{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4413932988","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","title":"Is it getting harder to make a hit? Evidence from 65 years of US music chart history","display_name":"Is it getting harder to make a hit? Evidence from 65 years of US music chart history","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-09-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4413932988","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","pdf_url":"https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2504380752","display_name":"EPJ Data Science","issn_l":"2193-1127","issn":["2193-1127"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"EPJ Data Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5098446450","display_name":"Marta Ewa Lech","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I96673099","display_name":"Technical University of Denmark","ror":"https://ror.org/04qtj9h94","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I96673099"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marta Ewa Lech","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I96673099"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5098358909","display_name":"Sune Lehmann","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I124055696","display_name":"University of Copenhagen","ror":"https://ror.org/035b05819","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124055696"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I96673099","display_name":"Technical University of Denmark","ror":"https://ror.org/04qtj9h94","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I96673099"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sune Lehmann","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark","Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I124055696"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I96673099"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031780796","display_name":"Jonas L. Juul","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5728-9269"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I124055696","display_name":"University of Copenhagen","ror":"https://ror.org/035b05819","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124055696"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83467386","display_name":"IT University of Copenhagen","ror":"https://ror.org/02309jg23","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83467386"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I96673099","display_name":"Technical University of Denmark","ror":"https://ror.org/04qtj9h94","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I96673099"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jonas L. Juul","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark","Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark","Department of Computer Science, IT University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I124055696"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I96673099"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, IT University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I83467386"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":1190,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":1459},"apc_paid":{"value":1190,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":1459},"fwci":3.0052,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91815039,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"1","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11161","display_name":"Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing","score":0.9769999980926514,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1406","display_name":"Marketing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11161","display_name":"Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing","score":0.9769999980926514,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1406","display_name":"Marketing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11113","display_name":"Music History and Culture","score":0.9742000102996826,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1210","display_name":"Music"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13342","display_name":"Art History and Market Analysis","score":0.9606999754905701,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1213","display_name":"Visual Arts and Performing Arts"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/12","display_name":"Arts and Humanities"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chart","display_name":"Chart","score":0.7132270336151123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4993858337402344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/history","display_name":"History","score":0.35463255643844604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.1891598105430603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.16495683789253235}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C190812933","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28923","display_name":"Chart","level":2,"score":0.7132270336151123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4993858337402344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95457728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q309","display_name":"History","level":0,"score":0.35463255643844604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.1891598105430603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.16495683789253235}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","pdf_url":"https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2504380752","display_name":"EPJ Data Science","issn_l":"2193-1127","issn":["2193-1127"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"EPJ Data Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:openaire/07976b93-8a7c-48f3-9f30-3bd85e0a3900","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pure.itu.dk/portal/da/publications/07976b93-8a7c-48f3-9f30-3bd85e0a3900","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196680","display_name":"IT University Of Copenhagen (IT University of Copenhagen)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I83467386","host_organization_name":"IT University of Copenhagen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83467386"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Lech, M E, Lehmann, S & Juul, J L 2025, 'Is it getting harder to make a hit? Evidence from 65 years of US music chart history', EPJ Data Science, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 67. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:5858c8075aef44448acc7fac09d22748","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/5858c8075aef44448acc7fac09d22748","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"EPJ Data Science, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","pdf_url":"https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2504380752","display_name":"EPJ Data Science","issn_l":"2193-1127","issn":["2193-1127"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"EPJ Data Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1027391757","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CF21-0342","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321504","funder_display_name":"Carlsbergfondet"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310490","display_name":"Villum Fonden","ror":"https://ror.org/007ww2d15"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321504","display_name":"Carlsbergfondet","ror":"https://ror.org/01kpjmx04"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322928","display_name":"Danmarks Frie Forskningsfond","ror":"https://ror.org/02sptwz63"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4413932988.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4413932988.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":37,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W196357788","https://openalex.org/W1576344996","https://openalex.org/W1792834658","https://openalex.org/W1897276574","https://openalex.org/W1964999731","https://openalex.org/W2008620264","https://openalex.org/W2017699327","https://openalex.org/W2056471696","https://openalex.org/W2115396357","https://openalex.org/W2147453867","https://openalex.org/W2148117599","https://openalex.org/W2795875436","https://openalex.org/W2803235822","https://openalex.org/W2887071327","https://openalex.org/W2899748628","https://openalex.org/W2902096938","https://openalex.org/W2908116483","https://openalex.org/W2939088842","https://openalex.org/W2963516646","https://openalex.org/W2963540312","https://openalex.org/W2971345434","https://openalex.org/W2994907129","https://openalex.org/W3011233455","https://openalex.org/W3013697652","https://openalex.org/W3032200391","https://openalex.org/W3042156163","https://openalex.org/W3094462788","https://openalex.org/W3111504971","https://openalex.org/W3122962266","https://openalex.org/W3124163687","https://openalex.org/W3124392856","https://openalex.org/W3125455309","https://openalex.org/W3125944471","https://openalex.org/W4220652835","https://openalex.org/W4220656825","https://openalex.org/W4255173720","https://openalex.org/W4300470469"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4391375266","https://openalex.org/W2899084033","https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2390279801","https://openalex.org/W4391913857","https://openalex.org/W2358668433","https://openalex.org/W4396701345","https://openalex.org/W2376932109","https://openalex.org/W2001405890","https://openalex.org/W4396696052"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Since":[1,25],"the":[2,5,13,20,28,41,58,77,90,93,102,111,122,129,142,145,157,165,191,197,203,214,248,260,296],"creation":[3],"of":[4,23,36,43,92,184,247,262],"Billboard":[6,94],"Hot":[7,95],"100":[8,96],"music":[9,21,32,47,59,287],"chart":[10,14,29,84,97,123,139,198,215,229],"in":[11,105,108,110,128,259,281,284,295],"1958,":[12,106],"has":[15,30,161,199],"been":[16,81],"a":[17,72],"window":[18],"into":[19,213,242],"consumption":[22,33],"Americans.":[24],"its":[26],"introduction,":[27],"documented":[31,269],"through":[34],"eras":[35],"globalization,":[37],"economic":[38],"growth,":[39],"and":[40,144,164,180,190,216,278],"emergence":[42],"new":[44,209],"technologies":[45],"for":[46,151],"listening.":[48],"In":[49,205],"recent":[50,206,266,285],"years,":[51,207,286],"artists":[52,210],"have":[53,79,98,136,231,268],"voiced":[54],"their":[55,138,149],"worry":[56],"that":[57,65,89,133,237,270,294],"world":[60],"is":[61,67],"changing:":[62],"Many":[63],"claim":[64],"it":[66,212],"getting":[68],"harder":[69],"to":[70,290],"make":[71,211],"hit.":[73],"Until":[74],"now,":[75],"however,":[76],"claims":[78],"not":[80],"backed":[82],"using":[83],"data.":[85],"Here":[86],"we":[87,131,235],"show":[88,132,236],"dynamics":[91],"changed":[99,201,232],"significantly":[100],"since":[101,141],"chart\u2019s":[103],"founding":[104],"and,":[107],"particular,":[109],"past":[112],"15":[113],"years.":[114],"Whereas":[115,265],"most":[116],"songs":[117,126,135,147,167],"spend":[118],"less":[119],"time":[120,249],"on":[121],"now":[124,293],"than":[125,154,172],"did":[127],"past,":[130],"top-1":[134],"tripled":[137],"lifetime":[140],"1960s,":[143],"highest-ranked":[146],"maintain":[148],"positions":[150,218],"far":[152],"longer":[153,292],"previously.":[155],"At":[156],"same":[158],"time,":[159,234],"churn":[160],"increased":[162],"drastically,":[163],"lowest-ranked":[166],"are":[168,219,257],"replaced":[169],"more":[170,217],"frequently":[171],"ever.":[173],"Together,":[174],"these":[175],"observations":[176],"support":[177],"two":[178],"competing":[179],"seemingly":[181],"contradictory":[182],"theories":[183],"digital":[185],"markets:":[186],"The":[187],"Winner-takes-all":[188],"theory":[189],"Long":[192],"Tail":[193],"theory.":[194],"Who":[195],"occupies":[196],"also":[200],"over":[202,233],"years:":[204],"fewer":[208],"occupied":[220],"by":[221],"established":[222],"hit":[223],"makers.":[224],"Finally,":[225],"investigating":[226],"how":[227],"song":[228,239],"trajectories":[230,240],"historical":[238],"cluster":[241],"clear":[243],"trajectory":[244],"archetypes":[245],"characteristic":[246],"period":[250],"they":[251],"were":[252],"part":[253],"of.":[254],"Our":[255],"results":[256],"interesting":[258],"context":[261],"collective":[263],"attention:":[264],"studies":[267],"other":[271],"cultural":[272],"products":[273],"such":[274],"as":[275],"books,":[276],"news,":[277],"movies":[279],"fade":[280],"popularity":[282],"quicker":[283],"hits":[288],"seem":[289],"last":[291],"past.":[297]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}