{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4414080408","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tii.2025.3600992","title":"Rare Event Probability Estimation in Probabilistic Integrated Heat and Power Energy Flow: Sensitivity, Quantification, and Mitigation","display_name":"Rare Event Probability Estimation in Probabilistic Integrated Heat and Power Energy Flow: Sensitivity, Quantification, and Mitigation","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-09-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4414080408","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tii.2025.3600992"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/tii.2025.3600992","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tii.2025.3600992","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S184777250","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics","issn_l":"1551-3203","issn":["1551-3203","1941-0050"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070063626","display_name":"Y.X. Li","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yibo Li","raw_affiliation_strings":["Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4422-4877","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047501422","display_name":"Yijun Xu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1970-1283"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yijun Xu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1970-1283","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100614290","display_name":"Wei Gu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2701-0009"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wei Gu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2701-0009","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5060915426","display_name":"Shixing Ding","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5275-1928"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I39333907","display_name":"Yanshan University","ror":"https://ror.org/02txfnf15","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39333907"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shixing Ding","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Electrical Engineering, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5275-1928","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Electrical Engineering, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39333907"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023379357","display_name":"Mert Korkali","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0927-6508"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76835614","display_name":"University of Missouri","ror":"https://ror.org/02ymw8z06","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76835614"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mert Korkali","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Missouri, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Columbia, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0927-6508","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Missouri, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Columbia, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76835614"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073678278","display_name":"Lamine Mili","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6134-3945"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I859038795","display_name":"Virginia Tech","ror":"https://ror.org/02smfhw86","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I859038795"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lamine Mili","raw_affiliation_strings":["Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Northern Virginia Center, Falls Church, VA, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6134-3945","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Northern Virginia Center, Falls Church, VA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I859038795"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062572718","display_name":"Zhixiong Hu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8024-6195"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1316064682","display_name":"LinkedIn (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/02fyxhe35","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1290206253","https://openalex.org/I1316064682"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhixiong Hu","raw_affiliation_strings":["LinkedIn Corporation 1000 W Maude Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA, USA","LinkedIn Corporation 1000&#x00A0;W Maude Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"LinkedIn Corporation 1000 W Maude Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1316064682"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"LinkedIn Corporation 1000&#x00A0;W Maude Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1316064682"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086816369","display_name":"Shuai Lu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5753-5327"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shuai Lu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5753-5327","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Electrical Engineering Department, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069640828","display_name":"Hongzhe Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6887-368X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hongzhe Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Networked Collective Intelligence, School of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6887-368X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Networked Collective Intelligence, School of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Wenwu Yu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0301-9180"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wenwu Yu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Networked Collective Intelligence, School of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0301-9180","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Networked Collective Intelligence, School of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":10,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5070063626"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.22744083,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"21","issue":"12","first_page":"9666","last_page":"9677"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10928","display_name":"Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design","score":0.8852999806404114,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10928","display_name":"Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design","score":0.8852999806404114,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11941","display_name":"Power System Reliability and Maintenance","score":0.8248000144958496,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2213","display_name":"Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11185","display_name":"Integrated Energy Systems Optimization","score":0.819100022315979,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sensitivity","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","score":0.7289000153541565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6617000102996826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rare-events","display_name":"Rare events","score":0.6263999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/polynomial-chaos","display_name":"Polynomial chaos","score":0.6062999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","score":0.6049000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy","display_name":"Energy (signal processing)","score":0.47850000858306885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","score":0.4733999967575073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/renewable-energy","display_name":"Renewable energy","score":0.4498000144958496}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.7289000153541565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6617000102996826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777317252","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18393516","display_name":"Rare events","level":2,"score":0.6263999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197656079","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17147719","display_name":"Polynomial chaos","level":3,"score":0.6062999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.6049000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5848000049591064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186370098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q442787","display_name":"Energy (signal processing)","level":2,"score":0.47850000858306885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.4733999967575073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188573790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12705","display_name":"Renewable energy","level":2,"score":0.4498000144958496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.4350999891757965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200601418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2193887","display_name":"Reliability engineering","level":1,"score":0.42649999260902405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26517878","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228039","display_name":"Key (lock)","level":2,"score":0.40689998865127563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197055811","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207522","display_name":"Probability density function","level":2,"score":0.38960000872612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8642999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4171168","display_name":"Hyperparameter","level":2,"score":0.36230000853538513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.35100001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89227174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388981","display_name":"Electric power system","level":3,"score":0.33629998564720154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.32199999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C90119067","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43260","display_name":"Polynomial","level":2,"score":0.31520000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78600449","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43302","display_name":"Wind power","level":2,"score":0.31369999051094055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2742236","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q924713","display_name":"Efficient energy use","level":2,"score":0.31150001287460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.2842000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.275299996137619}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/tii.2025.3600992","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tii.2025.3600992","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S184777250","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics","issn_l":"1551-3203","issn":["1551-3203","1941-0050"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6646561139","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"52325703","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":32,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W100464641","https://openalex.org/W1835834635","https://openalex.org/W2045355467","https://openalex.org/W2060003311","https://openalex.org/W2085376881","https://openalex.org/W2123489477","https://openalex.org/W2169461337","https://openalex.org/W2532758881","https://openalex.org/W2780946931","https://openalex.org/W2792742203","https://openalex.org/W2809519287","https://openalex.org/W2931433970","https://openalex.org/W2972556961","https://openalex.org/W2982546563","https://openalex.org/W3018798807","https://openalex.org/W3019717661","https://openalex.org/W3121009009","https://openalex.org/W3191091682","https://openalex.org/W3197845256","https://openalex.org/W3201039207","https://openalex.org/W3210325655","https://openalex.org/W4210268816","https://openalex.org/W4283704789","https://openalex.org/W4296552674","https://openalex.org/W4315487690","https://openalex.org/W4319444913","https://openalex.org/W4323338546","https://openalex.org/W4383752109","https://openalex.org/W4384519197","https://openalex.org/W4386006830","https://openalex.org/W4393640295","https://openalex.org/W4396680793"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1991093342","https://openalex.org/W2078622645","https://openalex.org/W2170798819","https://openalex.org/W3127311823","https://openalex.org/W2943623134","https://openalex.org/W2494523064","https://openalex.org/W2215759665","https://openalex.org/W2030292806","https://openalex.org/W2960358116","https://openalex.org/W4376309286"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"an":[1],"integrated":[2],"energy":[3,14],"system":[4,59],"(IES),":[5],"fluctuations":[6],"in":[7,156],"coupled":[8],"district":[9],"heating":[10],"networks":[11],"and":[12,149],"renewable":[13],"sources":[15],"pose":[16],"risks":[17,127],"to":[18,34,61,67,160],"the":[19,26,36,49,58,69,78,81,86,89,97,120,126,129,135,166,170],"power":[20],"system\u2019s":[21],"operation.":[22],"To":[23,101],"effectively":[24],"mitigate":[25],"risk":[27],"of":[28,51,57,71,80,88,128,138,169],"rare":[29,72,98,143],"events,":[30],"it":[31,65],"is":[32],"crucial":[33],"identify":[35],"key":[37],"factors":[38],"that":[39,118,124],"influence":[40],"their":[41],"likelihood.":[42],"Traditional":[43],"global":[44,114],"sensitivity":[45,50,70,115],"analysis":[46],"(GSA)":[47],"assesses":[48],"full":[52],"probability":[53],"density":[54],"functions":[55],"(PDFs)":[56],"output":[60],"uncertain":[62],"inputs.":[63],"However,":[64],"fails":[66],"evaluate":[68],"event":[73,99,144],"probabilities,":[74],"which":[75],"are":[76],"at":[77],"tail":[79],"PDF.":[82],"It":[83],"also":[84,133],"neglects":[85],"uncertainties":[87],"input":[90,121],"PDFs,":[91],"whose":[92],"hyperparameters":[93],"can":[94],"heavily":[95],"affect":[96],"probabilities.":[100],"address":[102],"these":[103],"issues,":[104],"we":[105],"propose":[106],"a":[107],"novel":[108],"framework":[109,140],"called":[110],"<italic":[111],"xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"":[112],"xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\">rare-event-based":[113],"analysis</i>":[116],"(REGSA)":[117],"prioritizes":[119],"PDF":[122],"parameters":[123],"impact":[125],"operating":[130],"state.":[131],"We":[132],"improve":[134],"computational":[136],"efficiency":[137],"this":[139],"by":[141],"quantifying":[142],"probabilities":[145],"through":[146],"subset":[147],"simulation":[148],"using":[150],"sparse":[151],"polynomial":[152],"chaos":[153],"expansion":[154],"(SPCE)":[155],"REGSA":[157],"(hereafter":[158],"referred":[159],"as":[161],"SPCE-REGSA).":[162],"The":[163],"simulations":[164],"reveal":[165],"excellent":[167],"performance":[168],"proposed":[171],"method.":[172]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-03-27T05:58:40.876381","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
