and":[36,100,107,120,157,170,187,206],"an":[39],"artificial":[40],"intelligence":[41],"(AI)":[42],"model:":[45],"NVIDIA\u2019s":[46],"FourCastNetv2":[47],"(FCNv2).":[48],"We":[49],"conduct":[50],"two":[51],"experiments":[52],"designed":[53],"assess":[55],"under":[58,138,145],"levels":[60,147,174],"injected":[62,176],"model\u2019s":[66,196],"initial":[67,73,118,181],"condition.":[68],"First,":[69],"perturb":[71],"condition":[74],"Hurricane":[76],"Florence":[77],"from":[78],"European":[80],"Centre":[81],"Medium-Range":[83],"Weather":[84],"Forecasts":[85],"(ECMWF)":[86],"Reanalysis":[87],"v5":[88],"(ERA5)":[89],"dataset":[90],"(September":[91],"13\u201316,":[92],"2018)":[93],"varying":[95],"amounts":[96],"Gaussian":[98],"examine":[101],"impact":[103],"on":[104],"predicted":[105],"trajectories":[106],"forecasted":[108],"storm":[109,155,168],"intensity.":[110],"Second,":[111],"start":[113],"FCNv2":[114,133,165],"fully":[116],"random":[117,180],"conditions":[119],"observe":[121],"how":[122],"responds":[125],"nonsensical":[127],"inputs.":[128],"Our":[129,202],"results":[130],"indicate":[131],"that":[132],"accurately":[134],"preserves":[135],"hurricane":[136],"features":[137],"low":[139],"moderate":[141],"injection.":[143],"Even":[144],"high":[146],"noise,":[149],"maintains":[152],"general":[154],"trajectory":[156],"structure,":[158],"although":[159],"positional":[160],"accuracy":[161],"begins":[162],"degrade.":[164],"consistently":[166],"underestimates":[167],"intensity":[169],"persistence":[171],"across":[172],"all":[173],"noise.":[177],"With":[178],"full":[179],"conditions,":[182],"generates":[185],"smooth":[186],"cohesive":[188],"forecasts":[189],"after":[190],"few":[192],"timesteps,":[193],"implying":[194],"tendency":[197],"toward":[198],"stable,":[199],"smoothed":[200],"outputs.":[201],"approach":[203],"simple":[205],"portable":[207],"other":[209],"data-driven":[210],"AI":[211],"models.":[214]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2026-02-28T00:00:00"}