{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2937762610","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s021952591950005x","title":"THE FAIR REWARD PROBLEM: THE ILLUSION OF SUCCESS AND HOW TO SOLVE IT","display_name":"THE FAIR REWARD PROBLEM: THE ILLUSION OF SUCCESS AND HOW TO SOLVE IT","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-05-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2937762610","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s021952591950005x","mag":"2937762610"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1142/s021952591950005x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s021952591950005x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S107361000","display_name":"Advances in Complex Systems","issn_l":"0219-5259","issn":["0219-5259","1793-6802","1793-9615","1793-9623"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Complex Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057002364","display_name":"Didier Sornette","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7874-7962"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I35440088","display_name":"ETH Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/05a28rw58","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799323385","https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"DIDIER SORNETTE","raw_affiliation_strings":["ETH Zurich Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"ETH Zurich Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007868427","display_name":"Spencer Wheatley","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5668-0215"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I35440088","display_name":"ETH Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/05a28rw58","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799323385","https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"SPENCER WHEATLEY","raw_affiliation_strings":["ETH Zurich Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"ETH Zurich Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034786643","display_name":"Peter Cauwels","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I35440088","display_name":"ETH Zurich","ror":"https://ror.org/05a28rw58","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799323385","https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"PETER CAUWELS","raw_affiliation_strings":["ETH Zurich Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"ETH Zurich Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35440088"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I35440088"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.6452,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95866064,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"22","issue":"03","first_page":"1950005","last_page":"1950005"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12137","display_name":"Economic theories and models","score":0.9950000047683716,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12137","display_name":"Economic theories and models","score":0.9950000047683716,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.9886000156402588,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9846000075340271,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/luck","display_name":"Luck","score":0.9013106822967529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meritocracy","display_name":"Meritocracy","score":0.73332279920578},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/outcome","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","score":0.5370371341705322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incentive","display_name":"Incentive","score":0.46290409564971924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.42749661207199097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/illusion-of-control","display_name":"Illusion of control","score":0.424887090921402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/positive-economics","display_name":"Positive economics","score":0.41262516379356384},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.3307259678840637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/microeconomics","display_name":"Microeconomics","score":0.26810747385025024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-psychology","display_name":"Social psychology","score":0.25127413868904114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemology","display_name":"Epistemology","score":0.1569705605506897}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61783943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1970348","display_name":"Luck","level":2,"score":0.9013106822967529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38377331","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178079","display_name":"Meritocracy","level":2,"score":0.73332279920578},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.5370371341705322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29122968","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1414816","display_name":"Incentive","level":2,"score":0.46290409564971924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.42749661207199097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148116889","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1065707","display_name":"Illusion of control","level":2,"score":0.424887090921402},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.41262516379356384},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3307259678840637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.26810747385025024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.25127413868904114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.1569705605506897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34447519","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179522","display_name":"Market economy","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1142/s021952591950005x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s021952591950005x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S107361000","display_name":"Advances in Complex Systems","issn_l":"0219-5259","issn":["0219-5259","1793-6802","1793-9615","1793-9623"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Complex Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:22:y:2019:i:03:n:s021952591950005x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S021952591950005X","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.6299999952316284}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":101,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W250524498","https://openalex.org/W621712182","https://openalex.org/W1496437928","https://openalex.org/W1497683313","https://openalex.org/W1499884726","https://openalex.org/W1532347882","https://openalex.org/W1553746973","https://openalex.org/W1567889822","https://openalex.org/W1590274302","https://openalex.org/W1598233245","https://openalex.org/W1651316286","https://openalex.org/W1698505133","https://openalex.org/W1969039856","https://openalex.org/W1969872310","https://openalex.org/W1970429298","https://openalex.org/W1974347236","https://openalex.org/W1975841531","https://openalex.org/W1980901287","https://openalex.org/W1987777080","https://openalex.org/W1989785787","https://openalex.org/W1993803315","https://openalex.org/W1995035875","https://openalex.org/W2003814254","https://openalex.org/W2008833310","https://openalex.org/W2010745216","https://openalex.org/W2018742491","https://openalex.org/W2018805474","https://openalex.org/W2019364974","https://openalex.org/W2020837601","https://openalex.org/W2021622496","https://openalex.org/W2022937888","https://openalex.org/W2023754051","https://openalex.org/W2036671379","https://openalex.org/W2049116880","https://openalex.org/W2054698589","https://openalex.org/W2060830753","https://openalex.org/W2062979871","https://openalex.org/W2067692845","https://openalex.org/W2067833766","https://openalex.org/W2075514521","https://openalex.org/W2077791698","https://openalex.org/W2088737409","https://openalex.org/W2091152488","https://openalex.org/W2102281803","https://openalex.org/W2106363968","https://openalex.org/W2107726111","https://openalex.org/W2115747715","https://openalex.org/W2118989259","https://openalex.org/W2120722175","https://openalex.org/W2121034459","https://openalex.org/W2129261459","https://openalex.org/W2134243390","https://openalex.org/W2135606128","https://openalex.org/W2135869163","https://openalex.org/W2143152597","https://openalex.org/W2144981148","https://openalex.org/W2147008239","https://openalex.org/W2154123408","https://openalex.org/W2156109180","https://openalex.org/W2164883547","https://openalex.org/W2170401832","https://openalex.org/W2259670296","https://openalex.org/W2293006825","https://openalex.org/W2293040502","https://openalex.org/W2465071734","https://openalex.org/W2477230684","https://openalex.org/W2477695133","https://openalex.org/W2491345699","https://openalex.org/W2527653252","https://openalex.org/W2735665560","https://openalex.org/W2752714680","https://openalex.org/W2765165152","https://openalex.org/W2788432705","https://openalex.org/W2800705832","https://openalex.org/W2803856832","https://openalex.org/W2810972374","https://openalex.org/W2887707050","https://openalex.org/W2894482755","https://openalex.org/W2903091364","https://openalex.org/W3101221933","https://openalex.org/W3102761397","https://openalex.org/W3121451334","https://openalex.org/W3122118888","https://openalex.org/W3122597312","https://openalex.org/W3122938238","https://openalex.org/W3123499776","https://openalex.org/W3123822217","https://openalex.org/W3161887345","https://openalex.org/W3165277122","https://openalex.org/W3208655394","https://openalex.org/W3217806404","https://openalex.org/W4211170237","https://openalex.org/W4212853637","https://openalex.org/W4230661391","https://openalex.org/W4236670843","https://openalex.org/W4237158659","https://openalex.org/W4238611226","https://openalex.org/W4243813765","https://openalex.org/W4253388879","https://openalex.org/W4292887282","https://openalex.org/W4365787967"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2507411988","https://openalex.org/W2779316276","https://openalex.org/W3196859642","https://openalex.org/W2519271705","https://openalex.org/W2937773471","https://openalex.org/W4296123607","https://openalex.org/W2742021240","https://openalex.org/W2579831466","https://openalex.org/W2078862610","https://openalex.org/W4248934415"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Humanity":[0],"has":[1],"been":[2],"fascinated":[3],"by":[4],"the":[5,106,131,146,149,160,173,199,205,211,237],"pursuit":[6],"of":[7,19,127,133,148,213,231],"fortune":[8],"since":[9],"time":[10],"immemorial,":[11],"and":[12,28,31,42,63,101,143,159,165,194,218,247,255,264],"many":[13,58,202],"successful":[14],"outcomes":[15],"benefit":[16],"from":[17,98],"strokes":[18],"luck.":[20],"But":[21],"success":[22,93,138,155],"is":[23,72,77,84,119,139,156,162,224],"subject":[24],"to":[25,40,45,163,185,216,260],"complexity,":[26],"uncertainty,":[27],"change":[29],"\u2014":[30,100,114,243,249],"at":[32,145],"times":[33],"becoming":[34],"increasingly":[35],"unequally":[36],"distributed.":[37],"This":[38,123,223],"leads":[39],"tension":[41],"confusion":[43],"over":[44],"what":[46,51],"extent":[47],"people":[48],"actually":[49],"get":[50],"they":[52],"deserve":[53],"(i.e.":[54],"fairness/meritocracy).":[55],"Moreover,":[56],"in":[57,88,95,201,220],"fields,":[59,82],"humans":[60],"are":[61,250,258],"overconfident":[62],"pervasively":[64],"confuse":[65],"luck":[66,99,118],"for":[67,204],"skill":[68],"(I":[69],"win,":[70],"it":[71,76,115],"skill;":[73],"I":[74,109],"lose,":[75],"bad":[78],"luck).":[79],"In":[80],"some":[81],"there":[83],"too":[85,121],"much":[86,154],"risk-taking;":[87],"others,":[89],"not":[90],"enough.":[91],"Where":[92],"derives":[94],"large":[96],"part":[97],"especially":[102],"where":[103],"bailouts":[104],"skew":[105],"incentives":[107],"(heads,":[108],"win;":[110],"tails,":[111],"you":[112],"lose)":[113],"follows":[116],"that":[117],"rewarded":[120],"much.":[122],"incentivizes":[124],"a":[125,214,262],"culture":[126],"gambling,":[128],"while":[129],"downplaying":[130],"importance":[132],"productive":[134],"effort.":[135],"And,":[136],"short-term":[137],"often":[140],"rewarded,":[141],"irrespective,":[142],"potentially":[144],"detriment,":[147],"long-term":[150],"system":[151,215],"fitness.":[152],"However,":[153],"truly":[157],"meritocratic,":[158],"problem":[161],"discern":[164],"reward":[166,175],"based":[167],"on":[168],"merit.":[169],"We":[170,197],"call":[171],"this":[172],"fair":[174],"problem.":[176],"To":[177],"address":[178],"this,":[179],"we":[180],"propose":[181],"three":[182],"different":[183],"measures":[184],"assess":[186],"merit:":[187],"(i)":[188],"raw":[189],"outcome;":[190],"(ii)":[191],"risk-adjusted":[192],"outcome,":[193],"(iii)":[195],"prospective.":[196],"emphasize":[198],"need,":[200],"cases,":[203],"deductive":[206],"prospective":[207],"approach,":[208],"which":[209],"considers":[210],"potential":[212],"adapt":[217],"mutate":[219],"novel":[221],"futures.":[222],"formalized":[225],"within":[226],"an":[227],"evolutionary":[228],"system,":[229],"comprised":[230],"five":[232],"processes,":[233],"inter":[234],"alia":[235],"handling":[236],"exploration\u2013exploitation":[238],"trade-off.":[239],"Several":[240],"human":[241],"endeavors":[242],"including":[244],"finance,":[245],"politics,":[246],"science":[248],"analyzed":[251],"through":[252],"these":[253],"lenses,":[254],"concrete":[256],"solutions":[257],"proposed":[259],"support":[261],"prosperous":[263],"meritocratic":[265],"society.":[266]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-06-26T08:34:08.712188","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
