{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3194355893","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2021.3107159","title":"Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-Load With Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP","display_name":"Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-Load With Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-08-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3194355893","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2021.3107159","mag":"3194355893"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/tsg.2021.3107159","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2021.3107159","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S59604973","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid","issn_l":"1949-3053","issn":["1949-3053","1949-3061"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/257015b2-43ce-43bc-a208-8bae3a65086e","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085763147","display_name":"Jethro Browell","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5960-666X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181647926","display_name":"University of Strathclyde","ror":"https://ror.org/00n3w3b69","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I7882870","display_name":"University of Glasgow","ror":"https://ror.org/00vtgdb53","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I7882870"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jethro Browell","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, U.K","School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, U.K"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5960-666X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, U.K","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, U.K","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I7882870"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017828577","display_name":"Matteo Fasiolo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2335-5536"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","display_name":"University of Bristol","ror":"https://ror.org/0524sp257","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matteo Fasiolo","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, U.K"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2335-5536","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, U.K","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.8647,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":55,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94103809,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"12","issue":"6","first_page":"5011","last_page":"5019"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11371","display_name":"Wind and Air Flow Studies","score":0.9933000206947327,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9865000247955322,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6931285858154297},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5490617156028748},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.5450785756111145},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conditional-probability-distribution","display_name":"Conditional probability distribution","score":0.542325496673584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generalized-pareto-distribution","display_name":"Generalized Pareto distribution","score":0.4715587794780731},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.461483895778656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-optimization","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","score":0.36535561084747314},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.24333468079566956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.205354243516922},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.1524634063243866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-value-theory","display_name":"Extreme value theory","score":0.1394975185394287}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6931285858154297},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5490617156028748},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.5450785756111145},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43555835","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2300258","display_name":"Conditional probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.542325496673584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133514767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532448","display_name":"Generalized Pareto distribution","level":3,"score":0.4715587794780731},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.461483895778656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.36535561084747314},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.24333468079566956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.205354243516922},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.1524634063243866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147581598","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q729429","display_name":"Extreme value theory","level":2,"score":0.1394975185394287}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":9,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/tsg.2021.3107159","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2021.3107159","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S59604973","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid","issn_l":"1949-3053","issn":["1949-3053","1949-3061"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/257015b2-43ce-43bc-a208-8bae3a65086e","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/257015b2-43ce-43bc-a208-8bae3a65086e","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400895","display_name":"Bristol Research (University of Bristol)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","host_organization_name":"University of Bristol","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Browell, J & Fasiolo, M 2021, 'Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-Load With Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP', IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 5011-5019. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2021.3107159","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},{"id":"pmh:oai:eprints.gla.ac.uk:250372","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210235606","display_name":"ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam)","issn_l":"2622-8912","issn":["2622-8912","2622-8920"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Articles"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2103.10335","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.10335","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.10335","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire/257015b2-43ce-43bc-a208-8bae3a65086e","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/1983/257015b2-43ce-43bc-a208-8bae3a65086e","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.10335","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400895","display_name":"Bristol Research (University of Bristol)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","host_organization_name":"University of Bristol","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Browell, J & Fasiolo, M 2021, 'Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-Load With Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP', IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 5011-5019. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2021.3107159","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.4618056","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4618056","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"dataset"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.4618057","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4618057","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"dataset"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.5031662","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5031662","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"dataset"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.5031704","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5031704","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"dataset"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/257015b2-43ce-43bc-a208-8bae3a65086e","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/257015b2-43ce-43bc-a208-8bae3a65086e","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400895","display_name":"Bristol Research (University of Bristol)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","host_organization_name":"University of Bristol","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Browell, J & Fasiolo, M 2021, 'Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-Load With Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP', IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 5011-5019. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2021.3107159","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","score":0.6899999976158142,"display_name":"Affordable and clean energy"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G477075310","display_name":"System-wide Probabilistic Energy Forecasting","funder_award_id":"EP/R023484/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5957826803","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EP/R023484/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320360","display_name":"University of Bristol","ror":"https://ror.org/0524sp257"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/0439y7842"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":43,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1500657154","https://openalex.org/W1987230786","https://openalex.org/W2024335949","https://openalex.org/W2081770709","https://openalex.org/W2082066983","https://openalex.org/W2101188356","https://openalex.org/W2130715829","https://openalex.org/W2132634326","https://openalex.org/W2154065358","https://openalex.org/W2275088575","https://openalex.org/W2286305802","https://openalex.org/W2296521892","https://openalex.org/W2326634955","https://openalex.org/W2550418204","https://openalex.org/W2593643174","https://openalex.org/W2607339923","https://openalex.org/W2612872900","https://openalex.org/W2735160842","https://openalex.org/W2758333747","https://openalex.org/W2766228243","https://openalex.org/W2792412799","https://openalex.org/W2808435218","https://openalex.org/W2810878542","https://openalex.org/W2891613568","https://openalex.org/W2913078578","https://openalex.org/W2974231133","https://openalex.org/W2982637766","https://openalex.org/W2995710731","https://openalex.org/W3009445996","https://openalex.org/W3035771174","https://openalex.org/W3036453633","https://openalex.org/W3047167406","https://openalex.org/W3106414954","https://openalex.org/W3112717819","https://openalex.org/W3122992882","https://openalex.org/W3125696988","https://openalex.org/W3126081667","https://openalex.org/W4245647637","https://openalex.org/W4285051269","https://openalex.org/W4291327732","https://openalex.org/W4292671038","https://openalex.org/W4298193418","https://openalex.org/W4393581367"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2909436466","https://openalex.org/W2769304616","https://openalex.org/W2561944894","https://openalex.org/W3188413760","https://openalex.org/W2963188571","https://openalex.org/W2008291043","https://openalex.org/W2373467473","https://openalex.org/W2791458617","https://openalex.org/W3121565704","https://openalex.org/W2987052531"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,108,165],"increasing":[1],"penetration":[2],"of":[3,25,36,52,63,90,106,145,157],"embedded":[4,11],"renewables":[5],"makes":[6],"forecasting":[7,81],"net-load,":[8,85],"consumption":[9],"less":[10],"generation,":[12],"a":[13,19,74,78,126,150],"significant":[14],"and":[15,66,86,116,175],"growing":[16],"challenge.":[17],"Here":[18],"framework":[20],"for":[21,42,84],"producing":[22],"probabilistic":[23],"forecasts":[24,110],"net-load":[26],"is":[27],"proposed":[28,166],"with":[29,46,93,121],"particular":[30],"attention":[31],"given":[32,151],"to":[33,101,113,140,148,171],"the":[34,57,88,94,135,142],"tails":[35,89,137],"predictive":[37,64,91],"distributions,":[38],"which":[39],"are":[40,54,111,138],"required":[41,147],"managing":[43],"risk":[44,159],"associated":[45],"low-probability":[47],"events.":[48],"Only":[49],"small":[50],"volumes":[51],"data":[53],"available":[55],"in":[56],"tails,":[58],"by":[59,162],"definition,":[60],"so":[61],"estimation":[62],"models":[65],"forecast":[67],"evaluation":[68,129],"requires":[69],"special":[70],"attention.":[71],"We":[72],"propose":[73],"solution":[75],"based":[76,131],"on":[77,132],"best-in-class":[79],"load":[80],"methodology":[82],"adapted":[83],"model":[87],"distributions":[92],"Generalised":[95],"Pareto":[96],"Distribution,":[97],"allowing":[98],"its":[99],"parameters":[100],"vary":[102],"smoothly":[103],"as":[104],"functions":[105],"covariates.":[107],"resulting":[109],"shown":[112,139],"be":[114],"calibrated":[115],"sharper":[117],"than":[118],"those":[119],"produced":[120],"unconditional":[122],"tail":[123],"distributions.":[124],"In":[125],"use-case":[127],"inspired":[128],"exercise":[130],"reserve":[133,146],"setting,":[134],"conditional":[136],"reduce":[141,173],"overall":[143],"volume":[144],"manage":[149],"risk.":[152,178],"Furthermore,":[153],"they":[154],"identify":[155],"periods":[156],"high":[158],"not":[160],"captured":[161],"other":[163],"methods.":[164],"method":[167],"therefore":[168],"enables":[169],"user":[170],"both":[172],"costs":[174],"avoid":[176],"excess":[177]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":19},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2021-08-30T00:00:00"}
