{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2088802041","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsmc.1984.6313231","title":"An approach to early warning of slowly evolving crises with reference to food shortage forecasting","display_name":"An approach to early warning of slowly evolving crises with reference to food shortage forecasting","publication_year":1984,"publication_date":"1984-05-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2088802041","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsmc.1984.6313231","mag":"2088802041"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/tsmc.1984.6313231","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsmc.1984.6313231","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S76152103","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics","issn_l":"0018-9472","issn":["0018-9472","2168-2909"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079047319","display_name":"Thomas J. Manetsch","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I87216513","display_name":"Michigan State University","ror":"https://ror.org/05hs6h993","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I87216513"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Thomas J. Manetsch","raw_affiliation_strings":["Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA","Michigan State University,East Lansing, MI, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I87216513"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Michigan State University,East Lansing, MI, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I87216513"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5079047319"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I87216513"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.6172,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90185167,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"SMC-14","issue":"3","first_page":"391","last_page":"397"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.7131999731063843,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.7131999731063843,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":0.6582000255584717,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11810","display_name":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","score":0.6236000061035156,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/warning-system","display_name":"Warning system","score":0.7339206337928772},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/alarm","display_name":"ALARM","score":0.6454968452453613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/index","display_name":"Index (typography)","score":0.6090971231460571},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-shortage","display_name":"Economic shortage","score":0.6080546379089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variance","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","score":0.5533492565155029},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.5341730713844299},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/false-alarm","display_name":"False alarm","score":0.4893719553947449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/point","display_name":"Point (geometry)","score":0.4476010799407959},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.41227686405181885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.3474975526332855},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.3334362506866455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.20893594622612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.19325560331344604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.1202247142791748}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.7339206337928772},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779119184","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q294350","display_name":"ALARM","level":2,"score":0.6454968452453613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.6090971231460571},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194051981","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1337691","display_name":"Economic shortage","level":3,"score":0.6080546379089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.5533492565155029},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5341730713844299},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776836416","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1364844","display_name":"False alarm","level":2,"score":0.4893719553947449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.4476010799407959},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.41227686405181885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3474975526332855},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3334362506866455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.20893594622612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.19325560331344604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.1202247142791748},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76155785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418","display_name":"Telecommunications","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/tsmc.1984.6313231","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsmc.1984.6313231","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S76152103","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics","issn_l":"0018-9472","issn":["0018-9472","2168-2909"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6399999856948853,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/2","display_name":"Zero hunger"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2365317830","https://openalex.org/W2056285341","https://openalex.org/W2724798914","https://openalex.org/W1992088265","https://openalex.org/W3123447206","https://openalex.org/W2087051683","https://openalex.org/W2116487654","https://openalex.org/W1509916473","https://openalex.org/W2028704813","https://openalex.org/W2355223573"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"An":[0],"approach":[1],"is":[2,16,32],"described":[3],"for":[4,10,55,94],"forecasting":[5],"slowly":[6],"evolving":[7],"food":[8],"crises":[9],"which":[11],"an":[12],"early":[13,44],"warning":[14,45],"index":[15,46],"assumed":[17],"to":[18,83,90],"change":[19],"linearly":[20],"with":[21,80],"time.":[22],"The":[23],"difficulties":[24],"faced":[25],"in":[26],"decision":[27,74],"making":[28],"are":[29,53,77],"outlined.":[30],"It":[31],"seen":[33],"that":[34],"the":[35,43,57,60,84],"`\u03b1-\u03b2":[36],"tracker'":[37],"can":[38],"provide":[39],"optimal":[40,58],"estimates":[41,65],"of":[42,50,66,86],"and":[47,64,88],"its":[48],"rate":[49],"change.":[51],"Equations":[52],"developed":[54],"obtaining":[56],"estimates,":[59],"corresponding":[61],"variance-covariance":[62],"matrix,":[63],"false":[67],"alarm":[68],"or":[69],"failure-to-detect":[70],"probabilities":[71],"at":[72],"each":[73],"point.":[75],"Decisionmakers":[76],"also":[78],"provided":[79],"information":[81],"relating":[82],"decisions":[85],"whether":[87],"when":[89],"acquire":[91],"further":[92],"data":[93],"another":[95],"crisis-no":[96],"crisis":[97],"decision.":[98]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
