{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2020422223","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218488505003564","title":"THE EXPERT'S CONFIDENCE VERSUS FUZZY PROBABILITY IN THE MEAN ACTIVITY TIMES COMPUTATION","display_name":"THE EXPERT'S CONFIDENCE VERSUS FUZZY PROBABILITY IN THE MEAN ACTIVITY TIMES COMPUTATION","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-08-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2020422223","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218488505003564","mag":"2020422223"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1142/s0218488505003564","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218488505003564","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S69518169","display_name":"International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems","issn_l":"0218-4885","issn":["0218-4885","1793-6411"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5018756112","display_name":"Salvador Cruz Rambaud","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1318-1221"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52354020","display_name":"University of Almer\u00eda","ror":"https://ror.org/003d3xx08","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52354020"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"SALVADOR CRUZ RAMBAUD","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de Direcci\u00f3n y Gesti\u00f3n  de Empresas, University of Almer\u00eda, La Ca\u00f1ada de San Urbano, s/n, Almer\u00eda, 04071, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de Direcci\u00f3n y Gesti\u00f3n  de Empresas, University of Almer\u00eda, La Ca\u00f1ada de San Urbano, s/n, Almer\u00eda, 04071, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52354020"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036480179","display_name":"Jos\u00e9 Garc\u0131\u0301a P\u00e9rez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7969-8194"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I52354020","display_name":"University of Almer\u00eda","ror":"https://ror.org/003d3xx08","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I52354020"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"JOS\u00c9 GARC\u00cdA P\u00c9REZ","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departamento de Econom\u00eda Aplicada,  University of Almer\u00eda, La Ca\u00f1ada de San Urbano, s/n,  Almer\u00eda, 04071, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departamento de Econom\u00eda Aplicada,  University of Almer\u00eda, La Ca\u00f1ada de San Urbano, s/n,  Almer\u00eda, 04071, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52354020"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I52354020"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.15480736,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":"04","first_page":"437","last_page":"452"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12177","display_name":"Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling","score":0.9994000196456909,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12177","display_name":"Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling","score":0.9994000196456909,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.992900013923645,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10050","display_name":"Multi-Criteria Decision Making","score":0.9789999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/supervisor","display_name":"Supervisor","score":0.7078924179077148},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fuzzy-logic","display_name":"Fuzzy logic","score":0.5752977132797241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5608789324760437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-distribution","display_name":"Probability distribution","score":0.49310991168022156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-value","display_name":"Expected value","score":0.48971131443977356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/value","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","score":0.4429868757724762},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computation","display_name":"Computation","score":0.4363473653793335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.36035341024398804},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.33035051822662354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.23644959926605225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.1631144881248474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/algorithm","display_name":"Algorithm","score":0.14670643210411072}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779110517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1240788","display_name":"Supervisor","level":2,"score":0.7078924179077148},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q224821","display_name":"Fuzzy logic","level":2,"score":0.5752977132797241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5608789324760437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.49310991168022156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141042865","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200125","display_name":"Expected value","level":2,"score":0.48971131443977356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4429868757724762},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45374587","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12525525","display_name":"Computation","level":2,"score":0.4363473653793335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.36035341024398804},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.33035051822662354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.23644959926605225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.1631144881248474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.14670643210411072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1142/s0218488505003564","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218488505003564","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S69518169","display_name":"International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems","issn_l":"0218-4885","issn":["0218-4885","1793-6411"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.49000000953674316,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":16,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W87921171","https://openalex.org/W1559241190","https://openalex.org/W1969788976","https://openalex.org/W1996820637","https://openalex.org/W1997806784","https://openalex.org/W2008032946","https://openalex.org/W2008209752","https://openalex.org/W2067783861","https://openalex.org/W2099413976","https://openalex.org/W2109512651","https://openalex.org/W2130876464","https://openalex.org/W2151500277","https://openalex.org/W2246069190","https://openalex.org/W2249632461","https://openalex.org/W3165743976","https://openalex.org/W4239186036"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4387731985","https://openalex.org/W2755149878","https://openalex.org/W2468425257","https://openalex.org/W2766238494","https://openalex.org/W847339734","https://openalex.org/W1523494361","https://openalex.org/W2105067139","https://openalex.org/W1930446896","https://openalex.org/W2017311532","https://openalex.org/W1012858801"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Traditionally":[0],"the":[1,13,24,40,46,50,55,63,85,98,126,135,139,149,158,161,165,171,177,183,186],"beta":[2,179],"distribution":[3,180],"has":[4,44,57,163],"been":[5,45],"used":[6],"due":[7],"to":[8,83,119,175,181],"its":[9],"ease":[10],"for":[11],"computing":[12],"mean":[14],"of":[15,31,39,42,48,52,62,72,80,87,94,128,138,188],"tasks,":[16],"times,":[17],"cash-flows,":[18],"etc.":[19],"because,":[20],"in":[21,58,68,122,133,148,153,164,173],"this":[22,143,154,189],"case,":[23],"expected":[25,140],"value":[26,168],"is":[27],"a":[28,88,115],"weighted":[29],"average":[30],"optimistic,":[32],"most":[33,166],"likely":[34,167],"and":[35],"pessimistic":[36],"values.":[37],"One":[38],"critiques":[41],"PERT":[43,150],"difficulty":[47],"introducing":[49],"level":[51],"confidence":[53,159],"that":[54,160],"expert":[56],"his":[59,120],"own":[60],"estimate":[61],"modal":[64],"value.":[65,141],"The":[66,105],"Belief":[67],"Fuzzy":[69],"Probability":[70],"Estimations":[71],"Time":[73],"(BIFPET)":[74],"model":[75,182],"uses":[76],"human":[77],"judgement":[78],"instead":[79],"stochastic":[81],"assumptions":[82],"determine":[84,176],"duration":[86],"project.":[89],"Thus,":[90,152],"each":[91],"supervisor":[92,172],"responsible":[93],"an":[95],"activity":[96],"specifies":[97],"three":[99],"values":[100],"with":[101],"their":[102],"respective":[103],"probabilities.":[104],"manager":[106,162],"accepts":[107],"these":[108,123],"probabilities":[109],"or":[110,125],"may":[111],"extend":[112],"them":[113],"within":[114],"certain":[116],"range,":[117],"according":[118],"belief":[121],"likelihoods":[124],"degree":[127],"control":[129],"exercised":[130],"by":[131,170],"himself":[132],"achieving":[134],"lower":[136],"bound":[137],"However,":[142],"approach":[144],"can":[145,194],"be":[146,195],"implemented":[147],"methodology.":[151],"paper,":[155],"we":[156],"introduce":[157],"supplied":[169],"order":[174],"specific":[178],"variable,":[184],"showing":[185],"advantages":[187],"intuitive":[190],"procedure":[191],"which":[192],"moreover":[193],"easily":[196],"implemented.":[197]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-05-21T06:26:12.895304","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
