{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3134130864","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tevc.2021.3063217","title":"From Prediction to Prescription: Evolutionary Optimization of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in the COVID-19 Pandemic","display_name":"From Prediction to Prescription: Evolutionary Optimization of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in the COVID-19 Pandemic","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-03-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3134130864","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tevc.2021.3063217","mag":"3134130864"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8545006","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8545006","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Trans Evol Comput","raw_type":"Text"},"type":"article","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8545006","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020441009","display_name":"Risto Miikkulainen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0062-0037"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I86519309","display_name":"The University of Texas at Austin","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj54h04","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I86519309"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I163361683","display_name":"Cognizant (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/036s7bw54","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"","raw_affiliation_strings":["Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","Department of Computer Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I86519309"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002978952","display_name":"Olivier Francon","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I163361683","display_name":"Cognizant (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/036s7bw54","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"","raw_affiliation_strings":["Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020821744","display_name":"Elliot Meyerson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1871-2757"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I163361683","display_name":"Cognizant (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/036s7bw54","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"","raw_affiliation_strings":["Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102019018","display_name":"Xin Qiu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5358-8854"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I163361683","display_name":"Cognizant (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/036s7bw54","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"","raw_affiliation_strings":["Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085148933","display_name":"Darren Sargent","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I163361683","display_name":"Cognizant (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/036s7bw54","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"","raw_affiliation_strings":["Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5055554552","display_name":"Elisa Canzani","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I163361683","display_name":"Cognizant (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/036s7bw54","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"","raw_affiliation_strings":["Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035553462","display_name":"Babak Hodjat","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4547-4731"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I163361683","display_name":"Cognizant (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/036s7bw54","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"","raw_affiliation_strings":["Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolutionary AI Research Group, Cognizant Technology Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5020441009"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I163361683","https://openalex.org/I86519309"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.267,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":43,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92738801,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.968500018119812,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11810","display_name":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","score":0.9304999709129333,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic","display_name":"Pandemic","score":0.8071563839912415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.7034133672714233},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychological-intervention","display_name":"Psychological intervention","score":0.662445068359375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medical-prescription","display_name":"Medical prescription","score":0.5466925501823425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5228712558746338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/social-distance","display_name":"Social distance","score":0.5209135413169861},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intervention","display_name":"Intervention (counseling)","score":0.5154308080673218},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/evolutionary-algorithm","display_name":"Evolutionary algorithm","score":0.4953516721725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2019-20-coronavirus-outbreak","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","score":0.4899269938468933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","score":0.4339796006679535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","score":0.3417890965938568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.2963399887084961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.28779536485671997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.09280860424041748},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nursing","display_name":"Nursing","score":0.08368229866027832}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.8071563839912415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7034133672714233},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.662445068359375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2426938","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3355478","display_name":"Medical prescription","level":2,"score":0.5466925501823425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5228712558746338},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C172656115","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2142613","display_name":"Social distance","level":5,"score":0.5209135413169861},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780665704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q959298","display_name":"Intervention (counseling)","level":2,"score":0.5154308080673218},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159149176","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q14489129","display_name":"Evolutionary algorithm","level":2,"score":0.4953516721725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.4899269938468933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.4339796006679535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.3417890965938568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2963399887084961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.28779536485671997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.09280860424041748},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159110408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121176","display_name":"Nursing","level":1,"score":0.08368229866027832},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8545006","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8545006","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Trans Evol Comput","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8545006","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8545006","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Trans Evol Comput","raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.5,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":67,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W582134693","https://openalex.org/W1522301498","https://openalex.org/W1567512734","https://openalex.org/W1568845561","https://openalex.org/W1591801644","https://openalex.org/W1689711448","https://openalex.org/W1966253115","https://openalex.org/W1982306896","https://openalex.org/W2011174137","https://openalex.org/W2013695155","https://openalex.org/W2023626239","https://openalex.org/W2030539428","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2066790509","https://openalex.org/W2071802245","https://openalex.org/W2073627497","https://openalex.org/W2101234009","https://openalex.org/W2113553269","https://openalex.org/W2123026146","https://openalex.org/W2125270265","https://openalex.org/W2125930537","https://openalex.org/W2126105956","https://openalex.org/W2131241448","https://openalex.org/W2148301044","https://openalex.org/W2156106639","https://openalex.org/W2184201068","https://openalex.org/W2405244965","https://openalex.org/W2590078953","https://openalex.org/W2593744649","https://openalex.org/W2739491397","https://openalex.org/W2773474358","https://openalex.org/W2807637204","https://openalex.org/W2885311373","https://openalex.org/W2888985868","https://openalex.org/W2891186800","https://openalex.org/W2906697496","https://openalex.org/W2909418179","https://openalex.org/W2950995823","https://openalex.org/W2957258712","https://openalex.org/W2962908092","https://openalex.org/W2963216850","https://openalex.org/W2963557251","https://openalex.org/W2964059111","https://openalex.org/W2964121744","https://openalex.org/W2964212578","https://openalex.org/W2992706491","https://openalex.org/W2995333506","https://openalex.org/W3014725674","https://openalex.org/W3015056889","https://openalex.org/W3015475346","https://openalex.org/W3016236951","https://openalex.org/W3017788116","https://openalex.org/W3018392983","https://openalex.org/W3018807993","https://openalex.org/W3020436856","https://openalex.org/W3020705943","https://openalex.org/W3023441241","https://openalex.org/W3025452085","https://openalex.org/W3026903838","https://openalex.org/W3031738512","https://openalex.org/W3037303248","https://openalex.org/W3038866149","https://openalex.org/W3080426607","https://openalex.org/W3096419685","https://openalex.org/W3100814079","https://openalex.org/W4246352495","https://openalex.org/W4289763970"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3127156785","https://openalex.org/W3009669391","https://openalex.org/W4200329650","https://openalex.org/W4205215807","https://openalex.org/W3005417802","https://openalex.org/W4205754011","https://openalex.org/W4226296940","https://openalex.org/W3028835529","https://openalex.org/W3036314732","https://openalex.org/W3134376730"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Several":[0],"models":[1],"have":[2],"been":[3],"developed":[4],"to":[5,40,59,88,95,114],"predict":[6],"how":[7,13,34],"the":[8,42,86,90,93,109,151],"COVID-19":[9,160],"pandemic":[10,91],"spreads,":[11],"and":[12,26,28,67,82,84,92,105,112,129],"it":[14,56],"could":[15],"be":[16,38,77,115,127,137,154],"contained":[17],"with":[18,70,159],"nonpharmaceutical":[19],"interventions,":[20],"such":[21],"as":[22,161,163],"social":[23],"distancing":[24],"restrictions":[25,107,125,135],"school":[27,106],"business":[29],"closures.":[30],"This":[31],"article":[32],"demonstrates":[33],"evolutionary":[35,53],"AI":[36],"can":[37,76,126,136,153],"used":[39],"facilitate":[41],"next":[43],"step,":[44],"i.e.,":[45],"determining":[46],"most":[47,110],"effective":[48],"intervention":[49],"strategies":[50,66,75],"automatically.":[51],"Through":[52],"surrogate-assisted":[54],"prescription,":[55],"is":[57],"possible":[58,164],"generate":[60],"a":[61],"large":[62],"number":[63],"of":[64,123],"candidate":[65],"evaluate":[68],"them":[69,143],"predictive":[71],"models.":[72],"In":[73],"principle,":[74],"customized":[78],"for":[79],"different":[80],"countries":[81],"locales,":[83],"balance":[85],"need":[87,94,113],"contain":[89],"minimize":[96],"their":[97],"economic":[98],"impact.":[99],"Early":[100],"experiments":[101],"suggest":[102,130],"that":[103,121],"workplace":[104],"are":[108],"important":[111],"designed":[116],"carefully.":[117],"They":[118],"also":[119],"demonstrate":[120],"results":[122],"lifting":[124],"unreliable,":[128],"creative":[131],"ways":[132],"in":[133,157],"which":[134],"implemented":[138],"softly,":[139],"e.g.,":[140],"by":[141],"alternating":[142],"over":[144],"time.":[145],"As":[146],"more":[147],"data":[148],"becomes":[149],"available,":[150],"approach":[152],"increasingly":[155],"useful":[156],"dealing":[158],"well":[162],"future":[165],"pandemics.":[166]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-04-28T14:05:53.105641","created_date":"2021-03-15T00:00:00"}
