{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4415385237","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.70100","title":"Probabilistic risk assessment framework for cost overruns predictions in infrastructure projects using randomized simulations","display_name":"Probabilistic risk assessment framework for cost overruns predictions in infrastructure projects using randomized simulations","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-10-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4415385237","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.70100"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/mice.70100","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.70100","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/mice.70100","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S206927758","display_name":"Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering","issn_l":"1093-9687","issn":["1093-9687","1467-8667"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/mice.70100","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021005627","display_name":"Rubina Canesi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5399-3582"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I138689650","display_name":"University of Padua","ror":"https://ror.org/00240q980","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Rubina Canesi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil, University of Padova, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (ICEA), Padua, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5399-3582","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil, University of Padova, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (ICEA), Padua, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075622879","display_name":"Laura Gabrielli","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7233-6935"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I201324441","display_name":"University of Ferrara","ror":"https://ror.org/041zkgm14","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201324441"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Laura Gabrielli","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Architecture, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7233-6935","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Architecture, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I201324441"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5015685006","display_name":"Giuliano Marella","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7379-2884"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I138689650","display_name":"University of Padua","ror":"https://ror.org/00240q980","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Giuliano Marella","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil, University of Padova, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (ICEA), Padua, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7379-2884","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil, University of Padova, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (ICEA), Padua, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056275843","display_name":"Aurora Greta Ruggeri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1071-3269"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I138689650","display_name":"University of Padua","ror":"https://ror.org/00240q980","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Aurora Greta Ruggeri","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil, University of Padova, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (ICEA), Padua, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1071-3269","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil, University of Padova, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (ICEA), Padua, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5021005627"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"],"apc_list":{"value":5230,"currency":"USD","value_usd":5230},"apc_paid":{"value":5230,"currency":"USD","value_usd":5230},"fwci":1.9706,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.88302143,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"40","issue":"27","first_page":"4774","last_page":"4796"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.9983000159263611,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.9983000159263611,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11006","display_name":"BIM and Construction Integration","score":0.9914000034332275,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11606","display_name":"Infrastructure Maintenance and Monitoring","score":0.9724000096321106,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2205","display_name":"Civil and Structural Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6854000091552734},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-method","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","score":0.6445000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-assessment","display_name":"Risk assessment","score":0.5927000045776367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interdependence","display_name":"Interdependence","score":0.5121999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-management","display_name":"Risk management","score":0.5044000148773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-estimate","display_name":"Cost estimate","score":0.48739999532699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-risk-assessment","display_name":"Probabilistic risk assessment","score":0.4595000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","score":0.4018999934196472}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6854000091552734},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19499675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232207","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","level":2,"score":0.6445000171661377},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5932000279426575},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12174686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk assessment","level":2,"score":0.5927000045776367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.5579000115394592},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185874996","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q269699","display_name":"Interdependence","level":2,"score":0.5121999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32896092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189447","display_name":"Risk management","level":2,"score":0.5044000148773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93983250","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q795053","display_name":"Cost estimate","level":2,"score":0.48739999532699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73722673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1082833","display_name":"Probabilistic risk assessment","level":3,"score":0.4595000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200601418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2193887","display_name":"Reliability engineering","level":1,"score":0.4235999882221222},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.4018999934196472},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.38690000772476196},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.3578999936580658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27759463","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5174763","display_name":"Cost contingency","level":4,"score":0.32839998602867126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127454912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q942582","display_name":"Cost\u2013benefit analysis","level":2,"score":0.30970001220703125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177803969","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29205","display_name":"Uncertainty analysis","level":2,"score":0.2842000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.2822999954223633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C52421305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1151499","display_name":"Particle filter","level":3,"score":0.2639000117778778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.2639000117778778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.2623000144958496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18785705","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931373","display_name":"Scenario analysis","level":2,"score":0.258899986743927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164403151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7336280","display_name":"Risk management framework","level":4,"score":0.2565000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.250900000333786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.250900000333786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776164183","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2682100","display_name":"Cost overrun","level":3,"score":0.250900000333786}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/mice.70100","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.70100","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/mice.70100","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S206927758","display_name":"Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering","issn_l":"1093-9687","issn":["1093-9687","1467-8667"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:sfera.unife.it:11392/2613839","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11392/2613839","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400369","display_name":"Institutional Research Information System University of Ferrara (University of Ferrara)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I201324441","host_organization_name":"University of Ferrara","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201324441"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:www.research.unipd.it:11577/3587679","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11577/3587679","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402547","display_name":"Padua Research Archive (University of Padova)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I138689650","host_organization_name":"University of Padua","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/mice.70100","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.70100","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/mice.70100","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S206927758","display_name":"Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering","issn_l":"1093-9687","issn":["1093-9687","1467-8667"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4415385237.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4415385237.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":69,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W205327495","https://openalex.org/W623830416","https://openalex.org/W1503306946","https://openalex.org/W1509453644","https://openalex.org/W1526203847","https://openalex.org/W1911281453","https://openalex.org/W1972245242","https://openalex.org/W1997986440","https://openalex.org/W2017314337","https://openalex.org/W2023121675","https://openalex.org/W2037272884","https://openalex.org/W2048771073","https://openalex.org/W2058350584","https://openalex.org/W2063071800","https://openalex.org/W2066408592","https://openalex.org/W2082392699","https://openalex.org/W2089926330","https://openalex.org/W2092066568","https://openalex.org/W2171247937","https://openalex.org/W2341187343","https://openalex.org/W2397386032","https://openalex.org/W2500302923","https://openalex.org/W2725834909","https://openalex.org/W2734451485","https://openalex.org/W2792003248","https://openalex.org/W2804395012","https://openalex.org/W2889441383","https://openalex.org/W2946012714","https://openalex.org/W2969061942","https://openalex.org/W2983468872","https://openalex.org/W3015994363","https://openalex.org/W3024239822","https://openalex.org/W3048481213","https://openalex.org/W3094207182","https://openalex.org/W3123331292","https://openalex.org/W3123829670","https://openalex.org/W3161740948","https://openalex.org/W3194666303","https://openalex.org/W3200067986","https://openalex.org/W4205685234","https://openalex.org/W4205981547","https://openalex.org/W4225768031","https://openalex.org/W4252168823","https://openalex.org/W4281768373","https://openalex.org/W4281790140","https://openalex.org/W4283032720","https://openalex.org/W4289831037","https://openalex.org/W4291122159","https://openalex.org/W4293018426","https://openalex.org/W4311961411","https://openalex.org/W4367665189","https://openalex.org/W4376278176","https://openalex.org/W4376873771","https://openalex.org/W4378894540","https://openalex.org/W4381252237","https://openalex.org/W4386650065","https://openalex.org/W4389511899","https://openalex.org/W4391683740","https://openalex.org/W4391783844","https://openalex.org/W4395073401","https://openalex.org/W4397009817","https://openalex.org/W4401505942","https://openalex.org/W4402513274","https://openalex.org/W4402726181","https://openalex.org/W4403550854","https://openalex.org/W4404495649","https://openalex.org/W4409158445","https://openalex.org/W4411065637","https://openalex.org/W4413097464"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,94],"paper":[1],"introduces":[2],"PRIMoS":[3,29,71,166],"(Probabilistic":[4],"Risk":[5],"matrix":[6],"Integration":[7],"with":[8,39],"MOnte":[9],"carlo":[10],"Simulation),":[11],"an":[12,31,153],"advanced":[13],"computational":[14],"framework":[15,37,51],"that":[16],"enhances":[17],"cost":[18,46,55,137,148],"overrun":[19,138],"risk":[20,42,47,78,106,173],"assessment":[21],"and":[22,57,104,135,175],"uncertainty":[23],"quantification":[24],"in":[25,155,178],"infrastructure":[26,126,180],"project":[27,84,114],"management.":[28],"is":[30],"innovative":[32],"Bayesian":[33],"Monte":[34,91],"Carlo":[35,92],"simulation":[36],"integrated":[38],"a":[40,73,124,168],"probabilistic":[41],"matrix,":[43],"providing":[44],"comprehensive":[45],"analysis.":[48],"The":[49,116,144],"proposed":[50,145],"simultaneously":[52],"addresses":[53],"both":[54],"uncertainties":[56],"time":[58],"uncertainties,":[59],"the":[60,98,109,113,159],"latter":[61],"through":[62,121],"discount":[63],"rate":[64],"assessment,":[65],"extending":[66],"beyond":[67],"traditional":[68],"cost-focused":[69],"approaches.":[70],"employs":[72],"novel":[74],"method":[75],"to":[76,123,131,141,162],"define":[77],"magnitude":[79],"(RM)":[80],"levels":[81],"for":[82,90,97,171],"all":[83],"components,":[85],"enabling":[86],"adaptive":[87],"probability":[88],"distributions":[89],"inputs.":[93],"approach":[95],"allows":[96],"capture":[99],"of":[100,112],"specific":[101],"cost-related":[102],"interdependencies":[103],"evolving":[105],"patterns":[107],"within":[108],"financial":[110],"aspects":[111],"lifecycle.":[115],"framework's":[117],"efficacy":[118],"was":[119],"demonstrated":[120],"application":[122],"large":[125],"project,":[127],"showcasing":[128],"its":[129],"ability":[130],"provide":[132],"more":[133],"accurate":[134],"detailed":[136],"forecasts":[139],"compared":[140],"conventional":[142],"methods.":[143],"model":[146],"improved":[147],"estimation":[149,160],"accuracy":[150],"by":[151],"predicting":[152],"increase":[154],"contingencies,":[156],"thereby":[157],"reducing":[158],"error":[161],"less":[163],"than":[164],"5%.":[165],"offers":[167],"powerful":[169],"tool":[170],"proactive":[172],"management":[174],"informed":[176],"decision-making":[177],"large-scale":[179],"development.":[181]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-08-26T07:47:46.906454","created_date":"2025-10-22T00:00:00"}
