{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3208352000","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcyb.2021.3120967","title":"Dynamic Hybrid Model to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Using LSTM and Behavioral Models Under Uncertainty","display_name":"Dynamic Hybrid Model to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Using LSTM and Behavioral Models Under Uncertainty","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-11-04","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3208352000","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcyb.2021.3120967","mag":"3208352000","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34735351"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/tcyb.2021.3120967","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcyb.2021.3120967","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210191041","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics","issn_l":"2168-2267","issn":["2168-2267","2168-2275"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12270","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044200395","display_name":"Seid Miad Zandavi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3015-5962"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I31746571","display_name":"UNSW Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03r8z3t63","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Seid Miad Zandavi","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084992100","display_name":"Taha Hossein Rashidi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0673-5011"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I31746571","display_name":"UNSW Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03r8z3t63","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Taha Hossein Rashidi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Research Center for Integrated Transport Innovation, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0673-5011","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Research Center for Integrated Transport Innovation, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090363651","display_name":"Fatemeh Vafaee","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7521-2417"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I31746571","display_name":"UNSW Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03r8z3t63","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fatemeh Vafaee","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences and the Data Science Hub, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7521-2417","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences and the Data Science Hub, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.095,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":17,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.76681407,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"52","issue":"11","first_page":"11977","last_page":"11989"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9987000226974487,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9987000226974487,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9950000047683716,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11775","display_name":"COVID-19 diagnosis using AI","score":0.9940000176429749,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2741","display_name":"Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.7571433186531067},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5123032331466675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","score":0.45899254083633423},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2019-20-coronavirus-outbreak","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","score":0.43566611409187317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.432700514793396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.23244690895080566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/biology","display_name":"Biology","score":0.13576143980026245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.11390545964241028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.081764817237854}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7571433186531067},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5123032331466675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.45899254083633423},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.43566611409187317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.432700514793396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.23244690895080566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.13576143980026245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.11390545964241028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.081764817237854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000086382","descriptor_name":"COVID-19","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016571","descriptor_name":"Neural Networks, Computer","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D035501","descriptor_name":"Uncertainty","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/tcyb.2021.3120967","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcyb.2021.3120967","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210191041","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics","issn_l":"2168-2267","issn":["2168-2267","2168-2275"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:34735351","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34735351","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE transactions on cybernetics","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2005.12270","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12270","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12270","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2005.12270","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12270","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12270","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","score":0.6399999856948853}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320965","display_name":"University of New South Wales","ror":"https://ror.org/03r8z3t63"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":55,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1553765580","https://openalex.org/W1598796236","https://openalex.org/W1811254738","https://openalex.org/W1895577753","https://openalex.org/W1905882502","https://openalex.org/W1969765329","https://openalex.org/W1975132434","https://openalex.org/W1981780459","https://openalex.org/W1990990266","https://openalex.org/W1994857970","https://openalex.org/W2030805284","https://openalex.org/W2096145431","https://openalex.org/W2100656616","https://openalex.org/W2102113734","https://openalex.org/W2102842925","https://openalex.org/W2110943126","https://openalex.org/W2113258333","https://openalex.org/W2116261113","https://openalex.org/W2122585011","https://openalex.org/W2130942839","https://openalex.org/W2136848157","https://openalex.org/W2145603505","https://openalex.org/W2163922914","https://openalex.org/W2193964535","https://openalex.org/W2206445424","https://openalex.org/W2278743438","https://openalex.org/W2582498274","https://openalex.org/W2605239008","https://openalex.org/W2607150872","https://openalex.org/W2747968860","https://openalex.org/W2754252319","https://openalex.org/W2949227310","https://openalex.org/W2963358957","https://openalex.org/W2967154275","https://openalex.org/W2972212082","https://openalex.org/W3005529452","https://openalex.org/W3009155494","https://openalex.org/W3009468976","https://openalex.org/W3011700227","https://openalex.org/W3012284084","https://openalex.org/W3013991687","https://openalex.org/W3021303430","https://openalex.org/W3022305970","https://openalex.org/W3022828817","https://openalex.org/W3036309913","https://openalex.org/W3038807872","https://openalex.org/W3049695387","https://openalex.org/W3097838604","https://openalex.org/W3102761030","https://openalex.org/W3120117568","https://openalex.org/W4238086324","https://openalex.org/W6607974698","https://openalex.org/W6633204288","https://openalex.org/W6675365184","https://openalex.org/W6679436768"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3036314732","https://openalex.org/W3009669391","https://openalex.org/W4382894326","https://openalex.org/W3198183218","https://openalex.org/W3171943759","https://openalex.org/W3176864053","https://openalex.org/W4206669628","https://openalex.org/W4292098121","https://openalex.org/W3154141118","https://openalex.org/W4388896133"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"To":[0],"accurately":[1,165],"predict":[2,166],"the":[3,40,44,51,54,63,70,74,81,87,90,96,101,116,120,128,139,153,161,167,174],"regional":[4,158],"spread":[5,52],"of":[6,53,65,76,89,119,138,173,180],"coronavirus":[7],"disease":[8],"2019":[9],"(COVID-19)":[10],"infection,":[11,176],"this":[12],"study":[13],"proposes":[14],"a":[15,21,145],"novel":[16],"hybrid":[17,125,140],"model,":[18],"which":[19],"combines":[20],"long":[22],"short-term":[23,168],"memory":[24],"(LSTM)":[25],"artificial":[26],"recurrent":[27],"neural":[28],"network":[29],"with":[30],"dynamic":[31],"behavioral":[32],"models.":[33],"Several":[34],"factors":[35,67],"and":[36,43,78,187],"control":[37],"strategies":[38],"affect":[39],"virus":[41],"spread,":[42],"uncertainty":[45],"arising":[46],"from":[47],"confounding":[48],"variables":[49],"underlying":[50],"COVID-19":[55,175],"infection":[56],"is":[57,178],"substantial.":[58],"The":[59,92,124,136],"proposed":[60,97,162],"model":[61,98,126,130,163],"considers":[62],"effect":[64],"multiple":[66],"to":[68,151,169],"enhance":[69],"accuracy":[71],"in":[72],"predicting":[73],"number":[75],"cases":[77],"deaths":[79],"across":[80],"top":[82],"ten":[83],"most-affected":[84],"countries":[85],"at":[86],"time":[88],"study.":[91],"results":[93],"show":[94],"that":[95,105],"closely":[99],"replicates":[100,115],"test":[102],"data,":[103],"such":[104],"not":[106],"only":[107],"it":[108,113,177],"provides":[109],"accurate":[110],"predictions":[111],"but":[112],"also":[114],"daily":[117,171],"behavior":[118],"system":[121],"under":[122],"uncertainty.":[123],"outperforms":[127],"LSTM":[129],"while":[131,156],"accounting":[132],"for":[133,148,183],"data":[134],"limitation.":[135],"parameters":[137],"models":[141],"are":[142],"optimized":[143],"using":[144],"genetic":[146],"algorithm":[147],"each":[149],"country":[150],"improve":[152],"prediction":[154],"power":[155],"considering":[157],"properties.":[159],"Since":[160],"can":[164],"medium-term":[170],"spreading":[172],"capable":[179],"being":[181],"used":[182],"policy":[184],"assessment,":[185],"planning,":[186],"decision":[188],"making.":[189]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
