{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4407951647","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ispec59716.2024.10892497","title":"Variational Representation for Risk Assessment in Aggregated Supply Curve Forecasting: A Case Study in Singapore's Electricity Market","display_name":"Variational Representation for Risk Assessment in Aggregated Supply Curve Forecasting: A Case Study in Singapore's Electricity Market","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-11-24","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4407951647","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ispec59716.2024.10892497"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/ispec59716.2024.10892497","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ispec59716.2024.10892497","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2024 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference (iSPEC)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115911191","display_name":"Noelle Y. L. Wong","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1341483097","display_name":"Public Utilities Board","ror":"https://ror.org/04ecck436","country_code":"SG","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1341483097","https://openalex.org/I4210165108"]}],"countries":["SG"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Noelle Y. L. Wong","raw_affiliation_strings":["Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd,Data Science &#x0026; Analytics,Singapore"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd,Data Science &#x0026; Analytics,Singapore","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1341483097"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016960268","display_name":"Dipti Srinivasan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4877-3478"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165932596","display_name":"National University of Singapore","ror":"https://ror.org/01tgyzw49","country_code":"SG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}],"countries":["SG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dipti Srinivasan","raw_affiliation_strings":["National University of Singapore,Department of Electrical &#x0026; Computer Engineering,Singapore"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National University of Singapore,Department of Electrical &#x0026; Computer Engineering,Singapore","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5018208772","display_name":"Eng Yeow Cheu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1341483097","display_name":"Public Utilities Board","ror":"https://ror.org/04ecck436","country_code":"SG","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1341483097","https://openalex.org/I4210165108"]}],"countries":["SG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eng Yeow Cheu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd,Data Science &#x0026; Analytics,Singapore"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd,Data Science &#x0026; Analytics,Singapore","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1341483097"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115911192","display_name":"Zhonglin Chiam","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1341483097","display_name":"Public Utilities Board","ror":"https://ror.org/04ecck436","country_code":"SG","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1341483097","https://openalex.org/I4210165108"]}],"countries":["SG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhonglin Chiam","raw_affiliation_strings":["Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd,Data Science &#x0026; Analytics,Singapore"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd,Data Science &#x0026; Analytics,Singapore","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1341483097"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5115911191"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1341483097"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.16310404,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"416","last_page":"421"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11954","display_name":"Energy Efficiency and Management","score":0.9419000148773193,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2105","display_name":"Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/21","display_name":"Energy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11954","display_name":"Energy Efficiency and Management","score":0.9419000148773193,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2105","display_name":"Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/21","display_name":"Energy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9375,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11126","display_name":"Metallurgical Processes and Thermodynamics","score":0.9333000183105469,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2210","display_name":"Mechanical Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-market","display_name":"Electricity market","score":0.6395544409751892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity","display_name":"Electricity","score":0.63869708776474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/representation","display_name":"Representation (politics)","score":0.5540717840194702},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.46008917689323425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mains-electricity","display_name":"Mains electricity","score":0.43804603815078735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3940574824810028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.35527539253234863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.21442994475364685},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electrical-engineering","display_name":"Electrical engineering","score":0.16985145211219788}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146733006","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q676081","display_name":"Electricity market","level":3,"score":0.6395544409751892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206658404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12725","display_name":"Electricity","level":2,"score":0.63869708776474},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776359362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2145286","display_name":"Representation (politics)","level":3,"score":0.5540717840194702},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.46008917689323425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C184773241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q387400","display_name":"Mains electricity","level":3,"score":0.43804603815078735},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3940574824810028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.35527539253234863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.21442994475364685},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119599485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43035","display_name":"Electrical engineering","level":1,"score":0.16985145211219788},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165801399","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25428","display_name":"Voltage","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/ispec59716.2024.10892497","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ispec59716.2024.10892497","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2024 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference (iSPEC)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":21,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1966897524","https://openalex.org/W1993750689","https://openalex.org/W2064935910","https://openalex.org/W2114682204","https://openalex.org/W2117101278","https://openalex.org/W2625224297","https://openalex.org/W2758165594","https://openalex.org/W2907876867","https://openalex.org/W2963148318","https://openalex.org/W2966110735","https://openalex.org/W3020140057","https://openalex.org/W3163052994","https://openalex.org/W4281572064","https://openalex.org/W4367056194","https://openalex.org/W4387824521","https://openalex.org/W4393406708","https://openalex.org/W6640963894","https://openalex.org/W6760540592","https://openalex.org/W6784522842","https://openalex.org/W6837837777","https://openalex.org/W6848367595"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2544743054","https://openalex.org/W3005545942","https://openalex.org/W2356680598","https://openalex.org/W2966111772","https://openalex.org/W2385067961","https://openalex.org/W3010029043","https://openalex.org/W2299915012","https://openalex.org/W4237392821","https://openalex.org/W2383586764","https://openalex.org/W4327773935"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"study":[1,133],"underscores":[2],"the":[3,15,78,84,108,113,119,127,139,155,162,168],"potential":[4],"of":[5,32,59,83,118,135,157],"variational":[6,88],"representation":[7],"as":[8],"a":[9,92],"tool":[10],"for":[11,171],"uncertainty":[12,80,137],"estimation":[13],"in":[14,25,48,65,138,167,174],"energy":[16,41,67],"market,":[17],"which":[18,103],"would":[19],"help":[20],"Independent":[21],"System":[22],"Operators":[23],"(ISO)":[24],"risk":[26,172],"assessment":[27],"and":[28,57,63,81,99,132,146],"demand":[29],"response.":[30],"Forecasts":[31],"future":[33],"supply":[34,122],"curves":[35,123],"are":[36],"also":[37],"very":[38],"valuable":[39],"to":[40,44,106,125,151],"suppliers":[42],"seeking":[43],"optimize":[45],"bidding":[46,61],"strategies":[47],"an":[49],"oligopolistic":[50],"power":[51],"market":[52,142,169],"characterized":[53],"by":[54],"information":[55],"privacy":[56],"volatility":[58,82],"individual":[60],"behaviors":[62],"variability":[64],"renewable":[66],"generation.":[68],"However,":[69],"traditional":[70],"deterministic":[71],"modelling":[72,173],"methods":[73],"may":[74],"not":[75],"adequately":[76],"capture":[77,165],"inherent":[79],"electricity":[85,141],"market.":[86],"Our":[87],"encoding":[89],"technique":[90],"produces":[91],"resultant":[93],"embedding":[94],"space":[95],"that":[96,161],"is":[97],"stochastic":[98],"exhibits":[100],"substantial":[101],"interpretability,":[102],"we":[104,130],"exploit":[105],"demonstrate":[107],"model's":[109],"transparency.":[110],"By":[111],"using":[112],"learned":[114],"posterior":[115],"probability":[116],"distribution":[117],"embedded":[120],"aggregated":[121],"(ASCs)":[124],"determine":[126],"statistical":[128],"dispersion,":[129],"identify":[131],"periods":[134],"high":[136],"Singapore":[140],"between":[143],"December":[144],"2021":[145],"March":[147],"2023.":[148],"We":[149],"seek":[150],"provide":[152],"insights":[153],"into":[154],"origins":[156],"these":[158],"uncertainties,":[159],"showing":[160],"method":[163],"can":[164],"changes":[166],"useful":[170],"decision-making.":[175]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2025-12-28T23:10:05.387466","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
