{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4413997059","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218194025500548","title":"Dynamic Grade Prediction in Programming Education Using Time-Series XGBoost and SHAP Analysis","display_name":"Dynamic Grade Prediction in Programming Education Using Time-Series XGBoost and SHAP Analysis","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-09-04","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4413997059","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218194025500548"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1142/s0218194025500548","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218194025500548","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S131442419","display_name":"International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering","issn_l":"0218-1940","issn":["0218-1940","1793-6403"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091678223","display_name":"Jing Qiu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3264-1681"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1284762954","display_name":"Zhejiang A & F University","ror":"https://ror.org/02vj4rn06","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1284762954"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jing Qiu","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Mathematics and Computer Science, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, P. R. China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3264-1681","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Mathematics and Computer Science, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, P. R. China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1284762954"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102029060","display_name":"Chunmei Shi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6155-6147"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1284762954","display_name":"Zhejiang A & F University","ror":"https://ror.org/02vj4rn06","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1284762954"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chunmei Shi","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Mathematics and Computer Science, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, P. R. China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6155-6147","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Mathematics and Computer Science, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, P. R. China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1284762954"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5091678223"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1284762954"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.25615445,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"35","issue":"12","first_page":"1763","last_page":"1787"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14025","display_name":"Educational Technology and Assessment","score":0.9341999888420105,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11902","display_name":"Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Adaptive Learning","score":0.9147999882698059,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.6913077235221863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6259872913360596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.5836244821548462},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dynamic-programming","display_name":"Dynamic programming","score":0.47207072377204895},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.36926954984664917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.3202563524246216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/algorithm","display_name":"Algorithm","score":0.19023317098617554}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.6913077235221863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6259872913360596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5836244821548462},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37404715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380679","display_name":"Dynamic programming","level":2,"score":0.47207072377204895},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.36926954984664917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3202563524246216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.19023317098617554},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1142/s0218194025500548","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218194025500548","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S131442419","display_name":"International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering","issn_l":"0218-1940","issn":["0218-1940","1793-6403"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319815","host_organization_name":"World Scientific","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319815"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["World Scientific"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3200066268","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2021LFR048","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335944","funder_display_name":"Scientific Research Foundation of Zhejiang A and F University"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4850363419","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"61702140","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5609607096","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2021LFR031","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335944","funder_display_name":"Scientific Research Foundation of Zhejiang A and F University"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335944","display_name":"Scientific Research Foundation of Zhejiang A and F University","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":22,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2800700858","https://openalex.org/W2940725132","https://openalex.org/W2942204351","https://openalex.org/W2942853119","https://openalex.org/W3042071846","https://openalex.org/W3048335331","https://openalex.org/W3153516629","https://openalex.org/W3193293194","https://openalex.org/W4228996929","https://openalex.org/W4281398747","https://openalex.org/W4283826711","https://openalex.org/W4303627716","https://openalex.org/W4385819839","https://openalex.org/W4387113893","https://openalex.org/W4394689375","https://openalex.org/W4396928286","https://openalex.org/W4397033936","https://openalex.org/W4399223688","https://openalex.org/W4403603208","https://openalex.org/W4406019523","https://openalex.org/W4407236883","https://openalex.org/W4408969629"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2961085424","https://openalex.org/W4306674287","https://openalex.org/W4387369504","https://openalex.org/W4394896187","https://openalex.org/W3170094116","https://openalex.org/W4386462264","https://openalex.org/W3107602296","https://openalex.org/W4364306694","https://openalex.org/W4312192474","https://openalex.org/W4283697347"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"study":[1],"presents":[2],"a":[3,13],"time-series-based":[4],"machine":[5],"learning":[6],"approach":[7],"to":[8,22,104,157],"predict":[9],"final":[10],"grades":[11],"in":[12,64,82],"C":[14],"programming":[15],"course,":[16],"leveraging":[17],"temporal":[18],"and":[19,29,38,53,113,131,141,154,161],"behavioral":[20],"features":[21,153],"support":[23],"early":[24],"intervention.":[25],"We":[26],"evaluated":[27],"classification":[28],"regression":[30],"models":[31],"using":[32],"three-class":[33,66,136],"(Needs":[34],"Improvement,":[35],"Average,":[36,42],"Excellent)":[37,44],"five-class":[39,74,143],"(Fail,":[40],"Poor,":[41],"Good,":[43],"grading":[45],"schemes,":[46],"addressing":[47],"class":[48,62,93],"imbalance":[49],"with":[50,68,134],"RandomOverSampler,":[51],"SMOTE":[52],"ADASYN.":[54],"Advanced":[55],"sampling":[56],"strategies,":[57],"particularly":[58],"SMOTE,":[59],"enhanced":[60],"minority":[61],"prediction":[63,160],"the":[65,127,135,142],"scheme,":[67],"XGBoost":[69],"achieving":[70],"superior":[71],"performance.":[72],"The":[73],"scheme":[75,137,144],"offered":[76],"finer":[77],"granularity,":[78],"revealing":[79],"nuanced":[80,146],"patterns":[81],"mid-tier":[83],"performance":[84],"through":[85],"practice-related":[86],"features,":[87],"but":[88],"faced":[89],"challenges":[90],"from":[91],"increased":[92],"imbalance.":[94],"Regression":[95],"models,":[96],"while":[97],"suitable":[98],"for":[99,122],"continuous":[100],"prediction,":[101,133],"underperformed":[102],"due":[103],"thresholding":[105],"biases.":[106],"SHAP":[107],"analysis":[108],"identified":[109],"historical":[110],"average":[111],"score":[112,115],"difficulty-adjusted":[114],"as":[116],"key":[117],"predictors,":[118],"providing":[119],"actionable":[120],"insights":[121],"educators.":[123],"These":[124],"findings":[125],"highlight":[126],"trade-offs":[128],"between":[129],"broad":[130],"fine-grained":[132,159],"supporting":[138],"robust":[139],"interventions":[140],"enabling":[145],"feedback.":[147],"Future":[148],"work":[149],"includes":[150],"incorporating":[151],"qualitative":[152],"hybrid":[155],"approaches":[156],"improve":[158],"generalizability":[162],"across":[163],"educational":[164],"contexts.":[165]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2025-11-27T01:12:40.094763","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
