{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4294811454","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/lcsys.2022.3204627","title":"Interacting With COVID-19: How Population Behavior, Feedback and Memory Shaped Recurrent Waves of the Epidemic","display_name":"Interacting With COVID-19: How Population Behavior, Feedback and Memory Shaped Recurrent Waves of the Epidemic","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-09-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4294811454","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/lcsys.2022.3204627"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/lcsys.2022.3204627","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/lcsys.2022.3204627","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306422535","display_name":"IEEE Control Systems Letters","issn_l":"2475-1456","issn":["2475-1456"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Control Systems Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036698807","display_name":"Francesco Montefusco","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3264-9686"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I183638586","display_name":"Parthenope University of Naples","ror":"https://ror.org/05pcv4v03","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I183638586"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Francesco Montefusco","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Engineering, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Napoli Parthenope, Naples, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3264-9686","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Engineering, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Napoli Parthenope, Naples, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I183638586"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102825181","display_name":"Anna Procopio","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3639-8714"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36443711","display_name":"Magna Graecia University","ror":"https://ror.org/0530bdk91","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anna Procopio","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer and Biomedical Engineering, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi Magna Gr&#x00E6;cia di Catanzaro, Catanzaro, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3639-8714","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer and Biomedical Engineering, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi Magna Gr&#x00E6;cia di Catanzaro, Catanzaro, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045193663","display_name":"Iulia Martina Bulai","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9570-8532"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I159650629","display_name":"University of Sassari","ror":"https://ror.org/01bnjbv91","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I159650629"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Iulia M. Bulai","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze Chimiche, Fisiche, Matematiche e Naturali, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Sassari, Sassari, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9570-8532","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze Chimiche, Fisiche, Matematiche e Naturali, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Sassari, Sassari, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I159650629"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030101234","display_name":"Francesco Amato","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9053-3139"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71267560","display_name":"University of Naples Federico II","ror":"https://ror.org/05290cv24","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71267560"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Francesco Amato","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9053-3139","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71267560"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030956192","display_name":"Morten Gram Pedersen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2639-2394"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I138689650","display_name":"University of Padua","ror":"https://ror.org/00240q980","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Morten G. Pedersen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Information Engineering and the Department of Mathematics &#x201C;Tullio Levi-Civita&#x201D;, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Padova, Padova, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2639-2394","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Information Engineering and the Department of Mathematics &#x201C;Tullio Levi-Civita&#x201D;, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi di Padova, Padova, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085080876","display_name":"Carlo Cosentino","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5768-1829"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36443711","display_name":"Magna Graecia University","ror":"https://ror.org/0530bdk91","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Carlo Cosentino","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer and Biomedical Engineering, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi Magna Gr&#x00E6;cia di Catanzaro, Catanzaro, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5768-1829","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer and Biomedical Engineering, Universit&#x00E1; degli Studi Magna Gr&#x00E6;cia di Catanzaro, Catanzaro, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36443711"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":2045,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2045},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.572,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":20,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90167258,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":93,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"7","issue":null,"first_page":"583","last_page":"588"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.972100019454956,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10167","display_name":"Influenza Virus Research Studies","score":0.968999981880188,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.6799811124801636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transmission","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","score":0.6081080436706543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.5761011838912964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.5631635189056396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychological-intervention","display_name":"Psychological intervention","score":0.4881964325904846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/perception","display_name":"Perception","score":0.4600643217563629},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/control","display_name":"Control (management)","score":0.45791617035865784},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-model","display_name":"Epidemic model","score":0.4475584030151367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.4253539443016052},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.39300844073295593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.3362976610660553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.33245623111724854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.26976311206817627},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.18756809830665588},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-health","display_name":"Environmental health","score":0.17963647842407227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.13955214619636536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/telecommunications","display_name":"Telecommunications","score":0.11037373542785645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.10000082850456238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/neuroscience","display_name":"Neuroscience","score":0.09333226084709167}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.6799811124801636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.6081080436706543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.5761011838912964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5631635189056396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.4881964325904846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26760741","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160402","display_name":"Perception","level":2,"score":0.4600643217563629},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775924081","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55608371","display_name":"Control (management)","level":2,"score":0.45791617035865784},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.4475584030151367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.4253539443016052},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.39300844073295593},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3362976610660553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.33245623111724854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.26976311206817627},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.18756809830665588},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.17963647842407227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.13955214619636536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.11037373542785645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.10000082850456238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169760540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207011","display_name":"Neuroscience","level":1,"score":0.09333226084709167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/lcsys.2022.3204627","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/lcsys.2022.3204627","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306422535","display_name":"IEEE Control Systems Letters","issn_l":"2475-1456","issn":["2475-1456"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Control Systems Letters","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:ricerca.uniparthenope.it:11367/109077","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11367/109077","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196432","display_name":"CINECA IRIS Institutial research information system (Parthenope University of Naples)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I183638586","host_organization_name":"Parthenope University of Naples","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I183638586"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:ricerca.uniparthenope.it:11367/109078","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11367/109078","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196432","display_name":"CINECA IRIS Institutial research information system (Parthenope University of Naples)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I183638586","host_organization_name":"Parthenope University of Naples","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I183638586"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:www.research.unipd.it:11577/3470283","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11577/3470283","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402547","display_name":"Padua Research Archive (University of Padova)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I138689650","host_organization_name":"University of Padua","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8700000047683716,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":30,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W178056938","https://openalex.org/W2142635246","https://openalex.org/W2163753340","https://openalex.org/W2168175751","https://openalex.org/W2563950034","https://openalex.org/W2607267260","https://openalex.org/W2997617322","https://openalex.org/W3003668884","https://openalex.org/W3008696669","https://openalex.org/W3010233963","https://openalex.org/W3018782651","https://openalex.org/W3023190093","https://openalex.org/W3023441241","https://openalex.org/W3023540311","https://openalex.org/W3032725243","https://openalex.org/W3035417125","https://openalex.org/W3089712435","https://openalex.org/W3091995435","https://openalex.org/W3092811566","https://openalex.org/W3109347443","https://openalex.org/W3111564425","https://openalex.org/W3117292406","https://openalex.org/W3122370325","https://openalex.org/W3123257431","https://openalex.org/W3129670292","https://openalex.org/W3155828655","https://openalex.org/W3164986408","https://openalex.org/W3175385222","https://openalex.org/W4223565360","https://openalex.org/W6777548552"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4382894326","https://openalex.org/W3035105474","https://openalex.org/W4205698903","https://openalex.org/W4294968941","https://openalex.org/W4283819461","https://openalex.org/W4390279739","https://openalex.org/W4205413867","https://openalex.org/W3179695362","https://openalex.org/W3087333412","https://openalex.org/W3081561731"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Until":[0],"the":[1,6,20,41,61,73,77,89,98,102,106,114,130,137,140,145,149,158,162,172,179,185,210,216,244,248,257,263],"approval":[2],"of":[3,8,60,65,76,88,108,129,139,161,169,174,190,208,212,218,242,250],"vaccines":[4],"at":[5],"end":[7],"2020,":[9],"societies":[10],"relied":[11],"on":[12,135,144,247],"non-pharmaceutical":[13],"interventions":[14],"(NPIs)":[15],"in":[16,25,153,188,238,259,268],"order":[17],"to":[18,31,37,44,81,148,183,230,253],"control":[19,35,228,256],"COVID-19":[21,186],"pandemic.":[22],"Spontaneous":[23],"changes":[24],"individual":[26],"behavior":[27],"might":[28],"have":[29,47],"contributed":[30],"or":[32,56],"counteracted":[33],"epidemic":[34,131],"due":[36],"NPIs.":[38],"For":[39],"example,":[40],"population":[42],"compliance":[43,147],"NPIs":[45,142],"may":[46],"varied":[48],"over":[49,199],"time":[50,202],"as":[51],"people":[52],"developed":[53],"\u201cepidemic":[54],"fatigue\u201d":[55],"altered":[57],"their":[58],"perception":[59],"risk":[62],"and":[63,105,143,222,255],"severity":[64,138],"COVID-19.":[66],"Whereas":[67],"official":[68],"measures":[69],"are":[70],"well":[71],"documented,":[72],"behavioral":[74],"response":[75,100],"citizens":[78],"is":[79,121,181,206,266],"harder":[80],"capture.":[82],"We":[83,176],"propose":[84],"a":[85,123,126,166],"mathematical":[86],"model":[87,180],"societal":[90],"response,":[91],"taking":[92],"into":[93],"account":[94],"three":[95],"main":[96],"effects:":[97],"citizen":[99],"dynamics,":[101],"authorities\u2019":[103,141],"NPIs,":[104],"occurrence":[107],"unpreventable":[109],"events":[110],"that":[111,122,165,178],"significantly":[112],"alter":[113],"virus":[115,220,264],"transmission":[116,159],"rate.":[117],"A":[118,234],"key":[119],"assumption":[120],"society":[124],"has":[125],"waning":[127],"memory":[128],"effects,":[132],"which":[133],"reflects":[134],"both":[136],"citizens\u2019":[146],"prescribed":[150],"rules.":[151],"This,":[152],"turn,":[154],"feeds":[155],"back":[156],"onto":[157],"rate":[160],"disease,":[163],"such":[164,232],"higher":[167],"number":[168],"hospitalizations":[170],"decreases":[171],"probability":[173],"transmission.":[175],"show":[177],"able":[182],"reproduce":[184],"dynamics":[187],"terms":[189],"hospital":[191],"admissions":[192],"for":[193,226],"several":[194],"European":[195],"countries":[196],"during":[197],"2020":[198],"surprisingly":[200],"long":[201],"scales.":[203],"Also,":[204],"it":[205],"capable":[207],"capturing":[209],"effects":[211],"disturbances":[213],"(for":[214],"example":[215],"emergence":[217],"new":[219],"variants)":[221],"can":[223],"be":[224],"exploited":[225],"implementing":[227],"actions":[229],"limit":[231],"effects.":[233],"possible":[235],"application,":[236],"illustrated":[237],"this":[239],"letter,":[240],"consists":[241],"exploiting":[243],"estimations":[245],"based":[246],"data":[249],"one":[251],"country,":[252,261],"predict":[254],"evolution":[258],"another":[260],"where":[262],"spreading":[265],"still":[267],"an":[269],"earlier":[270],"phase.":[271]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-08-28T12:50:07.497085","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
