{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4412030637","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tkde.2025.3583129","title":"<i>On Your Mark, Get Set, Predict!</i> Modeling Continuous-Time Dynamics of Cascades for Information Popularity Prediction","display_name":"<i>On Your Mark, Get Set, Predict!</i> Modeling Continuous-Time Dynamics of Cascades for Information Popularity Prediction","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-07-04","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4412030637","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tkde.2025.3583129"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/tkde.2025.3583129","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tkde.2025.3583129","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S30698027","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering","issn_l":"1041-4347","issn":["1041-4347","1558-2191","2326-3865"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320439","host_organization_name":"IEEE Computer Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320439","https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IEEE Computer Society","Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Xin Jing","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3527-6186"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204512498","display_name":"University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/01r4q9n85","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204512498"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6469544","display_name":"City University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/04gpd4q15","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}],"countries":["MO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xin Jing","raw_affiliation_strings":["State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3527-6186","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204512498","https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Yichen Jing","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204512498","display_name":"University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/01r4q9n85","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204512498"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6469544","display_name":"City University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/04gpd4q15","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}],"countries":["MO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yichen Jing","raw_affiliation_strings":["State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204512498","https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5042609135","display_name":"Yuhuan Lu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5332-3389"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204512498","display_name":"University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/01r4q9n85","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204512498"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6469544","display_name":"City University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/04gpd4q15","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}],"countries":["MO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yuhuan Lu","raw_affiliation_strings":["State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5332-3389","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204512498","https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063779357","display_name":"Bangchao Deng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7084-014X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204512498","display_name":"University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/01r4q9n85","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204512498"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6469544","display_name":"City University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/04gpd4q15","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}],"countries":["MO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bangchao Deng","raw_affiliation_strings":["State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7084-014X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204512498","https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100308786","display_name":"Sikun Yang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sikun Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computing and Information Technology, Great Bay University, Beijing, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computing and Information Technology, Great Bay University, Beijing, China","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026625771","display_name":"Dingqi Yang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6831-0422"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204512498","display_name":"University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/01r4q9n85","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204512498"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I6469544","display_name":"City University of Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/04gpd4q15","country_code":"MO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}],"countries":["MO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dingqi Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":["State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6831-0422","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macao, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204512498","https://openalex.org/I6469544"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.3672,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8082793,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"37","issue":"9","first_page":"5436","last_page":"5451"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12592","display_name":"Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence","score":0.9918000102043152,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12592","display_name":"Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence","score":0.9918000102043152,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10064","display_name":"Complex Network Analysis Techniques","score":0.9902999997138977,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13083","display_name":"Advanced Text Analysis Techniques","score":0.9828000068664551,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.8133050203323364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/popularity","display_name":"Popularity","score":0.7593129277229309},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/set","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","score":0.5668132305145264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dynamics","display_name":"Dynamics (music)","score":0.5547736287117004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-modeling","display_name":"Data modeling","score":0.5040792226791382},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.5034202933311462},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/database","display_name":"Database","score":0.13317742943763733}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.8133050203323364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.7593129277229309},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.5668132305145264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145912823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113558","display_name":"Dynamics (music)","level":2,"score":0.5547736287117004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C67186912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q367664","display_name":"Data modeling","level":2,"score":0.5040792226791382},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.5034202933311462},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77088390","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8513","display_name":"Database","level":1,"score":0.13317742943763733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24890656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82811","display_name":"Acoustics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/tkde.2025.3583129","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tkde.2025.3583129","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S30698027","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering","issn_l":"1041-4347","issn":["1041-4347","1558-2191","2326-3865"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320439","host_organization_name":"IEEE Computer Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320439","https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["IEEE Computer Society","Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322841","display_name":"Universidade de Macau","ror":"https://ror.org/01r4q9n85"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":62,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W184915860","https://openalex.org/W1966648745","https://openalex.org/W1967579779","https://openalex.org/W1996263819","https://openalex.org/W2024626449","https://openalex.org/W2051322528","https://openalex.org/W2052817812","https://openalex.org/W2090059852","https://openalex.org/W2112056172","https://openalex.org/W2120166550","https://openalex.org/W2124689612","https://openalex.org/W2125322148","https://openalex.org/W2127267264","https://openalex.org/W2141250202","https://openalex.org/W2146341589","https://openalex.org/W2154851992","https://openalex.org/W2156716308","https://openalex.org/W2265862919","https://openalex.org/W2472257696","https://openalex.org/W2551441958","https://openalex.org/W2767220239","https://openalex.org/W2789120929","https://openalex.org/W2791544114","https://openalex.org/W2792234394","https://openalex.org/W2809156873","https://openalex.org/W2903664715","https://openalex.org/W2908066257","https://openalex.org/W2914833637","https://openalex.org/W2949377321","https://openalex.org/W2951851909","https://openalex.org/W2952395191","https://openalex.org/W2954973878","https://openalex.org/W2963493749","https://openalex.org/W2963603520","https://openalex.org/W2966694634","https://openalex.org/W3001111845","https://openalex.org/W3028571922","https://openalex.org/W3047401381","https://openalex.org/W3123875030","https://openalex.org/W3155747292","https://openalex.org/W3177389668","https://openalex.org/W3187289530","https://openalex.org/W3197521018","https://openalex.org/W3212331806","https://openalex.org/W4200534804","https://openalex.org/W4281653831","https://openalex.org/W4283807147","https://openalex.org/W4291474301","https://openalex.org/W4292688094","https://openalex.org/W4302406680","https://openalex.org/W4313012368","https://openalex.org/W4385245566","https://openalex.org/W4385768197","https://openalex.org/W4387846713","https://openalex.org/W4409150612","https://openalex.org/W4409365446","https://openalex.org/W6678720353","https://openalex.org/W6726873649","https://openalex.org/W6752307458","https://openalex.org/W6755573351","https://openalex.org/W6789042779","https://openalex.org/W6853890001"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2368605798","https://openalex.org/W2518037665","https://openalex.org/W2348524959","https://openalex.org/W2477036161","https://openalex.org/W2368049389","https://openalex.org/W2384861574","https://openalex.org/W4294565801","https://openalex.org/W2170801710","https://openalex.org/W2952704802","https://openalex.org/W2741781807"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Information":[0],"popularity":[1,22,141,198],"prediction":[2,199],"is":[3,86,98],"important":[4],"yet":[5],"challenging":[6],"in":[7,24,161],"various":[8],"domains,":[9],"including":[10],"viral":[11],"marketing":[12],"and":[13,169],"news":[14],"recommendations.":[15],"The":[16],"key":[17],"to":[18,57,65,80,106,123,154,205,220],"accurately":[19],"predicting":[20],"information":[21,30,38,84,140],"lies":[23],"subtly":[25],"modeling":[26,135],"the":[27,42,59,63,66,108,125,144,166,174,197,227,231],"underlying":[28],"temporal":[29,60,183],"diffusion":[31,85,127],"process":[32,91],"behind":[33],"observed":[34,68,94],"events":[35,157,180],"of":[36,44,158],"an":[37],"cascade,":[39],"such":[40],"as":[41,103,119,181],"retweets":[43],"a":[45,72,88,159,189],"tweet.":[46],"To":[47],"this":[48,130],"end,":[49],"most":[50],"existing":[51],"methods":[52],"either":[53],"adopt":[54],"recurrent":[55,101],"networks":[56,102],"capture":[58,107,124],"dynamics":[61,137],"from":[62],"first":[64],"last":[67],"event":[69,171],"or":[70,114],"develop":[71],"statistical":[73],"model":[74,155],"based":[75,164],"on":[76,165,208],"self-exciting":[77,116],"point":[78,117,184],"processes":[79,118,185],"make":[81],"predictions.":[82],"However,":[83],"intrinsically":[87],"complex":[89,126],"continuous-time":[90],"with":[92],"irregularly":[93],"discrete":[95],"events,":[96,113],"which":[97,193],"oversimplified":[99],"using":[100,115],"they":[104,120],"fail":[105],"irregular":[109,156],"time":[110,163],"intervals":[111],"between":[112],"lack":[121],"flexibility":[122],"process.":[128],"Against":[129],"background,":[131],"we":[132],"propose":[133],"ConCat,":[134],"theContinuous-time":[136],"ofCascades":[138],"for":[139],"prediction.":[142],"On":[143,173],"one":[145],"hand,":[146,176],"it":[147,177],"leverages":[148],"neural":[149,182],"Ordinary":[150],"Differential":[151],"Equations":[152],"(ODEs)":[153],"cascade":[160,167,179],"continuous":[162],"graph":[168],"sequential":[170],"information.":[172],"other":[175],"considers":[178],"(TPPs)":[186],"parameterized":[187],"by":[188],"conditional":[190],"intensity":[191],"function":[192],"can":[194],"also":[195],"benefit":[196],"task.":[200],"We":[201],"conduct":[202],"extensive":[203],"experiments":[204],"evaluate":[206],"ConCat":[207,215],"three":[209,232],"real-world":[210],"datasets.":[211,233],"Results":[212],"show":[213],"that":[214],"achieves":[216],"superior":[217],"performance":[218],"compared":[219],"state-of-the-art":[221],"baselines,":[222],"yielding":[223],"2.3%-33.2%":[224],"improvement":[225],"over":[226],"best-performing":[228],"baselines":[229],"across":[230]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-07-29T09:40:50.615796","created_date":"2025-07-05T00:00:00"}